ATI Inc. · ATI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

ATI raises EBITDA outlook as aerospace and defense demand strengthens

ATI's Q1 commentary supports a constructive near-term operating outlook: pricing and mix, aerospace and defense demand, and specialty-energy contracts are lifting margins and visibility. The key test is whether capacity additions and contract timing convert that demand into sustained earnings growth.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $22.49B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.00 Consensus $0.88
EPS surprise +14.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.15B Consensus $1.19B
Revenue surprise -3.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.3% Event window
SPY move +1.0% Same window
Abnormal move +5.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +12.7% Up to 20 sessions
ATISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $35 million to $1.01 billion-$1.06 billion, while highlighting a record backlog and new long-term nuclear-materials agreements. The quarter also featured stronger margin performance, but revenue was below consensus and several expansion and contract-timing questions remain.

Guidance delta

Raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $35 million to a target range of $1.01 billion-$1.06 billion.

Key takeaways

  • Management reported a 20% Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin, more than 300 basis points higher year over year.
  • Backlog increased 10% sequentially to a record $4.1 billion, improving visibility into the second half.
  • Demand support came from jet engines, defense missiles, naval nuclear work and specialty-energy applications.
  • Nickel remelt and primary VIM capacity additions are intended to support future growth, with timing and execution still important.

Management priorities

  • Execute nickel remelt and primary VIM capacity additions.
  • Continue qualifying premium titanium for engine applications.
  • Expand missile-related production capacity for anticipated long-term contracts.
  • Maintain disciplined capital allocation, including share repurchases funded through cash flow.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ATI EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.62 Q4 '23 actual $0.64, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.41 Q1 '24 actual $0.48, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.58 Q2 '24 actual $0.60, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.66 Q3 '24 actual $0.60, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.72 Q2 '25 actual $0.74, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.73 Q3 '25 actual $0.85, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.89 Q4 '25 actual $0.93, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.88 Q1 '26 actual $1.00, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.03 Q3 '26 estimate $1.37 Q4 '26 estimate $1.52 Q1 '27 estimate $1.40

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy30 ratings
Bullish2066.7%
Neutral930.0%
Bearish13.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$165.59Current
$45Low
$185.25Average
$275High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 30, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 8, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 30, 2026
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainAug 7, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 13, 2026
Show 25 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $165.59. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
KeyBancSamuel McKinney$228$189.19 +37.7%Oct 8, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$258$230.08 +55.8%Aug 12, 2026
Deutsche BankScott Deuschle$262$232 +58.2%Aug 10, 2026
Wells FargoDavid Strauss$275$227.84 +66.1%Aug 10, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$265$223.43 +60.0%Aug 7, 2026
See 27 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Globally, ATI Inc. stands as a premier manufacturer and supplier of specialized materials and complex components. The enterprise's operations are strategically divided into two primary divisions: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment is responsible for creating a diverse range of advanced substances, including titanium and its numerous alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys (such as superalloys), sophisticated powdered alloys, and other distinctive specialty materials. These are offered in elongated product forms like ingots, billets, bars, rods, wires, various structural shapes, rectangular sections, and seamless tubing.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T14:50:41.145449+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T14:50:41.142708+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.