Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1131.4%
Neutral2160.0%
Bearish38.6%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
AGNC: Strong 2025 returns, with spreads and policy still key
The supplied analysis supports a constructive view of AGNC's earnings trajectory: strong 2025 returns, lower leverage and substantial liquidity provide support, but the outlook remains dependent on mortgage spreads, policy conditions and prepayment behavior.
Reported After market closeNASDAQReal Estate
$10.43B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise
-5.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$944.0M
Consensus $940.8M
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+3.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.2%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNC FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AGNC rise 3.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in AGNC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNC after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasizes a shift toward 70% swap-based hedges, lower 7.2x leverage and $7.6 billion of liquidity, while maintaining a flexible leverage and capital-allocation approach. Compared with the prior analysis, the focus is more explicitly on spread stability, dividend coverage and prepayment risk.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained; no numerical guidance change was supplied.
Key takeaways
- The analysis reports a 22.7% 2025 economic return and 34.8% total stock return.
- Agency MBS spread tightening and wider swap spreads supported performance.
- Leverage decreased to 7.2x, while liquidity was reported at $7.6 billion.
- Management highlighted GSE purchases, Fed policy, and diversified investor demand as supports.
Management priorities
- Deploy capital accretively while monitoring spread stability.
- Increase the proportion of swap-based hedges.
- Keep leverage flexible as the spread outlook evolves.
- Adapt capital issuance and portfolio positioning to market and policy conditions.
Follow AGNC with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$8.8Previous close
$8Low
$10.68Average
$13High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jones Trading | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2024 |
| JonesTrading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 16, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 16, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 5, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 16, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $8.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $8.68 | +13.6% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $10.79 | +36.4% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $12 | $10.97 | +36.4% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $11 | $10.97 | +25.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $13 | $11.82 | +47.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $11.57 | +30.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $10 | $11.07 | +13.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $10.5 | $9.99 | +19.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $10 | $8.61 | +13.6% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $11 | $10.6 | +25.0% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $12 | $10.56 | +36.4% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $11 | $10.04 | +25.0% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Mark Devries | $8 | $9.01 | -9.1% | Dec 11, 2023 |
| KBW | Bose George | $10.28 | $10.69 | +16.8% | Dec 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.11 | +47.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $11.41 | +30.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AGNC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAGNC Investment Corp. functions as a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT). The firm primarily concentrates its investments on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). A defining feature of these securities is that their principal and interest payments are secured by guarantees from either U.S. government-sponsored entities or federal government agencies. To fund these investments, AGNC largely depends on secured borrowings, specifically organized as repurchase agreements. The company has opted for REIT tax status under the 1986 Internal Revenue Code, which exempts it from federal corporate income taxes, contingent on distributing a minimum of 90% of its taxable profits to its shareholders. Originally established in 2008, the entity, with its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland, operated as American Capital Agency Corp. until it adopted its current name, AGNC Investment Corp., in September 2016.
Historical context
All AGNC earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNCZ: Q3 loss highlights rate volatility and hedging |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC Q3: Rate Volatility Drove a -12.7% Economic Return |
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while defending agency MBS fundamentals |
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | 0.0% | AGNC sees agency MBS opportunity despite Q3 rate volatility |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC: Attractive MBS spreads offset a difficult quarter |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- EWBCFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+1.5% EPS+2.2% move
- COFFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+21.6% EPS+0.9% move
- HALFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+2.7% EPS+1.8% move
- RTXFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+27.0% EPS+0.6% move
- MMMFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+5.0% EPS+5.8% move
- GPCFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+1.5% EPS-5.1% move
Missed on EPS
- PACFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026-2.2% EPS+7.1% move
- AGNCZFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCLFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS0.0% move
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
Get the AGNC recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T10:10:42.737117+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-21T10:10:42.734228+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.