Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy36 ratings
Bullish2158.3%
Neutral1438.9%
Bearish12.8%
Valero Energy Corporation · VLO · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Valero Earnings Beat: $1.3B Net Income, Record Jet Yields, Port Arthur Fire Clouds Q2
Valero delivered a decisive Q1 2026 earnings beat, with EPS of $4.22 versus $3.16 estimated (33.5% surprise) and revenue of $32.4B versus $31.4B estimated (3.2% surprise). The quarter was driven by strong Gulf Coast refining margins, discounted heavy sour crude feedstock, and record jet fuel yields. However, a fire at the Port Arthur refinery introduces near-term throughput and capex uncertainty. The stock's market reaction was muted — an abnormal decline of 0.49% against a rising benchmark, with a subsequent 3.1% drift lower — suggesting investors are weighing operational disruptions against the strong results.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$88.75B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationValero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company organizes its business across three primary divisions: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its Refining segment generates a wide array of products, including various types of gasoline (conventional, premium, reformulated, and California Air Resources Board-compliant), diverse diesel fuels (low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and CARB diesel), jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalts, petrochemicals, and lubricants. This division also handles the sale of lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of the end of 2021, Valero managed 15 petroleum refineries, boasting a combined daily processing capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil. The Ethanol division comprises 12 plants, capable of producing around 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.22
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+33.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$32.38B
Consensus $31.38B
Revenue surprise
+3.2%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$298.88Previous close
$85Low
$186.94Average
$357High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 16, 2024 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 18, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 22, 2016 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 13, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 27, 2015 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 1, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Feb 4, 2014 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $298.88. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $357 | $314.8 | +19.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $290.62 | +13.8% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $312 | $267.76 | +4.4% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $260.44 | -6.7% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $255.6 | -14.7% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $280 | $259.84 | -6.3% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $241.45 | -3.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $232 | $244.8 | -22.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $233.83 | -25.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $226.28 | -32.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $263 | $239.64 | -12.0% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $215 | $181.52 | -28.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $179.31 | -39.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $181.28 | -26.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $183.28 | -39.8% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $178 | $184.52 | -40.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $197 | $191.32 | -34.1% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $217 | $183.86 | -27.4% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $192 | $171.94 | -35.8% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $183 | $173.15 | -38.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $201 | $173.13 | -32.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $173.13 | -34.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $181 | $157.04 | -39.4% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $162.01 | -35.1% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $163.42 | -43.5% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $175 | $164.7 | -41.4% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $190 | $157.57 | -36.4% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $161.83 | -40.8% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $154.28 | -45.8% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $164 | $147.06 | -45.1% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $127 | $113.87 | -57.5% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $151 | $113.87 | -49.5% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $126.85 | -51.8% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $159 | $133 | -46.8% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $149 | $127.15 | -50.1% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $160 | $132.32 | -46.5% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $150 | $135.52 | -49.8% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $141 | $139.36 | -52.8% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $165 | $139.36 | -44.8% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $165 | $144.03 | -44.8% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $123 | $138.69 | -58.8% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $177 | $150.05 | -40.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $175 | $150.05 | -41.4% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $173 | $146.64 | -42.1% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $156 | $146.64 | -47.8% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $171 | $149.94 | -42.8% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $169 | $149.97 | -43.5% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $187 | $154.62 | -37.4% | May 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $184 | $180.37 | -38.4% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $198 | $177.22 | -33.8% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $197 | $168.49 | -34.1% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $173 | $169.64 | -42.1% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $154 | $123.17 | -48.5% | Nov 22, 2023 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $142 | $128 | -52.5% | Aug 8, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $174 | $136.71 | -41.8% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $135.63 | -43.5% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $124.59 | -53.2% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $119.37 | -44.8% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $106.67 | -56.2% | Sep 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $114.08 | -50.5% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $122.11 | -49.8% | Aug 24, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $113.37 | -53.5% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $106.31 | -52.5% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $104.59 | -53.2% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $103.98 | -55.5% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $166 | $107.98 | -44.5% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $128.12 | -49.8% | May 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $123.3 | -54.8% | May 23, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $136 | $122.98 | -54.5% | May 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $120 | $111.48 | -59.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.48 | -59.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.14 | -59.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $105.14 | -57.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $105.14 | -58.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $101.79 | -59.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $125 | $103.05 | -58.2% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $108.07 | -59.2% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $121 | $110.35 | -59.5% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | TJ Schultz | $108 | $100.9 | -63.9% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $105 | $84.94 | -64.9% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $100 | $85.98 | -66.5% | Mar 5, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $95 | $80.24 | -68.2% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $94 | $83.26 | -68.5% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $85 | $72.62 | -71.6% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $93 | $79.93 | -68.9% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $97 | $80.72 | -67.5% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $90 | $66.81 | -69.9% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on VLO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.1%
Up to 20 sessions
VLOSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 marked a sharp reversal from the year-ago period, with net income of $1.3 billion compared to a $595 million loss in Q1 2025. Refining throughput averaged 2.9 million barrels per day. The renewable diesel and ethanol segments returned to operating income after prior-period losses. Valero issued $850 million in ten-year notes at a record-low spread of 102 bps over Treasuries, and announced an additional $100 million in depreciation from ceasing operations at the Benicia refinery. A fire at the Port Arthur refinery will require additional capital expenditure, though management expects throughput to normalize by early May.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance with a stable capex outlook. The prior quarter's $1.7 billion 2026 capex target and 6% dividend increase were reiterated. The SCC unit optimization project at St. Charles is expected to begin operations in 2026. The Port Arthur fire introduces incremental capex not previously in guidance, but management characterized repairs as near-term with throughput normalization expected by May.
Key takeaways
- EPS of $4.22 beat the $3.16 consensus by 33.5%; revenue of $32.4B beat by 3.2%
- Net income of $1.3B reversed a $595M year-ago loss, driven by strong refining margins and heavy sour crude discounts
- Record jet fuel yield, with jet comprising over 30% of distillate output
- Balance sheet strengthened with $5.7B cash and $850M in ten-year notes at a record-low 102 bps spread
- Port Arthur fire adds near-term capex and throughput risk, but repairs expected by May
Management priorities
- Disciplined capital allocation with share repurchases and 6% dividend growth
- St. Charles SCC unit optimization project online in 2026
- Expand heavy crude processing from Venezuela and Canada
- Mitigate VGO shortage through sourcing adjustments and potential investments
- Maintain $1.7B 2026 capex target while managing Port Arthur repair costs
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T05:41:47.649647+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T05:41:47.646784+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.