American Healthcare REIT, Inc. · AHR · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

AHR: Strong 2024, with measured 2025 growth guidance

The supplied analysis provides evidence for a cautiously constructive operating thesis: strong 2024 same-store NOI growth, occupancy and revenue-per-occupied-room momentum, development plans and acquisition capacity support continued growth. The counterweight is that 2025 guidance is more measured, so execution, lease renewals, reimbursement policy and financing costs should determine whether resilience persists.

Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate $10.50B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $552.5M
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.3% Event window
SPY move +1.6% Same window
Abnormal move -2.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.1% Up to 20 sessions
AHRSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about AHR FY2024 Q4

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis reflects a completed strong 2024, maintained 2025 guidance and a clearer execution agenda: Trilogy development, SHOP acquisitions, capital spending and lower Medicaid exposure. The main tension is the lower 2025 NOI growth outlook relative to 2024 performance.

Guidance delta

Management maintained 2025 guidance for 7–10% total same-store NOI growth and $1.56–$1.60 NFFO per share, while noting a more modest NOI outlook than 2024.

Key takeaways

  • 2024 same-store NOI growth reached 17.7%, including 21.6% in Q4.
  • 2025 guidance calls for 7–10% total same-store NOI growth and $1.56–$1.60 NFFO per share.
  • Management highlighted Trilogy development, SHOP acquisitions and balance-sheet capacity as growth levers.
  • Medicaid exposure was described as limited and being reduced.
  • Lease expirations, seasonal headwinds and financing costs remain important watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Begin approximately $140 million of Trilogy development projects in 2025.
  • Pursue two SHOP properties under contract and complete the Trilogy lease buyout.
  • Maintain $80–$100 million of development and expansion capital expenditure.
  • Continue accretive external growth while keeping leverage near 4.3x EBITDA.
  • Shift toward higher-margin assisted-living and private-pay beds where appropriate.

Follow AHR with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AHR EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.29 Q4 '23 actual $-0.42, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.31 Q1 '24 actual $-0.04, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.29 Q2 '24 actual $0.01, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.40 Q2 '25 actual $0.06, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.42 Q3 '25 actual $0.33, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.15 Q4 '25 actual $0.06, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.16 Q1 '26 actual $0.13, miss Q2 '26 estimate $0.14 Q2 '26 actual $0.16, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.15 Q4 '26 estimate $0.16 Q1 '27 estimate $0.18 Q2 '27 estimate $0.20

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy12 ratings
Bullish12100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$50.8Current
$28Low
$55.88Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainSep 2, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 31, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 19, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 14, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 14, 2026
Show 7 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$65$54.22 +28.0%Sep 14, 2026
ScotiabankNicholas Yulico$62$55.83 +22.0%Sep 2, 2026
BarclaysRichard Hightower$66$55.53 +29.9%Aug 31, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$68$54.42 +33.9%Aug 19, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$61$54.14 +20.1%Aug 14, 2026
See 28 more

Track every rating change on AHR the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

American Healthcare REIT (AHR) was forged through a significant strategic consolidation, combining Griffin-American Healthcare REIT III and Griffin-American Healthcare REIT IV, along with integrating the business and operations of American Healthcare Investors. This comprehensive merger has established AHR as a leading global real estate investment trust focused on healthcare properties, boasting an impressive portfolio with a gross investment value of approximately $4.2 billion. A core strength of the company lies in its fully integrated management platform, staffed by over one hundred highly experienced and proficient professionals. Many members of this team have a long history of collaboration, dating back to 2006, and have successfully invested in and overseen healthcare real estate assets across diverse market cycles.…

Historical context

All AHR earnings

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Get the AHR recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-13T00:00:14.471520+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T17:10:45.756892+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T17:10:45.754047+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.