Visa Inc. · V · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2024

Visa: Strong Q4 Growth, With Regulation Still the Key Risk

The supplied analysis supports the view that Visa's earnings growth and resilient payment demand can support the business trajectory: Q4 growth was broad across new flows and value-added services, while management maintained a constructive FY2025 outlook. The main counterweights are regulatory exposure, pricing and incentive timing, macro sensitivity and competition from account-to-account payments.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $761.61B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.71 Consensus $2.58
EPS surprise +5.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $9.62B Consensus $9.49B
Revenue surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.9% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +3.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +8.5% Up to 20 sessions
VSPY benchmark

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Why did V rise 2.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q4?What changed in V's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for V after FY2024 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, Visa reported stronger Q4 revenue and EPS growth, highlighted a 22% increase in new flows revenue and advanced new initiatives including Visa A2A, Flexible Credential and the intended Featurespace acquisition. The risk discussion also became more focused on DOJ litigation, U.S. debit exposure and pay-by-bank competition.

Guidance delta

Maintained direction: management projected FY2025 adjusted net-revenue growth in the high-single to low-double-digit range, supported by stable volume trends and higher incentives.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 net revenue rose 12% year over year to $9.6 billion and EPS increased 16%, according to the supplied analysis.
  • New flows revenue grew 22%, with Visa Direct transactions up 38%; value-added services revenue increased 22%.
  • Management highlighted Visa A2A, Flexible Credential and AI-enabled fraud tools as product priorities for 2025.
  • The growth outlook remained constructive, but DOJ litigation, Regulation II, CFPB open-banking rules and account-to-account competition remain important watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Expand Visa A2A, initially targeting a UK rollout in 2025
  • Launch Flexible Credential across the U.S., Asia Pacific, Europe and CEMEA in 2025
  • Complete and integrate Featurespace to strengthen AI-driven fraud tools
  • Increase AI adoption across engineering, sales and client service

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
V EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $2.44 Q2 '24 actual $2.51, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.42 Q3 '24 actual $2.42, match Q4 '24 estimate $2.58 Q4 '24 actual $2.71, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.85 Q3 '25 actual $2.98, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.97 Q4 '25 actual $2.98, match Q1 '26 estimate $3.14 Q1 '26 actual $3.17, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.10 Q2 '26 actual $3.31, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.23 Q3 '26 actual $3.32, beat Q4 '26 estimate $3.44 Q1 '27 estimate $3.61 Q2 '27 estimate $3.66
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish5386.9%
Neutral813.1%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$407.92Current
$215Low
$350.15Average
$466High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 23, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 12, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 31, 2026
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 3, 2026
Show 56 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $407.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Truist FinancialMatthew Coad$443$414.34 +8.6%Oct 23, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$425$397.58 +4.2%Oct 15, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$430$385.45 +5.4%Oct 12, 2026
RBC CapitalDaniel Perlin$466$381.6 +14.2%Aug 31, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$460$382.41 +12.8%Aug 25, 2026
See 117 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Visa Inc. functions globally as a leading technology company dedicated to payments. Its primary role is to enable the secure and efficient digital transfer of funds among a wide array of participants, including individual consumers, retail businesses, banking institutions, corporations, strategic partners, and governmental bodies. At the heart of its operations is VisaNet, a highly sophisticated transaction processing network that handles the critical functions of authorizing, clearing, and settling all payment transactions.…

Historical context

All V earnings
+0.6%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026+8.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q2 2026-3.0%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q1 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
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FCNCA First Citizens BancShares, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +8.2% First Citizens posts strong Q3, raises Q4 outlook as loans and deposits grow
FCNCN First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.625% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series E FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +0.2% First Citizens raises 2026 outlook after strong Q3 growth
FCNCO First Citizens BancShares, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +1.0% First Citizens raises guidance after strong Q3 loan and deposit growth
FCNCP First Citizens BancShares, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +1.0% First Citizens reports strong Q3 and raises 2026 guidance
AXP American Express Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +4.0% -3.7% American Express raises EPS outlook as premium growth and AI expand
BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -7.7% +3.0% Bradesco: Loan growth and capital strength offset credit risks

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T10:20:43.792002+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T10:20:43.789192+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.