Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy23 ratings
Bullish2191.3%
Neutral28.7%
Bearish00.0%
Vistra Corp. · VST · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
Vistra raises guidance as power demand and capital returns strengthen
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: raised guidance, reliable hedging, strong generation performance, and data-center-linked retail growth strengthen Vistra's earnings trajectory, while regulatory decisions, capacity-market outcomes, and leverage determine how durable that trajectory is.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$54.45B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$5.40
Consensus $1.20
EPS surprise
+350.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.29B
Consensus $5.01B
Revenue surprise
+25.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+7.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+17.9%
Up to 20 sessions
VSTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about VST FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did VST rise 7.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in VST's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for VST after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from maintained guidance to raised full-year 2024 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance. The quarter also added the Vistra Vision minority-interest purchase, approximately $400 million of Q3 repurchases, and a larger capital-return and capacity-expansion agenda.
Guidance delta
Raised: full-year 2024 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance were raised and narrowed.
Key takeaways
- Vistra reported Q3 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $1.444 billion and raised full-year 2024 EBITDA guidance to $5.0-$5.2 billion.
- Management highlighted strong nuclear and gas operating performance, retail growth tied to data-center demand, and a strong hedging position.
- Capital returns remained a central theme, including approximately $400 million of Q3 share repurchases and the Vistra Vision minority-interest purchase.
- The main offsets are uncertainty around the nuclear production tax credit, FERC ISA treatment, PJM capacity-market timing, and leverage after the acquisition.
Management priorities
- Complete the full acquisition of Vistra Vision.
- Deploy approximately $700 million in 2024-2025 for solar projects with Amazon and Microsoft.
- Add nuclear generation and solar/storage capacity through the Vision purchase.
- Develop peaker projects in ERCOT and PJM, including two TEF-qualified projects.
- Maintain a capital-return plan with more than $6 billion allocated through 2026.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$161.16Current
$116Low
$213.17Average
$298High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 7, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2018 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 8, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $161.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $144.85 | +30.3% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $139.75 | +25.3% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $181 | $138.37 | +12.3% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $169 | $136.21 | +4.9% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $141.38 | +58.2% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $147.25 | +27.8% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $212 | $140.59 | +31.5% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $227 | $150.7 | +40.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $159.23 | +84.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $210 | $164.26 | +30.3% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $187 | $158.61 | +16.0% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $153.93 | +42.7% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $148.51 | +31.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $190 | $144 | +17.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $163.61 | +29.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $208 | $156.31 | +29.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $241 | $172.43 | +49.5% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $215 | $171.4 | +33.4% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $203 | $152.97 | +26.0% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $205 | $143.07 | +27.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $156.6 | +40.8% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $236 | $166.6 | +46.4% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $293 | $176.29 | +81.8% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $233 | $174.57 | +44.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $244 | $166.37 | +51.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $166.8 | +44.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $230 | $162.93 | +42.7% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $228 | $172.72 | +41.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $175.14 | +34.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $176.4 | +39.6% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $199.3 | +47.7% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $202.72 | +50.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $236 | $202.42 | +46.4% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $201.62 | +38.4% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $256 | $217.92 | +58.8% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $208.31 | +55.1% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $207 | $190.28 | +28.4% | Aug 21, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $229 | $208.64 | +42.1% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $241 | $202.12 | +49.5% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $192 | $152.06 | +19.1% | May 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $98.07 | -16.9% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $126.87 | -25.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $141 | $132.45 | -12.5% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $137 | $111.63 | -15.0% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $132 | $107.88 | -18.1% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $125 | $91.74 | -22.4% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $99 | $80.47 | -38.6% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $120 | $79.08 | -25.5% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $116 | $88.4 | -28.0% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $121 | $93.46 | -24.9% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $110 | $105.92 | -31.7% | May 28, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $109 | $95.24 | -32.4% | May 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $95 | $83.24 | -41.1% | May 7, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $24.09 | -80.8% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $28 | $24.3 | -82.6% | May 9, 2022 |
Track every rating change on VST the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationVistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.…
Historical context
All VST earningsLatest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T11:30:42.984178+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T11:30:42.981482+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.