Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish2054.1%
Neutral1540.5%
Bearish25.4%
Valero Energy Corporation · VLO · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
Valero: Weak refining margins pressure Q3, while SAF project advances
Valero's near-term earnings remain exposed to refining-margin weakness, but resilient cash generation, shareholder returns and progress in low-carbon fuels provide support if demand and supply balances improve.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$122.88B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.14
Consensus $0.98
EPS surprise
+16.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$32.88B
Consensus $31.04B
Revenue surprise
+5.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.4%
Up to 20 sessions
VLOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about VLO FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did VLO fall 1.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in VLO's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for VLO after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis shifts from strong operating performance and a SAF project on schedule to sharply lower Q3 earnings caused by weaker refining margins and maintenance. The SAF project is now mechanically complete, ahead of schedule and under budget.
Guidance delta
Management guidance was maintained. The analysis highlights approximately $2 billion of 2024 capital spending, with about half directed to low-carbon fuel growth.
Key takeaways
- Q3 earnings declined sharply as weaker refining margins and maintenance reduced throughput.
- Operating cash flow supported an 84% payout ratio and $907 million returned to shareholders during the quarter.
- The Diamond Green Diesel SAF project reached mechanical completion ahead of schedule and under budget.
- Management pointed to tighter 2025 supply-demand balances, but California regulation and credit markets remain material risks.
Management priorities
- Start up and commercialize the Diamond Green Diesel SAF facility.
- Allocate roughly half of 2024 capital spending to low-carbon fuel growth and the remainder to sustaining refinery projects.
- Maintain dividends and share repurchases above the 40%-50% payout floor.
- Continue pursuing export opportunities for gasoline, diesel and renewable fuels.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$426.76Previous close
$85Low
$256.88Average
$530High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 27, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 16, 2024 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 18, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 22, 2016 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 13, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 27, 2015 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 1, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Feb 4, 2014 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $426.76. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $489 | $426.28 | +14.6% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $443 | $426.28 | +3.8% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $530 | $439.72 | +24.2% | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $485 | $456.46 | +13.6% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $394 | $443.96 | -7.7% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $434 | $424.1 | +1.7% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $467 | $414.32 | +9.4% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $441 | $419.33 | +3.3% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $457 | $377.14 | +7.1% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $401 | $393.27 | -6.0% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $387.6 | +5.4% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $411 | $398.34 | -3.7% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $370.72 | +5.4% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $435 | $366.09 | +1.9% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $389 | $358.92 | -8.8% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $307.58 | -29.7% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $312.9 | -18.0% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $355 | $308.12 | -16.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $356 | $311.71 | -16.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $323 | $311.71 | -24.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $357 | $314.8 | -16.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $290.62 | -20.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $312 | $267.76 | -26.9% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $260.44 | -34.6% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $255.6 | -40.2% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $280 | $259.84 | -34.4% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $241.45 | -32.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $232 | $244.8 | -45.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $233.83 | -48.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $226.28 | -52.4% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $263 | $239.64 | -38.4% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $215 | $181.52 | -49.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $179.31 | -57.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $181.28 | -48.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $183.28 | -57.8% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $178 | $184.52 | -58.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $197 | $191.32 | -53.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $217 | $183.86 | -49.2% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $192 | $171.94 | -55.0% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $183 | $173.15 | -57.1% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $201 | $173.13 | -52.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $173.13 | -54.3% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $181 | $157.04 | -57.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $162.01 | -54.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $163.42 | -60.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $175 | $164.7 | -59.0% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $190 | $157.57 | -55.5% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $161.83 | -58.5% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $154.28 | -62.0% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $164 | $147.06 | -61.6% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $127 | $113.87 | -70.2% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $151 | $113.87 | -64.6% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $126.85 | -66.3% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $159 | $133 | -62.7% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $149 | $127.15 | -65.1% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $160 | $132.32 | -62.5% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $150 | $135.52 | -64.9% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $141 | $139.36 | -67.0% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $165 | $139.36 | -61.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $165 | $144.03 | -61.3% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $123 | $138.69 | -71.2% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $177 | $150.05 | -58.5% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $175 | $150.05 | -59.0% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $173 | $146.64 | -59.5% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $156 | $146.64 | -63.4% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $171 | $149.94 | -59.9% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $169 | $149.97 | -60.4% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $187 | $154.62 | -56.2% | May 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $184 | $180.37 | -56.9% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $198 | $177.22 | -53.6% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $197 | $168.49 | -53.8% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $173 | $169.64 | -59.5% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $154 | $123.17 | -63.9% | Nov 22, 2023 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $142 | $128 | -66.7% | Aug 8, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $174 | $136.71 | -59.2% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $135.63 | -60.4% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $124.59 | -67.2% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $119.37 | -61.3% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $106.67 | -69.3% | Sep 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $114.08 | -65.3% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $122.11 | -64.9% | Aug 24, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $113.37 | -67.4% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $106.31 | -66.7% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $104.59 | -67.2% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $103.98 | -68.8% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $166 | $107.98 | -61.1% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $128.12 | -64.9% | May 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $123.3 | -68.4% | May 23, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $136 | $122.98 | -68.1% | May 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $120 | $111.48 | -71.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.48 | -71.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.14 | -71.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $105.14 | -70.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $105.14 | -70.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $101.79 | -71.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $125 | $103.05 | -70.7% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $108.07 | -71.4% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $121 | $110.35 | -71.6% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | TJ Schultz | $108 | $100.9 | -74.7% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $105 | $84.94 | -75.4% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $100 | $85.98 | -76.6% | Mar 5, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $95 | $80.24 | -77.7% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $94 | $83.26 | -78.0% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $85 | $72.62 | -80.1% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $93 | $79.93 | -78.2% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $97 | $80.72 | -77.3% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $90 | $66.81 | -78.9% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on VLO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationValero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company organizes its business across three primary divisions: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its Refining segment generates a wide array of products, including various types of gasoline (conventional, premium, reformulated, and California Air Resources Board-compliant), diverse diesel fuels (low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and CARB diesel), jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalts, petrochemicals, and lubricants. This division also handles the sale of lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of the end of 2021, Valero managed 15 petroleum refineries, boasting a combined daily processing capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil. The Ethanol division comprises 12 plants, capable of producing around 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually.…
Historical context
All VLO earningsEnergy peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB Slb N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.7% | +7.1% | SLB Q3 2026: Growth Broadens Beyond Core Oilfield |
| E Eni S.p.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | +4.3% | Eni pairs upstream growth with record shareholder returns and transition progress |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Get the VLO recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-27T04:50:43.325641+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-27T04:50:43.322941+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-27. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.