Adobe Inc. · ADBE · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2024

Adobe Q3 FY24: AI Adoption Supports Growth, ARR Outlook Bears Watching

Adobe's Q3 results support the view that resilient demand and expanding AI functionality can sustain growth, but the evidence is mixed: strong revenue, ARR, usage, and subscription-upgrade metrics are offset by a lower sequential Q4 net-new ARR outlook and unresolved AI monetization and competition risks.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $94.66B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.65 Consensus $4.53
EPS surprise +2.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $5.41B Consensus $5.37B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.5% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -9.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.7% Up to 20 sessions
ADBESPY benchmark

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Why did ADBE fall 8.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in ADBE's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ADBE after FY2024 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Adobe moved from a raised full-year guidance posture to maintained Q4 guidance. Q3 also added evidence of continued AI adoption, including more than 12 billion Firefly-powered generations, while management highlighted new Firefly Video, GenStudio, Content Hub, and Express initiatives.

Guidance delta

Q4 guidance was maintained, with revenue targeted at $5.50-$5.55 billion; this is less positive than the prior quarter's full-year guidance raise, while the Q4 net-new ARR outlook is lower sequentially.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 revenue reached a record $5.41 billion, up 11% year over year, with double-digit growth across all three cloud segments.
  • Digital Media net-new ARR reached $504 million, while Document Cloud ARR grew 24% year over year in constant currency.
  • Firefly, Generative Fill, and AI Assistant supported usage and subscription upgrades, but Q4 net-new ARR guidance declined sequentially.
  • Adobe is expanding Firefly, GenStudio, Content Hub, and Express while preparing further product announcements at Adobe MAX.

Management priorities

  • Expand AI-powered features across Creative, Document, and Experience clouds.
  • Launch and broaden Firefly Video, Firefly Services, GenStudio, Content Hub, and Express offerings.
  • Grow enterprise adoption through Teams, Enterprise, and Education products and improve content-supply-chain efficiency.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ADBE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $4.39 Q2 '24 actual $4.48, beat Q3 '24 estimate $4.53 Q3 '24 actual $4.65, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.97 Q2 '25 actual $5.06, beat Q3 '25 estimate $5.18 Q3 '25 actual $5.31, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.40 Q4 '25 actual $5.50, beat Q1 '26 estimate $5.87 Q1 '26 actual $6.06, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5.82 Q2 '26 actual $5.96, beat Q3 '26 estimate $6.08 Q3 '26 actual $6.13, beat Q4 '26 estimate $6.31 Q1 '27 estimate $6.78 Q2 '27 estimate $6.80
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold63 ratings
Bullish3047.6%
Neutral2742.9%
Bearish69.5%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$238.14Previous close
$190Low
$400.7Average
$730High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 11, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 11, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 11, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 11, 2026
Show 58 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $238.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$225$242.27 -5.5%Oct 12, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$255$246.62 +7.1%Sep 11, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$270$245.82 +13.4%Sep 11, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$250$248.93 +5.0%Sep 11, 2026
Robert W. BairdRob Oliver$250$248.83 +5.0%Sep 11, 2026
See 182 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Adobe Inc. stands as a prominent global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into three primary business divisions: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment empowers individuals, teams, and enterprises to generate, disseminate, and amplify various forms of content through its array of products and services, including the cloud-native Document Cloud platform. Central to this segment is Creative Cloud, its subscription-based flagship, granting access to a comprehensive suite of creative tools. This division caters to a diverse range of users, from professional content creators and marketers to educators, communicators, and general consumers.…

Historical context

All ADBE earnings
+1.4%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026-6.8%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q2 2026-0.3%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2025

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ACN Accenture plc FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.5% +15.8% Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks
JBL Jabil Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.1% -10.0% Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks
MU Micron Technology, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.4% +0.0% Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T11:10:43.819246+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T11:10:43.816337+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.