Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1661.5%
Neutral830.8%
Bearish27.7%
Xcel Energy Inc. · XEL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Xcel Energy Q1 2026: EPS Edges Estimates as Data Center Pipeline and Record Capex Drive Growth
Xcel Energy's Q1 2026 results portray a regulated utility leveraging data center demand to drive an unprecedented infrastructure build-out. Ongoing EPS of $0.91 narrowly topped estimates, while revenue of $4.02 billion missed by roughly 4.5% as warm winter weather dampened sales. The core investment narrative rests on a record $14 billion 2026 capital plan, anchored by a Google data-center agreement supplying 1.9 GW of wind and solar plus a 100-hour iron-air battery, with a pipeline targeting 6 GW of large-load capacity by 2027 and over 20 GW in backlog. Constructive rate-case settlements across multiple states and equity issuance running ahead of schedule support the financing picture, but the magnitude of capex raises legitimate questions about funding structure and the timing of earned returns. The stock rose approximately 5.2% on the report before drifting lower over subsequent…
Reported Before market openNASDAQUtilities
$50.15B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationXcel Energy Inc., through its various operating units, functions as a multifaceted energy company involved in the complete cycle of electricity – from its production and procurement to its transmission, delivery, and eventual sale. Its business is organized into three main divisions: Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and a final "All Other" segment. The company employs a diverse range of energy sources for electricity generation, including traditional options like coal, nuclear power, natural gas, and oil, as well as a strong focus on renewables such as hydroelectric, solar, biomass, wood/refuse, and wind. In addition to its electric services, Xcel Energy is active in the natural gas sector, managing the acquisition, pipeline transport, distribution, and retail sales of natural gas.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.91
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.02B
Consensus $4.21B
Revenue surprise
-4.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$78.75Current
$58Low
$84.1Average
$101High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 25, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Mar 11, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 8, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2022 |
| CFRA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 30, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2018 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 26, 2016 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 2, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 29, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 17, 2014 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $78.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $79.83 | +16.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $90 | $79.17 | +14.3% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $80.37 | +28.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $81.75 | +24.4% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $80.86 | +13.0% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $78.81 | +15.6% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $79.93 | +10.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $77.92 | +16.8% | May 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $80.6 | +10.5% | May 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $96 | $82.26 | +21.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $79.38 | +16.8% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $80.32 | +14.3% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $95 | $80.32 | +20.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $91 | $81.72 | +15.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $91 | $81.08 | +15.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Gary Hovis | $86 | $81 | +9.2% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $81.25 | +15.6% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $89 | $78.98 | +13.0% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $75.57 | +14.3% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $75.97 | +19.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Stephen D'Ambrisi | $95 | $74.44 | +20.6% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $76.2 | +4.1% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $86 | $73.72 | +9.2% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $81 | $73.73 | +2.9% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $74.77 | +6.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $84 | $79.66 | +6.7% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $81.59 | +7.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $86 | $81.18 | +9.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $87 | $80.96 | +10.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $80.88 | +9.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| BTIG | Alex Kania | $96 | $80.64 | +21.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $81.6 | +16.8% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $87 | $80.98 | +10.5% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $80.85 | +7.9% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $84 | $81.26 | +6.7% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $81 | +16.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $79.28 | +2.9% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $82 | $77.25 | +4.1% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $77.25 | +6.7% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $77.25 | +5.4% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $80 | $73.04 | +1.6% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $78 | $69.21 | -1.0% | May 22, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Neil Kalton | $78 | $69 | -1.0% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $79 | $71.55 | +0.3% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $73 | $71.39 | -7.3% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $67 | $64.07 | -14.9% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $70 | $64.17 | -11.1% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $70 | $64.06 | -11.1% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Marie Ferguson | $68 | $60.12 | -13.7% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $64 | $52.43 | -18.7% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $57 | $54.48 | -27.6% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $65 | $54.79 | -17.5% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $65 | $53.76 | -17.5% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $54 | $52.91 | -31.4% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Steve Fleishman | $58 | $52.91 | -26.3% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jeremy Tonet | $70 | $61.43 | -11.1% | Dec 4, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $67.14 | -20.0% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $79 | $74.78 | +0.3% | May 16, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $74.88 | +0.3% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Nicholas Campanella | $80 | $74.88 | +1.6% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $75.36 | -4.8% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Insoo Kim | $76 | $62.14 | -3.5% | Oct 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on XEL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.2%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.2%
Up to 20 sessions
XELSPY benchmark
Follow XEL with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to the prior quarter, Xcel Energy escalated its capital investment plan from $12 billion in 2025 to a record $14 billion for 2026, and identified $7 billion in incremental investment opportunities within a $10 billion-plus pipeline. The Google data-center agreement — featuring 1.9 GW of renewable generation paired with Form Energy's 100-hour iron-air battery — emerged as a concrete template for large-load growth, building on the more general NextEra and GE Vernova partnership announcements from Q4 2025. Two non-recurring items appeared: a $37 million (4 cents per share) charge from the Prairie Island outage disallowance and a $22 million (3 cents per share) gain from Marshall Wildfire insurance proceeds. Rate-case progress advanced, with constructive settlements in Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Equity financing moved ahead of schedule, covering roughly 50% of the five-year equity need.
Guidance delta
Xcel Energy reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $4.04 to $4.16, consistent with the prior quarter's reaffirmation. Management characterized the outlook as confident, with guidance sentiment maintained. No upward or downward revision was announced.
Key takeaways
- Ongoing earnings of $0.91 per share edged the $0.907 consensus estimate by 0.3%, while revenue of $4.02 billion fell short of the $4.21 billion estimate by 4.5%.
- Q1 capital investment exceeded $3 billion, part of a record $14 billion 2026 capex plan — the largest in company history.
- The Google ESA supplies 1.9 GW of wind and solar plus a 100-hour iron-air battery, with an estimated $1 to $1.5 billion in customer savings over the contract term.
- Data center load target of 6 GW by end of 2027, with an additional 20-plus GW backlog identified.
- Equity financing is ahead of schedule, covering approximately 50% of the five-year equity need while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
- Two non-recurring items: a $37 million (4 cents per share) Prairie Island outage disallowance charge and a $22 million (3 cents per share) Marshall Wildfire insurance recovery.
Management priorities
- Execute the $14 billion 2026 capital investment plan, the most extensive in company history.
- Secure 6 GW of data-center load by year-end 2027, with 20-plus GW in additional backlog.
- File large-load tariffs in Texas, New Mexico, and Wisconsin to enable further data-center development.
- Advance the 765 kV Crawfish Draw-to-Phantom transmission line and other regional transmission projects.
- Deepen partnerships with Google, NextEra Energy, GE Vernova, and tier-one EPC firms for renewable and gas projects.
Related earnings events
UtilitiesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T23:01:35.933222+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T23:01:35.930555+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.