Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2659.1%
Neutral1534.1%
Bearish36.8%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
ASML Holding N.V. · ASML · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
ASML: EUV demand strengthens, while execution risks remain
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: AI-driven advanced-logic and memory demand, EUV adoption and capacity expansion provide a credible growth foundation, while China normalisation, organisational change, supply-chain readiness and High NA execution could limit delivery.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$635.94B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$8.55
Consensus $9.04
EPS surprise
-5.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$11.61B
Consensus $11.19B
Revenue surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.9%
Up to 20 sessions
ASMLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ASML FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ASML fall 2.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in ASML's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ASML after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds a major technology-organisation reorganisation, continued EUV-led demand, a more explicit capacity-expansion plan and a normalising China contribution. Relative to the prior analysis, the growth case is more developed, but execution and transition risks are also more prominent.
Guidance delta
Maintained: the outlook remains supported by EUV-led demand, while China normalisation, supply capacity and product execution remain important watchpoints.
Key takeaways
- AI-related advanced-logic and memory demand remains the central growth driver in the analysis.
- EUV momentum and capacity expansion support the outlook, with Low NA tools prominent in near-term shipments.
- Management is simplifying the technology organisation while adding engineering capacity.
- China demand is normalising, and supply-chain execution plus High NA timing remain key risks.
Management priorities
- Scale EUV capacity for advanced logic and memory demand
- Develop the platform roadmap spanning Low NA, High NA and future Hyper NA optics
- Expand manufacturing and service capacity in Eindhoven, Korea and the United States
- Increase engineering capacity and deepen the Mistral AI collaboration
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,657.44Current
$800Low
$1,580.47Average
$2,623High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 15, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 29, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 20, 2024 |
| New Street Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 8, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 20, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2021 |
| ABN Amro | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2019 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| BlueFin | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 16, 2018 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 19, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2016 |
| Summit Research Partners | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Summit Insights Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2015 |
| SNS Securities | Accumulate | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 21, 2015 |
| Liberum | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2015 |
| Pacific Crest | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 6, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 27, 2014 |
| Northland Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2014 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Cautious | Maintain | Apr 16, 2014 |
| LBBW Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 23, 2014 |
| Commerzbank | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Jan 22, 2014 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 26, 2013 |
| Baader Bank | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2013 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2013 |
| Caris & Co. | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2012 | |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,657.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | $2,100 | $1,803.25 | +26.7% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $2,100 | $1,838.44 | +26.7% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $2,500 | $1,815.27 | +50.8% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $2,000 | $1,726.04 | +20.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Dai | $2,623 | $1,769.32 | +58.3% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe Quatrochi | $2,200 | $1,929.68 | +32.7% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | $1,700 | $1,481.77 | +2.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,750 | $1,481.77 | +5.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | $1,625 | $1,437.89 | -2.0% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Dai | $1,911 | $1,422.92 | +15.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Dai | $1,642 | $1,360.09 | -0.9% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,450 | $1,263.72 | -12.5% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Leon Chen | $1,415 | $1,263.72 | -14.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,263.72 | -6.5% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,528 | $1,163.78 | -7.8% | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Timm Schulze-Melander | $1,200 | $1,021.31 | -27.6% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,140 | $1,009.81 | -31.2% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $1,150 | $980.54 | -30.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $935 | $987.81 | -43.6% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $800 | $754.45 | -51.7% | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe Quatrochi | $790 | $683.52 | -52.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Didier Scemama | $939 | $683.52 | -43.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Srini Pajjuri | $1,100 | $872.27 | -33.6% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $1,000 | $872.05 | -39.7% | Apr 22, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Sara Russo | $1,052 | $992.18 | -36.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $576.44 | -59.9% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe Quatrochi | $600 | $533.86 | -63.8% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $590 | $452.95 | -64.4% | Jul 10, 2022 |
Track every rating change on ASML the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze…
Historical context
All ASML earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.8% | Wipro keeps AI strategy central as margins improve |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -2.8% | TSMC demand remains strong as 2nm ramp weighs on margins |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +7.2% | Ericsson Q3: Growth and AI progress offset cost and RAN risks |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
Get the ASML recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-15T22:50:42.535980+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-15T22:50:42.532354+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-15. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.