Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish2045.5%
Neutral2045.4%
Bearish49.1%
United Parcel Service, Inc. · UPS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
UPS Q4: Stronger margins, leaner network, transition risks
UPS’s Q4 analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: revenue quality, automation, healthcare logistics and digital platforms can support efficiency and growth, while the Amazon glide-down and trade-policy changes remain important offsets.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$79.37B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.38
Consensus $2.20
EPS surprise
+8.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$24.50B
Consensus $24.01B
Revenue surprise
+2.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.2%
Up to 20 sessions
UPSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about UPS FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did UPS rise 0.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in UPS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for UPS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis shifts from network reconfiguration and planned Amazon volume reduction toward a completed MD-11 retirement, additional 2026 Amazon reductions, broader automation and RFID deployment, and lower expected 2026 capex.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management paired a positive Q4 outlook with modest 2026 revenue growth and margin expansion plans.
Key takeaways
- UPS reported a strong fourth quarter, with record revenue-per-piece growth and margin expansion.
- Management expects another 1 million pieces per day of Amazon volume reduction in 2026 as the U.S. network becomes leaner.
- Automation and RFID initiatives are intended to improve productivity and cost efficiency.
- Healthcare logistics and the Digital Access platform remain central growth areas while capex is expected to decline in 2026.
Management priorities
- Complete the Amazon glide-down and achieve a leaner U.S. network by mid-2026.
- Increase U.S. volume automation to 68% by year-end 2026.
- Open a new air hub in the Philippines in late 2026 and expand in Hong Kong by 2028.
- Expand SmartPacket RFID labeling and the digital platform globally.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$93.44Previous close
$45Low
$142.15Average
$275High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 31, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 3, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 31, 2024 |
| Daiwa Capital | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 26, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 20, 2022 |
| CFRA | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 29, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 16, 2018 |
| Aegis Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 28, 2015 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 19, 2013 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2013 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Apr 18, 2013 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 14, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $93.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $104.9 | +23.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $105.59 | +25.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.59 | +28.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $115 | $105.59 | +23.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $105.59 | +39.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $105.59 | +32.7% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $131 | $105.59 | +40.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $131 | $105.59 | +40.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $105.59 | +41.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $105.56 | +26.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $117 | $113.19 | +25.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $133 | $113.19 | +42.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $110 | -18.7% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $105.44 | +18.8% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $103.92 | +26.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $103.92 | +35.9% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $114 | $106.61 | +22.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $106.35 | +24.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $104.9 | +23.1% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $125 | $105.92 | +33.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $107.22 | +17.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $107.22 | +23.1% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $107.22 | +24.1% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $107.22 | +23.1% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $107.22 | +33.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $128 | $107.22 | +37.0% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $107.22 | +17.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $113 | $106.54 | +20.9% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $115 | $106.44 | +23.1% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $108.03 | -9.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $125 | $106.96 | +33.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $105.24 | +24.1% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $100.96 | +6.0% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $100.06 | +19.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $97.09 | +17.7% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $113 | $96.36 | +20.9% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Scott Schneeberger | $107 | $96.4 | +14.5% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $96.36 | +12.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $105 | $96.52 | +12.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $96 | $96.36 | +2.7% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $122 | $96.4 | +30.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $92 | $88.06 | -1.5% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $100 | $83.18 | +7.0% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Stephens | Reed Seay | $86 | $83.18 | -8.0% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $110 | $85.57 | +17.7% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $84.38 | -5.8% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $96 | $85.05 | +2.7% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $84.33 | +28.4% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $86.9 | -14.4% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $87.18 | +28.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $87.18 | -19.7% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $87.18 | +7.0% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $87.18 | +28.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Manav Patnaik | $45 | $99.36 | -51.8% | Jun 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $105 | $94.6 | +12.4% | May 1, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $115 | $111.29 | +23.1% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $150 | $130.22 | +60.5% | Dec 10, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $141 | $131.33 | +50.9% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $120 | $135.93 | +28.4% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $162 | $132.18 | +73.4% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ariel Rosa | $162 | $130.96 | +73.4% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $151 | $128.53 | +61.6% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $135 | $127.68 | +44.5% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $140 | $127.68 | +49.8% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $151 | $127.68 | +61.6% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $176 | $127.68 | +88.4% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $156 | $136.14 | +67.0% | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Scott Schneeberger | $157 | $138.67 | +68.0% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $170 | $146.62 | +81.9% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $150 | $147.33 | +60.5% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $170 | $147.33 | +81.9% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $175 | $145.16 | +87.3% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $165 | $143.79 | +76.6% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $155 | $144.22 | +65.9% | Feb 15, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $175 | $145.92 | +87.3% | Feb 6, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $195 | $156.62 | +108.7% | Oct 13, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $185 | $190.67 | +98.0% | Apr 13, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Scott Schneeberger | $199 | $179.7 | +113.0% | Mar 13, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler | $207 | $184.98 | +121.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $181.07 | +108.7% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $185.23 | +120.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $175.74 | +108.7% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $178.43 | +117.3% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $179.91 | +135.4% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $100 | $163.89 | +7.0% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $161.66 | +7.0% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $172.99 | $173.83 | +85.1% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $170.25 | +92.6% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $181.75 | +136.5% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $181.53 | +138.7% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $181.53 | +135.4% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $181.53 | +114.0% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $180.08 | +124.7% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $225 | $182.07 | +140.8% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $227 | $182.24 | +142.9% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $225 | $184.63 | +140.8% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $187.11 | +130.1% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $184.48 | +135.4% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $184.56 | +114.0% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $184.51 | +58.4% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $183.05 | +108.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $183.05 | +135.4% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $183.86 | +141.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $183.85 | +167.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $189 | $187.16 | +102.3% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $275 | $232.11 | +194.3% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Amit Mehrotra | $216 | $230.44 | +131.2% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $275 | $230.44 | +194.3% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Todd Fowler | $265 | $230.44 | +183.6% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $250 | $230.44 | +167.6% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | William Fitzalan Howard | $200 | $230.44 | +114.0% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $245 | $230.44 | +162.2% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $259 | $229.02 | +177.2% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Allison Poliniak | $270 | $229.02 | +189.0% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Robert Joynson | $191 | $200.83 | +104.4% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Scott Schneeberger | $236 | $209.64 | +152.6% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $215 | $199.69 | +130.1% | Jun 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on UPS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationUnited Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia.…
Historical context
All UPS earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Get the UPS recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T10:16:08.539642+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T10:16:08.536693+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.