Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy31 ratings
Bullish1858.1%
Neutral1238.7%
Bearish13.2%
Ventas, Inc. · VTR · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Ventas Raises FY2026 FFO Guidance on Double-Digit SHOP NOI Growth
Ventas's Q1 results reinforce the senior housing growth thesis: SHOP same-store NOI grew over 15% year-over-year, management raised FY2026 FFO guidance to $3.86, and the 2026 investment target was lifted to $3 billion backed by record liquidity of $5.5 billion. The market responded positively — shares gained 3.4% on 1.9x normal volume despite an EPS miss — suggesting investors prioritized the guidance raise and operational momentum over the bottom-line shortfall. Key debates center on the Revel portfolio's mid-70% occupancy upside, the composition of a 5.8% expense increase, and whether intensifying competition will compress cap rates and challenge deal economics.
Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate
$47.71B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationAs an S&P 500 company, Ventas operates strategically at the nexus of the dynamic healthcare and real estate industries. We stand as one of the world's foremost Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), utilizing financial capital to unlock property value. Our partnerships extend to leading care providers, developers, research and medical institutions, innovators, and healthcare organizations, all of whom benefit from the significant demographic trend of an aging population. For over two decades, Ventas has pursued a steadfast and effective strategy: maintaining a high-quality, diverse portfolio of assets and varied capital streams to skillfully navigate market fluctuations. A dedicated and experienced team collaborates with industry-leading partners to generate consistent, increasing cash flows and superior returns on a strong balance sheet, ultimately enriching Ventas's shareholders. As of September 30, 2020, Ventas either owned outright or managed through unconsolidated joint ventures approximately 1,200 properties.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.11
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
-10.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.66B
Consensus $1.59B
Revenue surprise
+4.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$97.72Current
$51Low
$80.42Average
$110High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 17, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 22, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2022 |
| SMBC Nikko | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 30, 2019 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 30, 2019 |
| Capital One Financial | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 28, 2019 |
| Capital One | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 28, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 10, 2018 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 15, 2017 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 21, 2013 |
| Morgan Keegan | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 21, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $97.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $97.62 | +6.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $99 | $92.21 | +1.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $88 | $81.18 | -9.9% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $83.89 | -3.8% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Omotayo Okusanya | $100 | $83.46 | +2.3% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vikram Malhotra | $98 | $88 | +0.3% | May 22, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $95 | $88.28 | -2.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $88.14 | +12.6% | May 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $88.53 | +2.3% | May 12, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $85.34 | -2.8% | May 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Juan Sanabria | $100 | $88.04 | +2.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $88.02 | +0.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $88.02 | -4.8% | May 4, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $87.25 | -2.8% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $85.25 | -7.9% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $83.38 | -9.9% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $82.79 | -6.9% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Julien Blouin | $100 | $82.75 | +2.3% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Goldsmith | $85 | $83.12 | -13.0% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $75.08 | -3.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $75.4 | -4.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $78.7 | -4.8% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Austin Wurschmidt | $85 | $80 | -13.0% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $79.76 | -9.9% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $73.76 | -13.0% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $71.5 | -18.1% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Richard Anderson | $77 | $69.99 | -21.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| UBS | Michael Goldsmith | $73 | $67.18 | -25.3% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $67.54 | -24.3% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $67.79 | -20.2% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $67.87 | -23.3% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $69.18 | -26.3% | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | James Kammert | $70 | $64.91 | -28.4% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Richard Anderson | $71 | $64.16 | -27.3% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | James Kammert | $64 | $60.28 | -34.5% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Michael Carroll | $63 | $59.1 | -35.5% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $59 | $58.56 | -39.6% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | James Kammert | $56 | $52.64 | -42.7% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ronald Kamdem | $52.5 | $52.69 | -46.3% | Jul 11, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $52 | $49.59 | -46.8% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Michael Carroll | $52 | $47.14 | -46.8% | May 7, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $51 | $47.05 | -47.8% | May 7, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $50 | $42.77 | -48.8% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $44.29 | -42.7% | Nov 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $48.26 | -44.7% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $47.55 | -43.7% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $52.43 | -38.6% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $50.74 | -46.8% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $50.25 | -33.5% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $51.43 | -37.6% | Jul 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $56.74 | -39.6% | Jun 1, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $56.09 | -35.5% | May 20, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Derek Johnston | $64 | $51.56 | -34.5% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Omotayo Okusanya | $53 | $52.03 | -45.8% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Dave Rodgers | $60 | $50.93 | -38.6% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Joseph | $63 | $46.96 | -35.5% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Richard Anderson | $55 | $49.51 | -43.7% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Capital One Financial | Daniel Bernstein | $65 | $55.75 | -33.5% | Jun 30, 2021 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $63 | $55.75 | -35.5% | Jun 30, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Jordan Sadler | $65 | $56.06 | -33.5% | Jun 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steve Manaker | $57 | $56.19 | -41.7% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Barclays | Steven Valiquette | $67 | $56.27 | -31.4% | Jun 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on VTR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+3.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.5%
Up to 20 sessions
VTRSPY benchmark
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What changed
Versus the prior quarter, Ventas upgraded guidance sentiment from maintained to raised and increased its 2026 investment volume target from $2.5 billion to $3 billion — the highest in three years. SHOP same-store NOI growth exceeded 15%, an acceleration from the double-digit growth reported in Q4 2025. The company closed an additional $1.7 billion of senior housing acquisitions year-to-date, including the $540 million Revel portfolio, bringing total acquisitions since 2024 to over $5.7 billion. Record liquidity reached $5.5 billion at quarter end, up from the $7 billion of capital raised across all of 2025.
Guidance delta
Management raised FY2026 FFO guidance to $3.86 per share, up from the prior outlook of high-single-digit FFO growth. The 2026 investment volume target was increased from $2.5 billion to $3 billion — the highest in three years. The company targets 300 basis points of occupancy growth for FY2026.
Key takeaways
- SHOP same-store NOI grew over 15% year-over-year, supporting a raise in FY2026 FFO guidance to $3.86 per share.
- 2026 investment volume guidance increased to $3 billion, the highest in three years, with $1.7 billion already closed year-to-date.
- Record liquidity of $5.5 billion and net debt/EBITDA of 5x provide ample capacity for continued capital deployment.
- The Ventas OI platform is driving occupancy gains, dynamic pricing improvements, and operating leverage across operator partners.
- Senior housing construction starts remain historically low, limiting near-term supply and supporting the occupancy growth trajectory.
Management priorities
- Achieve 300 basis points of occupancy growth for FY2026 across the SHOP portfolio.
- Deploy $3 billion of senior housing investments in 2026, with 90% of acquisitions relationship-driven or off-market.
- Expand the Ventas OI platform including dynamic pricing and deeper operator engagement.
- Execute the zero lost-revenue-days strategy across high-occupancy communities.
- Pursue selective dispositions of non-core assets and evaluate potential new fund structures.
Related earnings events
Real EstateSources
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- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T23:41:08.166824+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.