Aegon Ltd. · AEG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Aegon FY25 Q4: Operating results up 15%, capital generation ahead of target

Aegon's FY2025 Q4 call reinforces a US-centered growth story: operating results rose 15% YoY, operating capital generation of EUR 1.3 billion beat target, and management kept guidance intact while raising the dividend 14% and repurchasing shares. The bull case rests on World Financial Group agent expansion, CLO warehouse growth, and a planned US relocation under US GAAP. The stock nonetheless fell about 5.6% on report day and trades near 8.89, above the consensus price target of 7.50, so valuation and capital-return durability are the swing factors.

Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $13.25B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.27 Consensus $0.48
EPS surprise -43.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $22.31B Consensus $7.55B
Revenue surprise +195.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -5.9% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -5.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.6% Up to 20 sessions
AEGSPY benchmark

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What changed

Aegon reported FY2025 Q4 before the open on Feb 19, 2026. Operating results rose 15% YoY with operating capital generation of EUR 1.3 billion ahead of target; reported EPS of 0.27 came in about 44% below the ~0.48 estimate, while reported revenue of roughly EUR 22.3 billion ran well above the ~EUR 7.5 billion expectation (differing revenue scopes). Management raised the dividend 14%, kept guidance maintained, and began a EUR 400 million 2026 buyback. Shares fell about 5.6% in a down tape, with the post-report drift also roughly -5.6%.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management targets roughly 5% annual growth in operating result through 2026-27 and launched a EUR 400 million share-buyback program for 2026, on top of a 14% dividend increase.

Key takeaways

  • Operating results grew 15% YoY, with operating capital generation of EUR 1.3 billion ahead of target
  • Dividend raised 14% and buybacks continued with a new EUR 400 million program for 2026
  • US strategic assets, especially World Financial Group, drove growth with productivity gains and agent expansion
  • CLO warehouse capacity expanded to support higher-margin third-party asset-management business
  • UK platform under strategic review and legal settlements disclosed at roughly $230 million

Management priorities

  • Complete relocation to the United States and early/full US GAAP implementation
  • Grow WFG licensed agents to roughly 110,000 by 2027
  • Continue expanding CLO warehouse capacity in the US and Europe
  • Maintain strong capital-return program across dividends and buybacks
  • Finalize the strategic review and potential sale of the UK platform

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AEG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 6 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '23 actual $-0.10, None Q4 '23 actual $-0.10, None Q2 '24 actual $-0.16, None Q2 '25 estimate $0.30 Q2 '25 actual $0.43, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.48 Q4 '25 actual $0.27, miss Q2 '26 estimate $0.35 Q2 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.19 Q2 '27 estimate $0.36 Q4 '27 estimate $-0.25 Q2 '28 estimate $0.05

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold18 ratings
Bullish527.8%
Neutral950.0%
Bearish422.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$8.89Current
$7.5Low
$7.5Average
$7.5High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight OverweightDowngradeMay 15, 2026
UBS Neutral BuyDowngradeDec 3, 2025
Exane BNP Paribas Outperform NeutralUpgradeMay 7, 2025
Credit Suisse Outperform NeutralUpgradeNov 24, 2021
Societe Generale Hold SellUpgradeApr 20, 2021
Show 13 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $8.89. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
CFRAJeff Lye$7.5$6.82 -15.6%May 16, 2024

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Aegon Ltd. functions as a leading financial services provider, offering a comprehensive suite of insurance, retirement planning, and asset management solutions across its operational regions in the Americas, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The company's diverse product range includes life, accident, and health insurance, alongside property and casualty coverage. It also facilitates wealth growth and retirement security through savings vehicles, pensions, annuities, mutual funds, individual retirement accounts, voluntary employee benefits, and stable value programs. Beyond these, Aegon deals in various financial instruments such as debt and mortgage-backed securities, derivatives, reinsurance assets, and short-term investments, while also delivering services like credit risk management, disability assistance, and innovative digital banking platforms. Established in 1983 as Aegon N.V., the firm's main offices are located in The Hague, Netherlands.

Historical context

All AEG earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-26T01:11:07.798694+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-26T01:11:07.795798+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.