Walmart Inc. · WMT · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Walmart: E-commerce and higher-margin businesses remain central to growth

The supplied evidence supports a constructive but conditional view of Walmart's growth trajectory: resilient demand and expanding digital and higher-margin businesses are positives, while tariffs, regulation, costs, and macro sensitivity remain material tests.

Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Defensive $856.21B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.74 Consensus $0.73
EPS surprise +1.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $190.66B Consensus $190.49B
Revenue surprise +0.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -1.4% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -1.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.0% Up to 20 sessions
WMTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior analysis, management's tone remained confident but guidance sentiment shifted from raised to maintained. The current analysis places more emphasis on scaling Sparky, marketplace services, fast delivery, and productivity while retaining the prior focus on automation, partnerships, and capital discipline.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook, with the supplied analysis describing continued sales and operating-income growth targets and stable capital spending.

Key takeaways

  • Management described e-commerce as the primary growth engine.
  • Advertising, membership, and marketplace services were identified as important higher-margin contributors.
  • Management highlighted adoption of the Sparky shopping assistant and continued automation investment.
  • Inventory management and fast delivery were presented as operational strengths.
  • The main counterweights are tariff, regulatory, cost, and macroeconomic risks.

Management priorities

  • Scale Sparky and other agentic-commerce tools.
  • Deepen AI partnerships and capabilities.
  • Continue automation, store remodels, and new-store investment.
  • Expand marketplace services and fulfillment offerings.
  • Maintain disciplined capital allocation.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
WMT REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $150B Q3 '24 actual $161B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $171B Q4 '24 actual $173B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $160B Q1 '25 actual $162B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $169B Q2 '25 actual $169B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $176B Q2 '26 actual $177B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $177B Q3 '26 actual $179B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $190B Q4 '26 actual $191B, match Q1 '27 estimate $175B Q1 '27 actual $178B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $187B Q2 '27 actual $188B, beat Q3 '27 estimate $187B Q4 '27 estimate $200B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy65 ratings
Bullish4670.8%
Neutral1624.6%
Bearish34.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$107.01Current
$44.29Low
$107.35Average
$155High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 10, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 10, 2026
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainAug 31, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 21, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 21, 2026
Show 60 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $107.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesCorey Tarlowe$120$103.7 +12.1%Aug 21, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$113$102.79 +5.6%Aug 21, 2026
Raymond JamesBobby Griffin$130$102.71 +21.5%Aug 21, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$125$102.64 +16.8%Aug 21, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$125$102.44 +16.8%Aug 21, 2026
See 223 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Walmart Inc., established in 1945 and based in Bentonville, Arkansas, operates as a global retail powerhouse, having officially adopted its current name in February 2018, formerly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. The company's diverse operations, encompassing retail, wholesale, and e-commerce, are managed across three primary divisions: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. Its extensive physical presence includes a variety of store formats such as supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, membership-only warehouse clubs (like Sam's Club), cash-and-carry outlets, and discount stores, primarily operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market banners. Digitally, the company engages customers through numerous e-commerce platforms, including walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, and PhonePe, as well as via dedicated mobile applications. Walmart offers an exceptionally broad range of products and services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T09:40:58.413852+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T09:40:58.411125+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.