Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold54 ratings
Bullish2240.7%
Neutral2851.9%
Bearish47.4%
Exxon Mobil Corporation · XOM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Exxon Mobil Beats Estimates as Golden Pass LNG Starts, Refining Captures Disrupted Supply
Exxon Mobil delivered a strong first quarter despite unprecedented Middle East conflict disrupting global energy supplies. EPS of $1.16 beat the $0.98 consensus by 18%, and revenue of $85.1B exceeded the $81.1B estimate by 5%. The company leveraged its integrated portfolio to offset disruptions: record Guyana production, the first LNG cargo from Golden Pass Train 1 in March, and a 200,000 barrel-per-day increase in Gulf Coast refining throughput from February to March. However, the market reaction was negative -- the stock showed a -1.3% abnormal move on the report session and drifted an additional -2.2% afterward, suggesting investors focused on the damaged Qatar LNG trains (3-5 year repair timeline representing ~3% of global production) and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop rather than the earnings beat. Management's bullish score rose to 88 from 85 in the prior quarter, and capex…
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$641.55B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationExxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.16
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+17.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$85.14B
Consensus $81.13B
Revenue surprise
+4.9%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$165.23Previous close
$62.5Low
$133.65Average
$185High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 4, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Oct 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 22, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jun 7, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 7, 2022 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 3, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 7, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 8, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 14, 2019 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 19, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 8, 2018 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 15, 2017 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jun 5, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 29, 2016 |
| Nomura | Sell | Reduce | Maintain | Mar 18, 2016 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Feb 14, 2014 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 10, 2014 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2013 |
| Phoenix Partners Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 26, 2013 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 22, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2012 |
| VTB Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $165.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $164.17 | +12.0% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $167.97 | +7.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $160.09 | +7.1% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $154.83 | +1.7% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $155.46 | -4.4% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $182 | $155.46 | +10.1% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Royall | $158 | $154.45 | -4.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $140.94 | +2.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $149.85 | +5.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $182 | $154.92 | +10.1% | May 26, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $182 | $144.39 | +10.1% | May 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $152.4 | +5.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $143.53 | +3.5% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Lucas Herrmann | $165 | $151.85 | -0.1% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $155.04 | +8.9% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $155.04 | +11.4% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $182 | $155.04 | +10.1% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $185 | $155.04 | +12.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $153 | $156.22 | -7.4% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $170.99 | +4.1% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $183 | $150.83 | +10.8% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $143.78 | -6.2% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $143.78 | -15.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sergey Pigarev | $123 | $143.92 | -25.6% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $138.36 | -12.2% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $138.36 | -24.3% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $139.14 | -9.2% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $141.63 | +3.5% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $134 | $135.57 | -18.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $140 | $132.78 | -15.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $118.49 | -14.1% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $122.65 | -17.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $119.54 | -20.1% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $119.54 | -4.4% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $119 | -10.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $137 | $118.23 | -17.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $114.31 | -6.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $110.73 | -12.2% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $113.84 | -22.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $113.39 | -14.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $126 | $114.2 | -23.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $123 | $112.35 | -25.6% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $127 | $108.37 | -23.1% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $127 | $103.27 | -23.1% | May 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $130 | $107.37 | -21.3% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $118.27 | -16.5% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $137 | $121.84 | -17.1% | Nov 14, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $124 | $120.66 | -25.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $145 | $123.27 | -12.2% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $129 | $124.83 | -21.9% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $130 | $124.83 | -21.3% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $137 | $119.93 | -17.1% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $117 | $115.82 | -29.2% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Peter Low | $120 | $117.36 | -27.4% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $118 | $111.15 | -28.6% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $146 | $117.64 | -11.6% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $154 | $114.05 | -6.8% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $124 | $113.97 | -25.0% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $152 | $116.75 | -8.0% | May 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $142 | $118.27 | -14.1% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| HSBC | Kim Fustier | $120 | $119.64 | -27.4% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $145 | $118.63 | -12.2% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $150 | $122.2 | -9.2% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $140 | $121.37 | -15.3% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $146 | $120.31 | -11.6% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $138 | $119.3 | -16.5% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| UBS | Jon Rigby | $132 | $102.39 | -20.1% | Feb 2, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $139 | $109.11 | -15.9% | Nov 2, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $140 | $107.6 | -15.3% | Oct 27, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $46 | $108.99 | -72.2% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $139 | $109.04 | -15.9% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $131 | $116.18 | -20.7% | Sep 25, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Biraj Borkhataria | $120 | $114.76 | -27.4% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $122 | $110.31 | -26.2% | May 2, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $125 | $115.3 | -24.3% | May 1, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $133 | $111.54 | -19.5% | Mar 8, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $112.21 | -31.6% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $115.72 | -24.3% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $116.01 | -33.4% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $109.25 | -26.2% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $109.11 | -21.9% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $104.7 | -23.1% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $110.5 | -20.7% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $109 | $102.06 | -34.0% | Oct 7, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $98.41 | -34.6% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $95.05 | -31.6% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| HSBC | Gordon Gray | $97.5 | $91.02 | -41.0% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $87.35 | -35.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $87.64 | -49.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $125 | $85.64 | -24.3% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $117 | $100.46 | -29.2% | Jun 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.84 | -30.4% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $120 | $98.84 | -27.4% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.09 | -35.2% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeanine Wai | $111 | $96.18 | -32.8% | May 31, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $104 | $84.46 | -37.1% | May 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $102 | $86.41 | -38.3% | May 3, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $84 | $84.1 | -49.2% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $86.78 | -37.7% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $87.96 | -39.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Giacomo Romeo | $81 | $83.65 | -51.0% | Apr 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $107 | $76.93 | -35.2% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | John Gerdes | $84 | $84.09 | -49.2% | Mar 4, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $75 | $81.04 | -54.6% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $87 | $81.04 | -47.3% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $86 | $81.04 | -48.0% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $91 | $80.53 | -44.9% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Alastair Syme | $80 | $80.53 | -51.6% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $110 | $79.17 | -33.4% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $90 | $75.8 | -45.5% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Jason Gabelman | $77 | $76.77 | -53.4% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $88 | $79.74 | -46.7% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $92 | $79.74 | -44.3% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $95 | $79.74 | -42.5% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $93 | $79.94 | -43.7% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| UBS | Jon Rigby | $77 | $74.45 | -53.4% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Lucas Herrmann | $60 | $60.08 | -63.7% | Oct 11, 2021 |
| DZ BANK AG | Werner Eisenmann | $62.5 | $55.95 | -62.2% | Aug 3, 2021 |
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What changed
Compared to the prior quarter, Golden Pass LNG Train 1 achieved first LNG in March, adding approximately 5% to U.S. LNG export capacity, with Train 2 expected mechanically complete by year-end and Train 3 by Q2 2027. The Beaumont refinery expansion (completed 2023) fully recovered its initial investment ahead of schedule. Two Qatar LNG trains operated with JV partner Cutter Energy were damaged in the Middle East conflict, with a stated 3-5 year repair timeline representing about 3% of Exxon's global production. Record Guyana production was achieved with Oahu, Whiptail, and Hammerhead projects under construction. A synthetic graphite pilot plant opened in Kentucky, and CO2 capture expanded with a second startup. Exxon committed $100M over 10 years to STEM education in Guyana. The enterprise-wide ERP transformation reached a workforce enablement milestone across 50+ countries.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained, but capex outlook shifted from stable to increasing. Permian production guidance of 1.8 million boe/d for 2026 was reiterated. LNG FID decisions for Papua New Guinea and Mozambique are still expected later this year. Golden Pass Train 2 is targeted for mechanical completion by year-end 2026 and Train 3 by Q2 2027. The company plans to bring online CO2 capture capacity of an additional 4 million tons per year through 2026-2027. Management flagged that Middle East disruption has not fully impacted market prices yet, with SPR releases and inventory drawdowns masking the supply gap, and anticipates a 1-2 month lag after the Strait of Hormuz reopens before normal flows resume, followed by inventory replenishment demand.
Key takeaways
- Q1 results beat on both lines -- EPS of $1.16 vs $0.98 estimate and revenue of $85.1B vs $81.1B estimate -- as the integrated portfolio offset Middle East disruptions.
- Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in March, adding ~5% to U.S. LNG export capacity; Trains 2 and 3 targeted for year-end 2026 and Q2 2027.
- Record Guyana production and a 200,000 bpd increase in Gulf Coast refining throughput from February to March demonstrated portfolio resilience during supply disruption.
- Damaged Qatar LNG trains face a 3-5 year repair timeline (~3% of global production), creating a prolonged LNG supply gap.
- Capex outlook shifted from stable to increasing, reflecting continued investment in growth projects across LNG, Permian, and low-carbon solutions.
Management priorities
- Grow Permian production to 1.8 million boe/d in 2026, with eventual target of 2.5 million boe/d
- Advance Golden Pass LNG Trains 2 and 3 (mechanical completion by year-end 2026 and Q2 2027)
- Reach FID on Papua New Guinea and Mozambique LNG projects later in 2026
- Develop Guyana projects -- Oahu (first oil late 2026), Whiptail, and Hammerhead
- Expand CO2 capture capacity by 4 million tons per year through 2026-2027
- Commercialize synthetic graphite from the Kentucky pilot plant
Related earnings events
EnergySources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T06:42:57.942721+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T06:42:57.939995+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.