Block, Inc. · XYZ · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Block pairs raised 2026 guidance with a major AI-led restructuring

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: Block reported strong fourth-quarter execution, raised 2026 guidance, and identified Cash App, Square, lending, and AI-enabled productivity as growth levers. The main counterweight is execution risk from the workforce reduction and expanding credit exposure.

Reported After market closeNYSETechnology $43.65B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.65 Consensus $0.65
EPS surprise -0.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $6.25B Consensus $6.28B
Revenue surprise -0.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +16.8% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +17.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -12.1% Up to 20 sessions
XYZSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the emphasis shifted from broad ecosystem expansion to a smaller AI-native organization, a substantial workforce reduction, higher 2026 guidance, and new Cash App, lending, BNPL, hardware, and AI initiatives.

Guidance delta

Management raised 2026 guidance to 18% gross profit growth, $3.2B adjusted operating income, and $3.66 EPS.

Key takeaways

  • Management said 2026 guidance was raised after the quarter, including 18% gross profit growth, $3.2B adjusted operating income, and $3.66 EPS.
  • The company is reducing its workforce from more than 10,000 employees to fewer than 6,000 to pursue a smaller, faster, AI-native organization.
  • Cash App network and primary banking actives showed momentum, while Cash App Green was described as generating 10 times the gross profit per active.
  • Square GPV and new volume added growth accelerated, alongside new hardware launches.
  • Management positioned AI-enabled productivity and faster product development as central to the operating plan.

Management priorities

  • Scale Cash App Green and deepen banking-product attach rates
  • Expand MoneyBot and ManagerBot
  • Grow Borrow in additional states and integrate it with Cash App
  • Launch Pay-in-Four for peer-to-peer use and expand Afterpay pre-purchase
  • Continue Square hardware rollout and AI infrastructure investment

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
XYZ EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 5 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '25 estimate $0.63 Q2 '25 actual $0.62, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.64 Q3 '25 actual $0.54, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.65 Q4 '25 actual $0.65, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.68 Q1 '26 actual $0.85, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.87 Q2 '26 actual $1.02, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.03 Q4 '26 estimate $1.18 Q1 '27 estimate $1.12

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy39 ratings
Bullish3076.9%
Neutral820.5%
Bearish12.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$74.05Current
$51Low
$116.76Average
$340High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 25, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
StoneX Buy HoldUpgradeSep 10, 2026
Macquarie Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 10, 2026
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Canaccord Genuity Buy BuyMaintainAug 13, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 11, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 7, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 6, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainAug 6, 2026
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainAug 6, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 6, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainAug 6, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 6, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 24, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 22, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 16, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 2, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 29, 2026
Rothschild & Co Neutral SellUpgradeMar 18, 2026
HSBC Buy HoldUpgradeMar 3, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 27, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainNov 21, 2025
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainNov 20, 2025
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainNov 20, 2025
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainNov 7, 2025
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainOct 21, 2025
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 8, 2025
Compass Point Sell BuyDowngradeAug 8, 2025
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2025
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 21, 2025
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJun 9, 2025
Wells Fargo Equal Weight OverweightDowngradeMay 2, 2025
Seaport Global Neutral BuyDowngradeMay 2, 2025
Benchmark Hold BuyDowngradeMay 2, 2025
Citizens Capital Markets Market Perform Market PerformMaintainFeb 21, 2025
Exane BNP Paribas Neutral OutperformDowngradeNov 20, 2024
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $74.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Coker PalmerMark Palmer$105$79.4 +41.8%Sep 10, 2026
ScotiabankLance Jessurun$82$77.88 +10.7%Sep 2, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$115$81.38 +55.3%Aug 25, 2026
Canaccord GenuityJoseph Vafi$100$82.6 +35.0%Aug 14, 2026
Argus ResearchStephen Biggar$103$79.72 +39.1%Aug 7, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$105$79.21 +41.8%Aug 6, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$105$79.58 +41.8%Aug 6, 2026
OppenheimerRayna Kumar$97$80.62 +31.0%Aug 6, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$108$84.2 +45.8%Aug 6, 2026
UBSTimothy Chiodo$98$84.2 +32.3%Aug 6, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$100$84.2 +35.0%Aug 6, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$90$81.24 +21.5%Aug 3, 2026
Truist FinancialMatthew Coad$93$76.49 +25.6%Jul 24, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$105$77.46 +41.8%Jul 23, 2026
BMO CapitalAndrew Bauch$85$78.65 +14.8%Jul 22, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldRamsey El-Assal$95$80.38 +28.3%Jul 22, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$32$75.9 -56.8%Jun 30, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$100$77.95 +35.0%Jun 29, 2026
Morgan StanleyJames Faucette$98$74.65 +32.3%May 29, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$82$71.63 +10.7%May 27, 2026
Canaccord GenuityJoseph Vafi$85$70.63 +14.8%May 19, 2026
MacquariePaul Golding$75$72.15 +1.3%May 12, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$91$74.42 +22.9%May 8, 2026
Truist FinancialMatthew Coad$81$70.2 +9.4%Apr 24, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$74$71.77 -0.1%Apr 21, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldRamsey El-Assal$88$75.09 +18.8%Apr 21, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldRamsey El-Assal$70$49.84 -5.5%Feb 17, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$87$65.91 +17.5%Jan 26, 2026
Truist FinancialMatthew Coad$72$64.01 -2.8%Jan 20, 2026
BNP ParibasAnalyst unavailable$83$70 +12.1%Jan 7, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$72$60.9 -2.8%Nov 21, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$100$64.5 +35.0%Nov 20, 2025
OppenheimerRayna Kumar$85$63.01 +14.8%Nov 7, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$74$79.57 -0.1%Oct 24, 2025
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$94$77.73 +26.9%Oct 22, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$91$77.73 +22.9%Oct 21, 2025
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$95$76.5 +28.3%Oct 21, 2025
BNP ParibasAnalyst unavailable$86$76.23 +16.1%Sep 2, 2025
Compass PointDominick Gabriele$65$74.23 -12.2%Aug 8, 2025
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$80$75.29 +8.0%Aug 5, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$73$75.29 -1.4%Aug 5, 2025
MonnessAnalyst unavailable$95$76.12 +28.3%Aug 4, 2025
Deutsche BankNate Svensson$82$71.18 +10.7%Jul 17, 2025
Truist FinancialMatthew Coad$61$63.51 -17.6%Jun 3, 2025
Evercore ISIAdam Frisch$75$63.51 +1.3%Jun 3, 2025
Raymond JamesJohn Davis$79$61.76 +6.7%Jun 2, 2025
Wolfe ResearchDarrin Peller$75$58.33 +1.3%May 19, 2025
Argus ResearchStephen Biggar$59$46.64 -20.3%May 5, 2025
BarclaysRamsey El-Assal$57$46.64 -23.0%May 5, 2025
Piper SandlerArvind Ramnani$51$46.53 -31.1%May 2, 2025
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$100$60 +35.0%Mar 8, 2025
Raymond JamesJohn Davis$115$91.4 +55.3%Jan 3, 2025
OppenheimerRayna Kumar$115$94.04 +55.3%Dec 19, 2024
Morgan StanleyJames Faucette$65$87.3 -12.2%Dec 18, 2024
MonnessGus Gala$115$94.04 +55.3%Dec 13, 2024
BTIGLance Jessurun$110$98.18 +48.5%Dec 5, 2024
BMO CapitalRufus Hone$100$92.26 +35.0%Nov 25, 2024
BMO CapitalRufus Hone$94$72.3 +26.9%Nov 8, 2024
Williams TradingTrevor Williams$90$74.66 +21.5%Oct 21, 2024
Wolfe ResearchDarrin Peller$85$69.7 +14.8%Oct 14, 2024
New StreetSoomit Datta$70$61.24 -5.5%Sep 9, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesJason Kupferberg$82$65.87 +10.7%Aug 16, 2024
RBC CapitalDaniel Perlin$88$60.01 +18.8%Aug 2, 2024
BMO CapitalRufus Hone$93$58.76 +25.6%Aug 2, 2024
Williams TradingTrevor Williams$100$60.18 +35.0%Jul 26, 2024
Deutsche BankBryan Keane$98$66.49 +32.3%Jul 12, 2024
Goldman SachsWill Nance$80$64.61 +8.0%Jun 24, 2024
BarclaysRamsey El-Assal$100$64.46 +35.0%Jun 24, 2024
Robert W. BairdDavid Koning$98$72.06 +32.3%Apr 19, 2024
Industrial Alliance SecuritiesLance Jessurun$90$78.51 +21.5%Apr 11, 2024
Mizuho SecuritiesDan Dolev$106$79.98 +43.1%Apr 10, 2024
Coker PalmerMark Palmer$99$79.65 +33.7%Apr 4, 2024
Morgan StanleyJames Faucette$60$79.65 -19.0%Apr 4, 2024
Wolfe ResearchDarrin Peller$100$84.58 +35.0%Apr 1, 2024
KeyBancJosh Beck$95$83.05 +28.3%Mar 27, 2024
UBSRayna Kumar$95$80.86 +28.3%Mar 18, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsDaniel Perlin$88$79.2 +18.8%Feb 23, 2024
Wells FargoAndrew Bauch$95$78.92 +28.3%Feb 23, 2024
Seaport GlobalJeff Cantwell$95$67.96 +28.3%Feb 23, 2024
WedbushMoshe Katri$90$69.92 +21.5%Jan 30, 2024
BTIGLance Jessurun$85$68.22 +14.8%Jan 30, 2024
Truist FinancialAndrew Jeffrey$70$49.44 -5.5%Nov 3, 2023
Mizuho SecuritiesDan Dolev$85$64.65 +14.8%Aug 4, 2023
SusquehannaJames Friedman$100$59.01 +35.0%May 5, 2023
KBWSteven Kwok$90$60 +21.5%Mar 24, 2023
Loop Capital MarketsJosh Beck$100$76.99 +35.0%Feb 24, 2023
Wells FargoJeff Cantwell$96$69.06 +29.6%Jan 9, 2023
MacquariePaul Golding$100$62.67 +35.0%Nov 7, 2022
Canaccord GenuityJoseph Vafi$150$62.52 +102.6%Nov 4, 2022
JefferiesTrevor Williams$70$60.11 -5.5%Nov 4, 2022
JefferiesTrevor Williams$70$54.53 -5.5%Oct 19, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesDan Dolev$57$59.45 -23.0%Sep 22, 2022
Evercore ISIDavid Togut$55$69.58 -25.7%Sep 14, 2022
Wells FargoJeff Cantwell$120$72.76 +62.1%Jul 27, 2022
MacquarieWei Sim$64$66.8 -13.6%Jul 19, 2022
Credit SuisseTimothy Chiodo$170$63.23 +129.6%Jun 15, 2022
NeedhamMayank Tandon$135$83.23 +82.3%May 23, 2022
BMO CapitalJames Fotheringham$126$84.39 +70.2%May 11, 2022
UBSRayna Kumar$167$83.86 +125.5%May 10, 2022
Goldman SachsMichael Ng$152$95.55 +105.3%May 6, 2022
OppenheimerDominick Gabriele$150$98.86 +102.6%May 4, 2022
SusquehannaJames Friedman$160$99.93 +116.1%Apr 28, 2022
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$180$102.67 +143.1%Apr 25, 2022
Wells FargoJeff Cantwell$165$123.22 +122.8%Apr 10, 2022
KeyBancJosh Beck$180$128.77 +143.1%Apr 6, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesDan Dolev$215$133.62 +190.3%Apr 3, 2022
Morgan StanleyJames Faucette$146$135.4 +97.2%Mar 23, 2022
Robert W. BairdDavid Koning$128$108.87 +72.9%Mar 10, 2022
BarclaysRamsey El Assal$205$100.62 +176.8%Mar 8, 2022
UBSRayna Kumar$178$126.06 +140.4%Mar 1, 2022
D.A. DavidsonChris Brendler$175$127.5 +136.3%Feb 28, 2022
BMO CapitalJames Fotheringham$159$127.5 +114.7%Feb 27, 2022
Cowen & Co.Georgios Mihalos$188$119.82 +153.9%Feb 25, 2022
Canaccord GenuityJoseph Vafi$210$119.82 +183.6%Feb 25, 2022
JefferiesTrevor Williams$155$119.82 +109.3%Feb 25, 2022
BTIGMark Palmer$230$119.82 +210.6%Feb 25, 2022
NeedhamMayank Tandon$175$119.82 +136.3%Feb 25, 2022
BernsteinHarshita Rawat$200$119.82 +170.1%Feb 25, 2022
CitigroupPeter Christiansen$220$119.82 +197.1%Feb 25, 2022
Rosenblatt SecuritiesSean Horgan$210$119.82 +183.6%Feb 25, 2022
MoffettNathansonLisa Elis$200$119.82 +170.1%Feb 25, 2022
Deutsche BankBryan Keane$180$119.82 +143.1%Feb 25, 2022
Credit SuisseTimothy Chiodo$190$119.82 +156.6%Feb 25, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesJason Kupferberg$185$97.72 +149.8%Feb 18, 2022
Wolfe ResearchDarrin Peller$170$107.88 +129.6%Feb 11, 2022
WedbushMoshe Katri$140$107.88 +89.1%Feb 11, 2022
Evercore ISIDavid Togut$272$111 +267.3%Jan 26, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesDan Dolev$210$115.3 +183.6%Jan 25, 2022
Tigress FinancialIvan Feinseth$310$231.85 +318.6%Nov 17, 2021
Piper SandlerChristopher Donat$250$237.38 +237.6%Nov 5, 2021
Atlantic EquitiesKunaal Malde$300$237.41 +305.1%Oct 12, 2021
KBWSteven Kwok$325$269.49 +338.9%Aug 3, 2021
Oddo BHFMartin Marandon-Carlhian$340$272.38 +359.1%Aug 2, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Block, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, develops innovative tools that empower merchants to process card payments, gain insights from robust reporting and analytics, and benefit from expedited next-day fund settlement. The company offers a diverse range of hardware solutions, including the Magstripe reader for traditional swipe-based transactions, and the Contactless and chip reader, which accommodates Europay, MasterCard, and Visa (EMV) chip cards alongside Near Field Communication (NFC) payments. For comprehensive point-of-sale functionality, Block provides the Square Stand, enabling an iPad to serve as a complete payment terminal, and the Square Register, an integrated system combining proprietary hardware, software, and payment processing capabilities. Additionally, the Square Terminal offers a modern alternative to conventional keypad devices, functioning as both a payment processor and receipt printer, accepting tap, dip, and swipe payment methods.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T22:10:59.024855+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T22:10:59.022068+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.