Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish2578.1%
Neutral721.9%
Bearish00.0%
Ares Capital Corporation · ARCC · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
ARCC’s dividend case rests on earnings coverage and credit discipline
Management’s account supports a resilient dividend and investment-income thesis: core earnings covered the payout, credit indicators were described as strong, and realized gains added support. The counterweight is potential earnings pressure from lower rates or spread compression, alongside ongoing questions about dividend coverage and exits.
Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services
$13.80B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.50
Consensus $0.50
EPS surprise
-0.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$655.0M
Consensus $768.1M
Revenue surprise
-14.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.1%
Up to 20 sessions
ARCCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ARCC FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ARCC rise 1.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in ARCC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ARCC after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current call continued to emphasize stable core earnings and dividend coverage, while reporting a stronger contribution from realized gains. Management also described continued focus on origination, equity co-investments and AI-assisted software underwriting; the supplied analysis does not establish whether those initiatives have yet changed portfolio results.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management reiterated the current dividend level and cited spillover income as a cushion, while discussing only a potential modest increase in leverage.
Key takeaways
- Management said core earnings comfortably exceeded the dividend, supporting payout stability.
- Realized investment gains supported NAV; management highlighted a gain tied to the Potomac Energy restructuring.
- The transcript analysis describes credit metrics as strong, with low non-accruals and portfolio EBITDA growth.
- Leverage was described as below management’s target range, leaving flexibility but also drawing analyst attention.
Management priorities
- Maintain the dividend and use spillover income as a buffer.
- Continue origination and equity co-investment activity.
- Expand use of Ivy Hill and SDLP, and apply AI to software underwriting.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$19.11Current
$19Low
$21.71Average
$24High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jun 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 6, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 3, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2020 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 27, 2020 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 13, 2020 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 2, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 19, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 4, 2016 |
| National Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 28, 2016 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2015 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 29, 2015 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 3, 2015 |
| Keefe, Bruyette& Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2015 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 4, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2013 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 4, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2012 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $19.11. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Finian O'Shea | $19 | $19.07 | -0.6% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $20.8 | +20.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Finian O'Shea | $21 | $20.57 | +9.9% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $19.44 | +9.9% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $22.5 | $19.1 | +17.7% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.66 | +20.4% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| B.Riley Financial | Sean-Paul Adams | $23.5 | $22.54 | +23.0% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Devin Ryan | $22 | $20.89 | +15.1% | Jul 30, 2024 |
| UBS | Doug Harter | $22 | $21.07 | +15.1% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Kanneth Lee | $22 | $21.3 | +15.1% | May 23, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $20.02 | +15.1% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $20.5 | $20.04 | +7.3% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $21.5 | $19.8 | +12.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Hovde Group | Bryce Rowe | $21 | $19.8 | +9.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $21.81 | +20.4% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $24 | $20.5 | +25.6% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Barclays | Mark Devries | $20 | $18.64 | +4.7% | Jul 29, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Henry Coffey | $21 | $18.04 | +9.9% | Apr 29, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ARCC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAres Capital Corporation (ARCC) operates as a Business Development Company (BDC), delivering diverse financing solutions predominantly to middle-market enterprises. The firm's expertise lies in facilitating various corporate actions, including funding acquisitions, recapitalizations, and leveraged buyouts. It also extends mezzanine debt, assists with corporate restructurings, and provides crucial rescue financing, in addition to offering growth capital and general refinancing options. ARCC primarily targets investments in companies within the basic and growth manufacturing, business services, consumer products, healthcare (both products and services), and information technology service sectors. Opportunistically, it also explores prospects in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and the broader technology space. Geographically, ARCC maintains a broad reach across the United States. Its New York office oversees investments in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Southwest regions.…
Historical context
All ARCC earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| NWG NatWest Group plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | -9.0% | NatWest maintains guidance as Q3 growth and capital remain strong |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
| TPG TPG Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.3% | +7.5% | TPG raises FRE margin outlook as capital formation accelerates |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +2.9% | AJG: Q3 growth and AssuredPartners synergies support outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the ARCC recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T22:40:41.206428+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T22:40:41.203710+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.