Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold54 ratings
Bullish2240.7%
Neutral2851.9%
Bearish47.4%
Exxon Mobil Corporation · XOM · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
ExxonMobil Q2: Record Production, Resilient Cash Flow, Geopolitical Risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view of ExxonMobil's earnings trajectory: record Permian and Guyana production, refinery strength, cost savings, and an accelerating Guyana cash-flow inflection are positives, while geopolitical, regulatory, and execution risks temper the outlook.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$656.48B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.52
Consensus $3.56
EPS surprise
-1.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$116.02B
Consensus $109.94B
Revenue surprise
+5.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.8%
Up to 20 sessions
XOMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about XOM FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did XOM fall 1.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in XOM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for XOM after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management's tone remained confident and guidance sentiment remained maintained. The current analysis emphasizes record Permian and Guyana volumes, Guyana's accelerating cash-flow inflection, record diesel production, $16.3 billion in cumulative structural cost savings, and AI-assisted exploration.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance posture; the analysis identifies no change to guidance.
Key takeaways
- ExxonMobil reported strong Q2 performance despite a 10% upstream impact from the Middle East conflict, according to the supplied analysis.
- Permian and Guyana production reached records, while Guyana's FPSOs were delivering around 900 thousand barrels per day.
- Record diesel production, structural cost savings, and an accelerating Guyana cash-flow inflection supported the integrated portfolio thesis.
Management priorities
- Start up the Errea Wittu FPSO by year-end and evaluate a ninth FPSO in Guyana.
- Continue Permian technology rollouts and advance LNG projects in Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and Golden Pass.
- Expand Proxxima polymer capacity and publish the annual global outlook report in September.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$158.3Current
$62.5Low
$133.65Average
$185High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 4, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Oct 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 22, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jun 7, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 7, 2022 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 3, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 7, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 8, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 14, 2019 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 19, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 8, 2018 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 15, 2017 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jun 5, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 29, 2016 |
| Nomura | Sell | Reduce | Maintain | Mar 18, 2016 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Feb 14, 2014 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 10, 2014 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2013 |
| Phoenix Partners Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 26, 2013 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 22, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2012 |
| VTB Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $158.3. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $164.17 | +16.9% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $167.97 | +11.8% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $160.09 | +11.8% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $154.83 | +6.1% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $155.46 | -0.2% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $182 | $155.46 | +15.0% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Royall | $158 | $154.45 | -0.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $140.94 | +7.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $149.85 | +10.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $182 | $154.92 | +15.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $182 | $144.39 | +15.0% | May 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $152.4 | +9.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $143.53 | +8.0% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Lucas Herrmann | $165 | $151.85 | +4.2% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $155.04 | +13.7% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $155.04 | +16.2% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $182 | $155.04 | +15.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $185 | $155.04 | +16.9% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $153 | $156.22 | -3.3% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $170.99 | +8.7% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $183 | $150.83 | +15.6% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $143.78 | -2.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $143.78 | -11.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sergey Pigarev | $123 | $143.92 | -22.3% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $138.36 | -8.4% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $138.36 | -21.0% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $139.14 | -5.2% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $141.63 | +8.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $134 | $135.57 | -15.4% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $140 | $132.78 | -11.6% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $118.49 | -10.3% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $122.65 | -13.5% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $119.54 | -16.6% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $119.54 | -0.2% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $119 | -6.5% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $137 | $118.23 | -13.5% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $114.31 | -2.1% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $110.73 | -8.4% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $113.84 | -19.1% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $113.39 | -10.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $126 | $114.2 | -20.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $123 | $112.35 | -22.3% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $127 | $108.37 | -19.8% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $127 | $103.27 | -19.8% | May 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $130 | $107.37 | -17.9% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $118.27 | -12.8% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $137 | $121.84 | -13.5% | Nov 14, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $124 | $120.66 | -21.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $145 | $123.27 | -8.4% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $129 | $124.83 | -18.5% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $130 | $124.83 | -17.9% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $137 | $119.93 | -13.5% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $117 | $115.82 | -26.1% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Peter Low | $120 | $117.36 | -24.2% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $118 | $111.15 | -25.5% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $146 | $117.64 | -7.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $154 | $114.05 | -2.7% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $124 | $113.97 | -21.7% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $152 | $116.75 | -4.0% | May 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $142 | $118.27 | -10.3% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| HSBC | Kim Fustier | $120 | $119.64 | -24.2% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $145 | $118.63 | -8.4% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $150 | $122.2 | -5.2% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $140 | $121.37 | -11.6% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $146 | $120.31 | -7.8% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $138 | $119.3 | -12.8% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| UBS | Jon Rigby | $132 | $102.39 | -16.6% | Feb 2, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $139 | $109.11 | -12.2% | Nov 2, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $140 | $107.6 | -11.6% | Oct 27, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $46 | $108.99 | -70.9% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $139 | $109.04 | -12.2% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $131 | $116.18 | -17.2% | Sep 25, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Biraj Borkhataria | $120 | $114.76 | -24.2% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $122 | $110.31 | -22.9% | May 2, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $125 | $115.3 | -21.0% | May 1, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $133 | $111.54 | -16.0% | Mar 8, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $112.21 | -28.6% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $115.72 | -21.0% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $116.01 | -30.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $109.25 | -22.9% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $109.11 | -18.5% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $104.7 | -19.8% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $110.5 | -17.2% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $109 | $102.06 | -31.1% | Oct 7, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $98.41 | -31.8% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $95.05 | -28.6% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| HSBC | Gordon Gray | $97.5 | $91.02 | -38.4% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $87.35 | -33.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $87.64 | -47.6% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $125 | $85.64 | -21.0% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $117 | $100.46 | -26.1% | Jun 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.84 | -27.4% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $120 | $98.84 | -24.2% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.09 | -32.4% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeanine Wai | $111 | $96.18 | -29.9% | May 31, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $104 | $84.46 | -34.3% | May 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $102 | $86.41 | -35.6% | May 3, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $84 | $84.1 | -46.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $86.78 | -34.9% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $87.96 | -36.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Giacomo Romeo | $81 | $83.65 | -48.8% | Apr 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $107 | $76.93 | -32.4% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | John Gerdes | $84 | $84.09 | -46.9% | Mar 4, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $75 | $81.04 | -52.6% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $87 | $81.04 | -45.0% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $86 | $81.04 | -45.7% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $91 | $80.53 | -42.5% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Alastair Syme | $80 | $80.53 | -49.5% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $110 | $79.17 | -30.5% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $90 | $75.8 | -43.1% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Jason Gabelman | $77 | $76.77 | -51.4% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $88 | $79.74 | -44.4% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $92 | $79.74 | -41.9% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $95 | $79.74 | -40.0% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $93 | $79.94 | -41.3% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| UBS | Jon Rigby | $77 | $74.45 | -51.4% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Lucas Herrmann | $60 | $60.08 | -62.1% | Oct 11, 2021 |
| DZ BANK AG | Werner Eisenmann | $62.5 | $55.95 | -60.5% | Aug 3, 2021 |
Track every rating change on XOM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationExxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.
Historical context
All XOM earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Get the XOM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-12T22:17:40.365030+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-05T01:23:14.965082+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T06:00:49.979052+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T06:00:49.976305+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.