Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy29 ratings
Bullish1965.5%
Neutral931.0%
Bearish13.5%
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · AJG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
AJG Q4 2024: Growth Holds, M&A Drives the Outlook
AJG's Q4 analysis supports a constructive operating picture: double-digit organic growth, reaffirmed 2025 guidance and continued M&A activity. The main checks are acquisition execution, seasonality and casualty or wildfire exposure.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$60.09B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.05
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $2.70B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+0.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+13.2%
Up to 20 sessions
AJGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AJG FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AJG's +0.9% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in AJG's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AJG after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The Q4 analysis highlights 12% revenue growth, double-digit organic growth across segments, a reaffirmed 6%-8% 2025 organic-growth range and a pending AssuredPartners transaction. It also notes an approximately $650 million annualized tuck-in pipeline.
Guidance delta
Maintained: 2025 Brokerage and Risk Management organic-growth expectations remain 6%-8%; expected Risk Management EBITDAC margin is 20.5%.
Key takeaways
- Fourth-quarter revenue growth and double-digit organic growth were reported across all segments in the supplied analysis.
- Management reaffirmed 6%-8% organic-growth expectations for both Brokerage and Risk Management in 2025.
- AssuredPartners remained pending, while the analysis also identified approximately $650 million of annualized tuck-in acquisition opportunities.
- The operating case is constructive, but acquisition execution, seasonality and catastrophe or casualty exposure remain important checks.
Management priorities
- Close and integrate the AssuredPartners acquisition.
- Pursue additional tuck-in acquisitions from the identified pipeline.
- Invest in technology and AI for service-centre efficiency while expanding international retail brokerage.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$233.92Previous close
$145Low
$274.15Average
$334High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 11, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 31, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 13, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Dec 12, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 18, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 18, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 20, 2020 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2016 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2016 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 10, 2014 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 2, 2014 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 28, 2014 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $233.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $284 | $232.7 | +21.4% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $229.85 | +19.7% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $271 | $229.85 | +15.9% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $260 | $228.91 | +11.1% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $227.45 | +21.8% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $291 | $229.64 | +24.4% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $248.04 | +24.8% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $290 | $248.36 | +24.0% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Kevin Heal | $300 | $253.32 | +28.2% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $247.3 | +15.4% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $299 | $249.42 | +27.8% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $287 | $256.46 | +22.7% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $276 | $253.83 | +18.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Rowland Mayor | $300 | $256.39 | +28.2% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $253 | +28.2% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $287 | $256.61 | +22.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $291 | $253.52 | +24.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $292 | $249.77 | +24.8% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $255 | $252.44 | +9.0% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $220.14 | +13.3% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $212.52 | +6.9% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $203.61 | +2.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $202.19 | +13.3% | May 7, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $216.1 | -3.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $211 | $206.4 | -9.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $219.12 | +10.7% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $216.51 | -3.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $249.37 | +21.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $271 | $250.75 | +15.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $249 | $245.84 | +6.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $245.84 | +27.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $277 | $257 | +18.4% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $282 | $257 | +20.6% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $311 | $264.84 | +33.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $275 | $264.84 | +17.6% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $259 | +5.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $292 | $259 | +24.8% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $262.77 | +16.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $328 | $253.39 | +40.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $252.64 | +28.2% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $251.52 | +16.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $285 | $251.98 | +21.8% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $252.12 | +25.3% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Tracy Benguigui | $289 | $251.98 | +23.5% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $334 | $251.98 | +42.8% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $251.38 | +19.7% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $276 | $256.19 | +18.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $255.46 | +19.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $344 | $245.41 | +47.1% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $248.72 | +6.9% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $295 | $246.23 | +26.1% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $315 | $244.82 | +34.7% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $353 | $262.03 | +50.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $340 | $305.84 | +45.3% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $329 | $297.91 | +40.6% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $365 | $297.91 | +56.0% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $290 | $301.82 | +24.0% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $313 | $304.29 | +33.8% | Nov 25, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $325 | $281.45 | +38.9% | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $293 | $294.94 | +25.3% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $274 | $293.16 | +17.1% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $300 | $279.45 | +28.2% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $320 | $282.2 | +36.8% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $300 | $297.75 | +28.2% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $320 | $283.58 | +36.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $265 | $282.14 | +13.3% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $310 | $280.9 | +32.5% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $254 | $273.97 | +8.6% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $290 | $254.52 | +24.0% | Jun 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $270 | $249.5 | +15.4% | May 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $252 | $234.21 | +7.7% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $255 | $244.13 | +9.0% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $196.32 | -2.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $190.17 | -8.1% | Dec 29, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $193.11 | -3.8% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $196.28 | -12.8% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $211 | $158.74 | -9.8% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $168.49 | -16.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $211 | $179.33 | -9.8% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| UBS | Weston Bloomer | $192 | $179.5 | -17.9% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $205 | $183.22 | -12.4% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $151 | $166.64 | -35.4% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Phil Stefano | $145 | $137.99 | -38.0% | Jul 30, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArthur J. Gallagher & Co., alongside its various subsidiaries, operates globally, providing a wide array of services that encompass insurance brokerage, expert consulting, and outsourced claims settlement and administration. Its geographic reach extends across the United States, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, India, and the United Kingdom. The company's business model is divided into two primary segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage division manages both retail and wholesale insurance operations. It also supports other brokers, including independent ones, in securing specialized or hard-to-place insurance coverage. This segment functions as a wholesale broker, managing general agent (MGA), and managing general underwriter (MGU) to distribute tailored insurance products to underwriting firms.…
Historical context
All AJG earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-16T00:01:26.053560+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T07:30:45.068954+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T07:30:45.067103+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.