Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold2 ratings
Bullish00.0%
Neutral2100.0%
Bearish00.0%
Woodside Energy Group Ltd · WDS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Woodside Q4 2025: record production drives EPS beat; Scarborough LNG first cargo set for Q4 2026
Woodside's FY2025 outcome shows record production and strong cash generation holding even as realized oil prices softened, with growth projects (Scarborough LNG on track for a Q4 2026 first cargo, Beaumont ammonia ramping) positioned to expand the cash-generation base. Management kept the dividend at the top of its 50-80% payout range and reinforced disciplined capital allocation with gearing inside its 10-20% target. The stock finished the event session roughly flat against a weaker market and has drifted about 24% higher since, with the current $22.04 price sitting just under the $23.21 consensus target - consistent with the market largely pricing the delivered beat and near-term Scarborough delivery.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$41.78B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.74
Consensus $0.70
EPS surprise
+5.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.39B
Consensus $6.37B
Revenue surprise
+0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.4%
Event window
SPY move
-1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+23.8%
Up to 20 sessions
WDSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about WDS FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did WDS fall 1.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in WDS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for WDS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Woodside beat consensus in its FY2025 Q4 print: adjusted EPS of $0.74 versus $0.70 expected (+5.9%) on revenue of $6.39B versus $6.37B expected (+0.4%). Total reported production hit a record 198.8M boe, exceeding guidance, and the company maintained its dividend payout at the top of the 50-80% range with a $1.12/share total dividend. Management guided Scarborough LNG toward first cargo in Q4 2026 and highlighted first ammonia production at Beaumont.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained. Woodside reiterated its dividend at the top of the 50-80% payout range ($1.12/share total) and flagged disciplined capital allocation, with total 2025 capex of $9.9B and gearing within its 10-20% target. The capex outlook is increasing as new projects ramp. FY2026 delivery remains execution-driven: Scarborough first LNG cargo targeted for Q4 2026, the Pluto turnaround, and further Louisiana LNG HoldCo sell-downs.
Key takeaways
- Record production and strong cash generation despite lower realized oil prices.
- Scarborough LNG on track for first cargo in Q4 2026; Louisiana LNG 57% funded after sell-downs.
- Beaumont New Ammonia ramp-up underway with both conventional and lower-carbon ammonia contracts.
- Dividend payout ratio at top of 50-80% range; $1.12/share total dividend.
- Disciplined capital allocation; total 2025 capex $9.9B, gearing within 10-20% target.
Management priorities
- First LNG cargo from Scarborough expected Q4 2026.
- Full ramp-up of Beaumont New Ammonia, with Phase 2 planning contingent on lower-carbon demand.
- Trion project targeted for first oil in 2028 (currently 50% complete).
- Potential Phase 2 development at Sangomar leveraging FPSO infrastructure.
- Evaluate Louisiana LNG Trains 4-15 once HoldCo sell-downs for Trains 1-3 are secured.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$22.04Current
$23.21Low
$25.61Average
$28High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 20, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $22.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Cameron Needham | $23.21 | $23.07 | +5.3% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Neil Beveridge | $28 | $17.7 | +27.0% | Aug 20, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationWoodside Energy Group Ltd is an international energy company involved in the full spectrum of hydrocarbon operations. This includes the exploration, evaluation, development, extraction, marketing, and distribution of resources across various global regions, such as Oceania, Asia, Canada, Africa, and beyond. The company's output comprises a range of vital energy commodities: liquefied natural gas (LNG), pipeline natural gas, condensate, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and crude oil. Woodside maintains stakes in numerous key projects, including Greater Browse, Greater Sunrise, Greater Pluto, Greater Exmouth, North West Shelf, Wheatstone, Julimar-Brunello, specific ventures in Canada and Senegal, Greater Scarborough, and Myanmar. Founded in 1954, the company operated as Woodside Petroleum Ltd until its rebranding to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Its corporate base is situated in Perth, Australia.
Historical context
All WDS earningsLatest beats and misses
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Get the WDS recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-26T01:31:23.927618+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-26T01:31:23.924541+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.