Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy12 ratings
Bullish12100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. · AHR · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
AHR: Strong 2024, with measured 2025 growth guidance
The supplied analysis provides evidence for a cautiously constructive operating thesis: strong 2024 same-store NOI growth, occupancy and revenue-per-occupied-room momentum, development plans and acquisition capacity support continued growth. The counterweight is that 2025 guidance is more measured, so execution, lease renewals, reimbursement policy and financing costs should determine whether resilience persists.
Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate
$10.50B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $552.5M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.1%
Up to 20 sessions
AHRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AHR FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AHR's -1.3% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in AHR's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AHR after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis reflects a completed strong 2024, maintained 2025 guidance and a clearer execution agenda: Trilogy development, SHOP acquisitions, capital spending and lower Medicaid exposure. The main tension is the lower 2025 NOI growth outlook relative to 2024 performance.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2025 guidance for 7–10% total same-store NOI growth and $1.56–$1.60 NFFO per share, while noting a more modest NOI outlook than 2024.
Key takeaways
- 2024 same-store NOI growth reached 17.7%, including 21.6% in Q4.
- 2025 guidance calls for 7–10% total same-store NOI growth and $1.56–$1.60 NFFO per share.
- Management highlighted Trilogy development, SHOP acquisitions and balance-sheet capacity as growth levers.
- Medicaid exposure was described as limited and being reduced.
- Lease expirations, seasonal headwinds and financing costs remain important watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Begin approximately $140 million of Trilogy development projects in 2025.
- Pursue two SHOP properties under contract and complete the Trilogy lease buyout.
- Maintain $80–$100 million of development and expansion capital expenditure.
- Continue accretive external growth while keeping leverage near 4.3x EBITDA.
- Shift toward higher-margin assisted-living and private-pay beds where appropriate.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$50.8Current
$28Low
$55.88Average
$70High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 20, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Mar 4, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $54.22 | +28.0% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $62 | $55.83 | +22.0% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $66 | $55.53 | +29.9% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $54.42 | +33.9% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $54.14 | +20.1% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $54.09 | +20.1% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Rob Simone | $70 | $56.66 | +37.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $54.78 | +24.0% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $61 | $53.83 | +20.1% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $50.46 | +14.2% | May 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Michael Carroll | $56 | $50.66 | +10.2% | May 26, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $57 | $52.13 | +12.2% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $52.24 | +18.1% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Juan Sanabria | $55 | $46.33 | +8.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $52 | $48.01 | +2.4% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $49.51 | +4.3% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $49.56 | +8.3% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ronald Kamdem | $52 | $47.87 | +2.4% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $42.47 | -1.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $41.29 | -15.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $42.49 | +0.4% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.66 | -7.5% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $46 | $42.5 | -9.4% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Michael Carroll | $45 | $40.46 | -11.4% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Joe Dickstein | $37 | $31.11 | -27.2% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $30.54 | -31.1% | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $29 | $26.51 | -42.9% | Nov 15, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $27 | $25.85 | -46.9% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Austin Wurschmidt | $28 | $25.66 | -44.9% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Austin Wurschmidt | $27 | $24.58 | -46.9% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $22 | $20.93 | -56.7% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $17 | $14.61 | -66.5% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $16 | $14.1 | -68.5% | Apr 3, 2024 |
Track every rating change on AHR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAmerican Healthcare REIT (AHR) was forged through a significant strategic consolidation, combining Griffin-American Healthcare REIT III and Griffin-American Healthcare REIT IV, along with integrating the business and operations of American Healthcare Investors. This comprehensive merger has established AHR as a leading global real estate investment trust focused on healthcare properties, boasting an impressive portfolio with a gross investment value of approximately $4.2 billion. A core strength of the company lies in its fully integrated management platform, staffed by over one hundred highly experienced and proficient professionals. Many members of this team have a long history of collaboration, dating back to 2006, and have successfully invested in and overseen healthcare real estate assets across diverse market cycles.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-13T00:00:14.471520+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T17:10:45.756892+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T17:10:45.754047+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.