Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish2291.7%
Neutral28.3%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Vistra Corp. · VST · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Vistra Raises 2026 Outlook as Record Q3 EBITDA and Cogentrix Expand Capacity
The quarter strengthens the case that Vistra can turn rising power demand and acquired generation into growth: management reported record Q3 adjusted EBITDA, raised 2026 guidance and introduced 2027 guidance. The thesis still depends on market conditions, regulatory outcomes and execution.
What drove VST's +10.5% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?
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Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$37.89B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.98
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $6.03B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+10.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
VSTSPY benchmark
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What drove VST's +10.5% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in VST's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for VST after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with Q2, when management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, it now raised that outlook and introduced 2027 guidance. The company also reported that the Cogentrix acquisition had closed and highlighted new power agreements with Meta and AWS.
Guidance delta
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was lifted to $7.1–$7.5 billion; 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance was introduced at $7.7–$8.5 billion.
Key takeaways
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA reached a record $2.378 billion, up more than 50% year over year.
- Cogentrix adds approximately 5,500 MW and expands Vistra’s generation fleet to approximately 50,000 MW.
- Management raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and introduced a 2027 range.
- Management cited data-center and industrial load growth, PPAs and acquisitions as growth drivers.
Management priorities
- Integrate Cogentrix and capture expected synergies.
- Advance Permian Peaker development and coal-to-gas conversions beginning in 2028.
- Pursue additional nuclear and gas PPAs, including agreements with Meta and AWS.
- Continue share repurchases and the dividend policy.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$124.8Current
$116Low
$203.46Average
$293High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2026 | |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 7, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2018 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 8, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $124.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $144.05 | +45.0% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $144.09 | +51.4% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $141.73 | +55.4% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Lake Street | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $141.73 | +55.4% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $156.14 | +52.2% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $154.98 | +41.0% | Oct 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $150.32 | +41.0% | Oct 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $144.85 | +68.3% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $139.75 | +61.9% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $181 | $138.37 | +45.0% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $169 | $136.21 | +35.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $141.38 | +104.3% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $147.25 | +65.1% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $212 | $140.59 | +69.9% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $227 | $150.7 | +81.9% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $159.23 | +138.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $210 | $164.26 | +68.3% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $187 | $158.61 | +49.8% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $153.93 | +84.3% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $148.51 | +69.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $190 | $144 | +52.2% | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $163.61 | +66.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $208 | $156.31 | +66.7% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $241 | $172.43 | +93.1% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $215 | $171.4 | +72.3% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $203 | $152.97 | +62.7% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $205 | $143.07 | +64.3% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $156.6 | +81.9% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $236 | $166.6 | +89.1% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $293 | $176.29 | +134.8% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $233 | $174.57 | +86.7% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $244 | $166.37 | +95.5% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $166.8 | +85.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $230 | $162.93 | +84.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $228 | $172.72 | +82.7% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $175.14 | +73.9% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $176.4 | +80.3% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $199.3 | +90.7% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $202.72 | +93.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $236 | $202.42 | +89.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $201.62 | +78.7% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $256 | $217.92 | +105.1% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $208.31 | +100.3% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $207 | $190.28 | +65.9% | Aug 21, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $229 | $208.64 | +83.5% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $241 | $202.12 | +93.1% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $192 | $152.06 | +53.8% | May 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $98.07 | +7.4% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $126.87 | -3.8% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $141 | $132.45 | +13.0% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $137 | $111.63 | +9.8% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $132 | $107.88 | +5.8% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $125 | $91.74 | +0.2% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $99 | $80.47 | -20.7% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $120 | $79.08 | -3.8% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $116 | $88.4 | -7.1% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $121 | $93.46 | -3.0% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $110 | $105.92 | -11.9% | May 28, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $109 | $95.24 | -12.7% | May 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $95 | $83.24 | -23.9% | May 7, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $24.09 | -75.2% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $28 | $24.3 | -77.6% | May 9, 2022 |
Track every rating change on VST the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationVistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.…
Historical context
All VST earningsUtilities peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEE Ameren Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.7% | +0.0% | Ameren lifts 2026 outlook as five-year investment plan expands |
| PPLC PPL Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -1.2% | PPL raises long-term EPS growth target as capital plan expands |
| PPL PPL Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -0.6% | PPL Raises Long-Term EPS Growth Target, Expands Data-Center Buildout |
| BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +3.8% | BIP reports 10% per-unit FFO growth as AI infrastructure expands |
| BIP-PA Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | Brookfield Infrastructure’s FFO growth meets rising AI execution demands |
| SREA Sempra | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +14.8% | -0.1% | Sempra sees Texas transmission growth offset California regulatory risk |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- AEEFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+5.7% EPS+0.0% move
- SUZFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+94.1% EPS+1.7% move
- DVNFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+6.8% EPS-1.6% move
- RGAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+21.8% EPS+0.1% move
- REGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+94.1% EPS-1.4% move
- EOGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+8.9% EPS+2.2% move
Missed on EPS
- REGCOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-32.6% EPS+2.0% move
- REGCPFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-32.6% EPS+0.6% move
- DKNGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-29.2% EPS-23.4% move
- WPMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-1.1% EPS+2.2% move
- CPTFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-27.2% EPS-3.1% move
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-06T20:11:24.136848+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T21:10:48.266504+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T21:10:48.263765+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.