Barrick Mining Corporation · B · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Barrick: record cash flow meets safety and execution risks

The current analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong gold-price exposure, higher volumes, record cash generation, Fourmile potential, and cost-reduction efforts support the growth case. That case depends on improving safety and Nevada reliability while executing project, financing, and asset-sale plans.

Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials $67.19B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.58 Consensus $0.57
EPS surprise +1.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.18B Consensus $4.41B
Revenue surprise -5.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.2% Event window
SPY move +1.6% Same window
Abnormal move +3.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +17.6% Up to 20 sessions
BSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior analysis, the emphasis shifted from broad growth-project progress and capital allocation to record Q3 cash generation, a 25% dividend increase, expanded buybacks, and a more urgent Nevada safety and operational review after three fatalities. Fourmile drilling and development plans also became more specific.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the current analysis says gold and copper production remain within guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Record Q3 operating cash flow, free cash flow, and earnings supported a 25% dividend increase and expanded buybacks.
  • Management highlighted Fourmile and Nevada as growth and operational priorities.
  • Three fatalities led to a renewed safety focus and an intensified operational review.
  • Copper production remained within guidance, while the Lumwana shutdown is planned and managed.

Management priorities

  • Stabilize Nevada production and improve safety through the operational review.
  • Increase Fourmile drilling and begin Bullen Hill decline development.
  • Advance Hemlo and Tongon asset sales and maintain capital returns.
  • Reschedule project capex across 2026–27 while keeping the overall schedule unchanged.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
B REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $428M Q1 '24 actual $431M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $396M Q2 '24 actual $382M, miss Q3 '24 estimate $402M Q3 '24 actual $388M, miss Q2 '25 estimate $4B Q2 '25 actual $4B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $4B Q3 '25 actual $4B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $5B Q4 '25 actual $6B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '26 actual $5B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5B Q2 '26 actual $5B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5B Q4 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '27 estimate $6B Q2 '27 estimate $6B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1666.7%
Neutral833.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$40.23Current
$38Low
$48.25Average
$57High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 16, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 9, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 14, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 13, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainAug 12, 2026
Show 19 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $40.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinBob Brackett$56.5$44.1 +40.4%Sep 9, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$42$41.24 +4.4%Aug 13, 2026
ScotiabankTanya Jakusconek$55$41.09 +36.7%Aug 12, 2026
CIBCAnalyst unavailable$57$41 +41.7%Aug 12, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$39$35.89 -3.1%Jul 15, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Barrick Mining Corporation primarily focuses on the entire lifecycle of mineral assets, from their initial discovery and subsequent development to their extraction and eventual sale. The company actively explores for a variety of commodities, including precious metals like gold and silver, industrial metals such as copper, and other materials used for energy production. Previously identified as Barrick Gold Corporation, the organization officially adopted its current name, Barrick Mining Corporation, in May 2025. The company was founded in 1983 and has its corporate headquarters situated in Toronto, Canada.

Historical context

All B earnings

Basic Materials peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 0.0% -6.2% Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T22:56:08.786369+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T22:56:08.783351+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.