Exxon Mobil Corporation · XOM · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Exxon emphasizes advantaged production and technology execution

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: advantaged upstream assets and technology programs can underpin growth, while project timing, commodity prices, and commercialization risks remain material.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $673.60B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.71 Consensus $1.70
EPS surprise +0.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $82.31B Consensus $80.63B
Revenue surprise +2.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +0.6% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +0.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +9.1% Up to 20 sessions
XOMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, the emphasis shifted from lower-than-expected capital spending and emerging acquisitions toward stable capital spending, scaling lightweight proppant, advancing LNG decisions, expanding carbon capture, and the stated achievement of 2030 GHG-intensity targets.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained. The current analysis describes capital spending as stable, versus decreasing in the prior analysis, while emphasizing continued execution on advantaged assets and technology programs.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted Permian and Guyana assets, LNG projects, and technology deployment as the main growth pillars.
  • The current analysis adds a plan to scale lightweight proppant to 50% of new wells by the end of 2026, alongside continued Proxima and graphite-anode expansion.
  • Exxon said it had already achieved its 2030 GHG-intensity reduction targets and emphasized shareholder returns and disciplined capital allocation.
  • Execution remains important across Guyana, LNG project decisions, chemicals, and carbon-capture commercialization.

Management priorities

  • Scale lightweight proppant across new wells.
  • Advance Golden Pass LNG, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea projects.
  • Expand Proxima systems, battery-anode graphite production, and carbon-capture services.
  • Continue cost-saving transformation, ERP and AI-driven data-platform rollout, and disciplined capital allocation.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
XOM REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $85B Q4 '23 actual $82B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $82B Q1 '24 actual $80B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $93B Q2 '24 actual $90B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $94B Q3 '24 actual $91B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $81B Q2 '25 actual $79B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $86B Q3 '25 actual $83B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $81B Q4 '25 actual $82B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $81B Q1 '26 actual $85B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $110B Q2 '26 actual $116B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $109B Q4 '26 estimate $96B Q1 '27 estimate $99B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold54 ratings
Bullish2240.7%
Neutral2851.9%
Bearish47.4%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$161.35Current
$62.5Low
$133.73Average
$185High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 3, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 19, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 17, 2026
Freedom Broker Hold SellUpgradeAug 4, 2026
Show 49 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $161.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$172$162.05 +6.6%Sep 25, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$185$164.17 +14.7%Sep 3, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$177$167.97 +9.7%Aug 19, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$177$160.09 +9.7%Aug 17, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$168$154.83 +4.1%Aug 7, 2026
See 114 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.

Historical context

All XOM earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T00:16:16.562242+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T00:16:16.559008+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.