Aurora Innovation, Inc. · AUR · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Aurora advances commercial ramp as execution risks remain

Aurora’s Q3 update supports the case that customer demand and regulatory progress can underpin commercial growth, but the thesis remains dependent on manufacturing execution, component availability, contracted demand, and cash discipline.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $10.20B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.12 Consensus $-0.12
EPS surprise +3.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.0M Consensus $3.0M
Revenue surprise +0.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move -0.6% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -0.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 0.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
AURSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management described progress toward 20 trucks per week by early December, highlighted a potential 500-truck Charger Logistics DaaS deployment, and added regulatory and product milestones. The production ramp had been delayed by six weeks because of material availability and component quality issues.

Guidance delta

Maintained

Key takeaways

  • Commercial scaling remains the central focus, with a target of 20 trucks per week by early December and 1,000 trucks on the road in 2027.
  • Demand evidence improved through the Charger Logistics DaaS MOU and a broader 2027–28 pipeline, although converting MOUs and pipeline into firm orders remains important.
  • Regulatory progress included a five-year FMCSA exemption for cab-mounted warning beacons and new weigh-station traversal capability.
  • Revenue increased modestly to $3 million, while the company reported a sizable operating loss and continued to emphasize liquidity and cash-burn guidance.
  • Volvo, PACCAR, Roush, and AUMOVIO remain critical partners for manufacturing scale and future hardware industrialization.

Management priorities

  • Reach a 20-truck-per-week production rate and support the planned 2027 fleet expansion.
  • Convert DaaS pipeline and MOUs into firm orders while expanding deployments with carriers.
  • Advance Volvo and PACCAR industrialization and develop the third-generation hardware kit with AUMOVIO.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AUR EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $-0.13 Q2 '24 actual $-0.12, match Q3 '24 estimate $-0.11 Q3 '24 actual $-0.13, miss Q2 '25 estimate $-0.12 Q2 '25 actual $-0.11, match Q3 '25 estimate $-0.12 Q3 '25 actual $-0.11, match Q4 '25 estimate $-0.12 Q4 '25 actual $-0.12, match Q1 '26 estimate $-0.12 Q1 '26 actual $-0.11, match Q2 '26 estimate $-0.12 Q2 '26 actual $-0.14, miss Q3 '26 estimate $-0.12 Q3 '26 actual $-0.12, match Q4 '26 estimate $-0.12 Q1 '27 estimate $-0.11
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy10 ratings
Bullish660.0%
Neutral440.0%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$5.09Previous close
$5Low
$13.25Average
$18High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 8, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 24, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 24, 2026
Canaccord Genuity Buy BuyMaintainSep 24, 2026
Amerx Hold HoldMaintainSep 24, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 11, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainMay 7, 2026
Evercore ISI Group In Line In LineMaintainFeb 18, 2025
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 29, 2022
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $5.09. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
OppenheimerColin Rusch$16$5.72 +214.3%Oct 8, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$7$6.32 +37.5%Sep 24, 2026
Canaccord GenuityGeorge Gianarikas$17$6.32 +234.0%Sep 24, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$18$6.33 +253.6%Sep 11, 2026
Craig-HallumAnalyst unavailable$18$6.84 +253.6%Jun 5, 2026
Northland SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$11$7.07 +116.1%May 29, 2026
Morgan StanleyRavi Shanker$14$7.12 +175.0%May 7, 2026
Goldman SachsMark Delaney$5$5.17 -1.8%Apr 17, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$4$3.92 -21.4%Nov 26, 2025
OppenheimerColin Rusch$15$5.2 +194.7%Oct 29, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$12$6.94 +135.8%Mar 3, 2025
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Aurora Innovation, Inc. is a U.S.-based company specializing in autonomous driving technology. Its primary focus involves creating the Aurora Driver, an advanced platform that integrates various self-driving hardware components, software systems, and data services. This comprehensive solution is engineered to enable and unify autonomous capabilities across diverse vehicle types, including passenger automobiles, light commercial vans, and heavy-duty trucks. The company was founded in 2017 and maintains its headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T04:06:42.326686+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-29T01:23:20.584741+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-29T11:30:44.606498+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-29T11:30:44.603713+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.