Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish822.2%
Neutral2363.9%
Bearish513.9%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. · ADP · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2025
ADP Reaffirms FY2026 Outlook as AI and Payroll Expansion Advance
ADP's FY2026 growth case remains supported by steady HCM demand, AI-enabled products, embedded payroll and global expansion. The evidence is constructive but not risk-free: pays-per-control growth was flat to 0%, some newer initiatives are early-stage, and management reaffirmed rather than increased guidance.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$103.00B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.49
Consensus $2.44
EPS surprise
+2.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.18B
Consensus $5.14B
Revenue surprise
+0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-6.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-6.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.6%
Up to 20 sessions
ADPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ADP FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ADP fall 6.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in ADP's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for ADP after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, ADP reported Q1 FY2026 progress in AI rollout, embedded payroll and the Pequity acquisition while reaffirming the full-year outlook. The current analysis also flags flat pays-per-control growth, PEO cost pressure and stablecoin-related regulatory considerations.
Guidance delta
Maintained: FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed at 5–6% revenue growth and 8–10% adjusted EPS growth, with modest margin expansion.
Key takeaways
- Q1 FY2026 revenue and adjusted EPS grew 7% year over year, with record Employer Services sales volume.
- Management highlighted expanding AI initiatives, including ADP Assist and a roadmap from simple to autonomous agents.
- Embedded payroll, the Fiserv partnership, global expansion and the Pequity acquisition broaden the growth agenda, but several contributions remain early-stage.
Management priorities
- Roll out AI agents and expand ADP Assist and generative AI tools for sales.
- Scale embedded payroll, add CashFlow Central to RUN and continue global expansion.
- Integrate WorkForce Software and use Pequity to extend compensation-management capabilities.
Follow ADP with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$260.26Current
$214Low
$261.62Average
$315High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Underperform | Hold | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jun 5, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 3, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 16, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 21, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jul 14, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2020 |
| MoffettNathanson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 11, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2018 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 13, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 6, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 31, 2017 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2017 |
| Compass Point | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 17, 2015 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2014 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Aug 2, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $260.26. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $272.41 | +19.1% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $286 | $273.37 | +9.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $273.37 | +15.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $276.08 | -13.5% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $294 | $243.24 | +13.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $246.22 | +13.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $246.22 | +3.7% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Jason Kupferberg | $248 | $241.37 | -4.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $245.6 | -0.1% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $213 | -7.8% | May 10, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $209.14 | -7.8% | May 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $215.06 | +3.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $215.06 | -27.0% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $244 | $204.24 | -6.2% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $201.25 | -17.8% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $270 | $231.36 | +3.7% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Daniel Jester | $281 | $249.06 | +8.0% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $280 | $250.69 | +7.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $274 | $250.69 | +5.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $250.69 | +0.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $306 | $258.17 | +17.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Daniel Jester | $288 | $260.14 | +10.7% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Samad Samana | $230 | $264.96 | -11.6% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $290 | $261.16 | +11.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $261.22 | -5.9% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $283.98 | +10.7% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $288.69 | +11.4% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $310.94 | +21.0% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $315 | $306.82 | +21.0% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Samad Samana | $305 | $300.57 | +17.2% | Jan 29, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $315 | $290.24 | +21.0% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $281 | $285.16 | +8.0% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $267 | $262.62 | +2.6% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $267 | $252.98 | +2.6% | Sep 5, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $218.18 | -1.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $218.18 | -11.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $250 | $218.18 | -3.9% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $238 | $212.46 | -8.6% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $220 | $233.04 | -15.5% | Nov 16, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Tien Tsin Huang | $224 | $211.82 | -13.9% | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Kevin Mcveigh | $215 | $213.56 | -17.4% | Aug 16, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ADP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAutomatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is a global provider of cloud-based solutions designed for human capital management (HCM). The company organizes its operations into two primary segments: Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). Through its Employer Services division, ADP delivers strategic, cloud-powered platforms and comprehensive human resources (HR) outsourcing.…
Historical context
All ADP earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the ADP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T21:40:41.774522+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T21:40:41.771646+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.