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Earnings surprise calculator
Compare reported EPS and revenue with the consensus estimate. Pick a company to load its figures, or enter your own. The arithmetic, the edge cases and the sources stay in view.
Result
Pick a company and quarter, or enter actual and estimated EPS. The result updates as you type.
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How the earnings surprise is calculated
Worked examples are hypothetical
The difference is the reported figure minus the estimate. Dividing by the absolute value of the estimate keeps the direction intuitive when a loss was expected, so a smaller loss than forecast reads as a positive surprise. Data providers may use other conventions. A zero estimate has no percentage; use the absolute difference.
| Scenario | Actual EPS | Estimated EPS | Difference | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above the estimate | 1.20 | 1.00 | +0.20 | +20% |
| Smaller loss than expected | −0.20 | −0.50 | +0.30 | +60% |
| Below the estimate | 0.90 | 1.00 | −0.10 | −10% |
| Zero estimate | 0.05 | 0.00 | +0.05 | Not defined |
Check what is being compared
Use the consensus available before the release, not a later revised estimate. Match diluted or basic EPS and GAAP or adjusted figures, and convert revenue to the same scale before entering a pair. Until you confirm a comparable basis, the calculator shows arithmetic without calling the result above or below the estimate.
What a surprise does not tell you
A surprise percentage does not explain a share price move. Guidance, margins and the tone of the call often matter more, and a near-zero estimate can turn a small difference into a very large percentage. Always read the absolute difference alongside the percentage.
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate an earnings surprise percentage?
Subtract the estimate from the reported figure, divide by the absolute value of the estimate and multiply by 100. Reported EPS of 1.20 against a 1.00 estimate is a 20% surprise.
Why use the absolute value of the estimate?
With a loss estimate, dividing by a negative number flips the sign. Using the absolute value keeps a better-than-expected result positive: a loss of −0.20 against an expected −0.50 is +60%. Some data providers use other conventions.
Is a positive earnings surprise always good news?
No. A small estimate can magnify percentages, adjusted figures can differ from GAAP, and guidance often moves the stock more than the quarter itself. Read the release and the call before drawing conclusions.
Which estimate should I use?
Use the consensus available before the release, not a later revised figure, and match diluted or basic shares and GAAP or adjusted definitions.
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Sources
Methodology
Calculations run in your browser with fixed-point decimal arithmetic to eight decimal places. A percentage is left undefined when its denominator is zero, and growth percentages need a positive baseline.
Figures you type stay in this browser tab. They are not saved, and they are not sent anywhere unless you take a question to FN2.
For research and education only. Not investment advice.