Ulta Beauty, Inc. · ULTA · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Ulta pivots to execution after market-share loss

The supplied analysis supports a conditional recovery case: resilient demand and new growth initiatives could help Ulta, but execution, market-share recovery, and margin discipline remain unproven.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $26.70B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $7.09
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $3.47B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +13.7% Event window
SPY move +2.1% Same window
Abnormal move +11.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +1.1% Up to 20 sessions
ULTASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the narrative shifted from raised expectations and resilient prestige demand toward a broader execution reset after market-share loss, with maintained guidance and deliberate investment-related margin pressure.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook while accepting near-term margin pressure from investment and inflation.

Key takeaways

  • Management acknowledged a difficult reset after losing beauty-category market share.
  • The strategy emphasizes exclusive brands, wellness, digital capabilities, and a marketplace.
  • The central test is whether execution and cost initiatives can restore growth without worsening margin pressure.

Management priorities

  • Improve core retail execution and product presentation.
  • Expand wellness, exclusive brands, digital tools, and the marketplace.
  • Balance store investment with cost optimization and profitability.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ULTA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $7.53 Q4 '24 actual $8.08, beat Q1 '25 estimate $6.24 Q1 '25 actual $6.47, beat Q2 '25 estimate $5.46 Q2 '25 actual $5.30, miss Q2 '26 estimate $5.10 Q2 '26 actual $5.78, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.61 Q3 '26 actual $5.14, beat Q4 '26 estimate $8.10 Q4 '26 actual $8.01, miss Q1 '27 estimate $6.89 Q1 '27 actual $7.74, beat Q2 '27 estimate $6.22 Q2 '27 actual $6.55, beat Q3 '27 estimate $5.79 Q4 '27 estimate $9.12
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy46 ratings
Bullish2758.7%
Neutral1941.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$624.46Current
$345Low
$587.08Average
$790High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeSep 15, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 28, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $624.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$730$635.01 +16.9%Oct 23, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$525$548.65 -15.9%Sep 15, 2026
BMO CapitalKelly Crago$580$549.23 -7.1%Sep 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$631$517.03 +1.0%Aug 28, 2026
UBSMichael Lasser$710$540.1 +13.7%Aug 28, 2026
See 141 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Historical context

All ULTA earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-27T00:01:03.097539+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T22:10:42.334724+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T22:10:42.331092+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.