Free research worksheet

Earnings surprise calculator

Measure the difference between actual results and the estimates you enter. Keep the accounting basis and the absolute change in view.

No signup for calculations or CSV export. You enter the figures; this page does not fetch live estimates.

2. Inspect the calculation

Enter figures and calculate, or load a clearly labeled example.

3. Review a source-checking question

Edit the question before opening it in FN2. Review in FN2 saves it as a draft in this browser tab; continue signup in the same tab. Copy it manually to use another tab or device. You decide when to send.

Research question

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Method and worked examples

The formula

Difference = actual − estimate. FN2 uses surprise (%) = 100 × (actual − estimate) ÷ |estimate|. This absolute-denominator convention keeps the direction intuitive for a loss estimate; data providers may use different conventions. A zero estimate has no percentage result.

A worked example

Hypothetical EPS of 1.20 against a 1.00 estimate gives a 0.20 difference and 20%. A loss of −0.20 against an expected loss of −0.50 gives +0.30 and +60%, but it is still a loss. Small estimates can magnify percentages; always inspect the absolute difference.

Check what is being compared

Use the consensus available before the release, not a later revised estimate. Match diluted versus basic EPS and GAAP versus adjusted figures. Revenue must use the same scale: convert billions and millions before entering a pair. Until you confirm a comparable basis, this tool shows arithmetic without calling the result a beat or miss.

Take the next research step

A surprise percentage does not explain a share-price move. Review guidance, the prior expectations and the issuer release. Export your calculation or use the editable question below to ask FN2 to verify the sources.