Yum! Brands, Inc. · YUM · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Yum! Brands: Digital scale and unit growth lead the 2025 outlook

The current evidence supports a constructive operating thesis: KFC and Taco Bell growth, digital scale, international expansion, and franchisee economics remain central supports. The thesis is not settled because Pizza Hut's review, KFC development sustainability, and execution against 2026 targets remain material uncertainties.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $38.12B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.73 Consensus $1.76
EPS surprise -1.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.51B Consensus $2.45B
Revenue surprise +2.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +0.5% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +1.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -0.6% Up to 20 sessions
YUMSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about YUM FY2025 Q4

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Why did YUM rise 0.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in YUM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for YUM after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Since the prior quarter, management emphasized a broader raise-the-bar strategy, reported digital sales above $11 billion with Byte operating across about 38,000 restaurants, and highlighted KFC's 30,000th international restaurant. Pizza Hut's review and Taco Bell's acquisition remain important strategic threads.

Guidance delta

Maintained. Management expressed confidence in achieving or exceeding its 2026 operating profit growth targets.

Key takeaways

  • KFC and Taco Bell were the main operating growth engines, with record international KFC openings and strong Taco Bell momentum.
  • Digital sales exceeded $11 billion and the digital mix approached 60%; Byte now supports about 38,000 restaurants.
  • Pizza Hut remains under strategic review, while management prioritizes international expansion, loyalty, and franchisee economics.

Management priorities

  • Execute the raise-the-bar strategy around consumer focus, restaurant-level economics, and Byte expansion.
  • Advance Taco Bell's 2030 goals and expand KFC in under-penetrated international markets.
  • Roll out Byte smart-ops and digital-ordering initiatives, broaden loyalty, and progress Pizza Hut strategic options.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
YUM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1.20 Q1 '24 actual $1.15, miss Q2 '24 estimate $1.33 Q2 '24 actual $1.35, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.42 Q3 '24 actual $1.37, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1.46 Q2 '25 actual $1.44, miss Q3 '25 estimate $1.49 Q3 '25 actual $1.58, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.76 Q4 '25 actual $1.73, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.38 Q1 '26 actual $1.50, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.57 Q2 '26 actual $1.62, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.55 Q4 '26 estimate $1.97 Q1 '27 estimate $1.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2039.2%
Neutral2854.9%
Bearish35.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$137.73Current
$120Low
$164.97Average
$190High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Hold BuyDowngradeSep 24, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 16, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeSep 10, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 4, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 31, 2026
Show 46 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $137.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$165$140.77 +19.8%Sep 16, 2026
Seaport GlobalAnalyst unavailable$162$140.77 +17.6%Sep 16, 2026
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$175$145.09 +27.1%Sep 10, 2026
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$180$143.7 +30.7%Aug 17, 2026
RBC CapitalLogan Reich$170$153.92 +23.4%Jul 31, 2026
See 60 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a leading global quick-service restaurant enterprise that focuses on the creation, management, and franchising of its restaurant concepts internationally. Its business is organized into four main divisions: KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and The Habit Burger Grill. The company operates establishments under these well-known brands, offering diverse food categories such as chicken, pizza, Mexican-style dishes, and made-to-order chargrilled burgers and sandwiches, among other food products. As of December 31, 2021, YUM! Brands boasted a significant worldwide presence, comprising 26,934 KFC outlets, 18,381 Pizza Hut locations, 7,791 Taco Bell restaurants, and 318 The Habit Burger Grill units, spread across roughly 157 countries and territories. The company, which maintains its headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, was established in 1997. It was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc., before officially adopting the name YUM! Brands, Inc. in May 2002.

Historical context

All YUM earnings
+3.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+2.2%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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AZO AutoZone, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.6% +3.3% AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan
LEN-B Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — — Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures
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TCOM Trip.com Group Limited FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.3% +3.0% Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment
CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.7% -14.2% Casey's Q1: Prepared Food Drives Growth as Fuel Margins Stay Volatile

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T00:01:01.403092+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T00:01:01.400296+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.