Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold26 ratings
Bullish1350.0%
Neutral1246.2%
Bearish13.8%
Trane Technologies plc · TT · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Trane raises revenue outlook as HVAC and data-center demand stay strong
The supplied analysis supports a constructive near-term operating thesis for Trane: strong Q3 growth, a larger backlog and resilient service and data-center demand underpin the raised revenue outlook. The main counterweights are supply-chain, inflation, labor, regulatory and geopolitical pressures that could limit margin expansion.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$98.67B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $4.73
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $6.50B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
TTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TT FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TT's -3.9% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in TT's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TT after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Q3 organic revenue growth accelerated from 9% to 16%, the backlog increased from $12.1 billion to $12.5 billion, and full-year organic revenue guidance moved from about 9% to about 11%. Management highlighted Cancoil as a new supply-chain action and reaffirmed EPS guidance.
Guidance delta
Full-year organic revenue growth outlook was raised to about 11%; EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $15.20-$15.30.
Key takeaways
- Q3 organic revenue grew 16% and adjusted EPS grew 25%.
- Backlog reached $12.5 billion, with commercial HVAC and data-center thermal management among the highlighted drivers.
- Service, transport recovery and Stellar modular data-center solutions support the growth outlook, while supply-chain and inflation risks remain.
Management priorities
- Deploy more than $3.4 billion in capital expenditures.
- Scale Stellar modular data-center solutions toward a $1 billion run-rate.
- Address component supply constraints through the Cancoil acquisition and operational measures.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$431.1Current
$155Low
$381.25Average
$585High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2022 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $431.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $485 | $471.29 | +12.5% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $565 | $478.01 | +31.1% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $536 | $438.54 | +24.3% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $471.95 | +28.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $470.76 | +27.6% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $565 | $484.6 | +31.1% | May 4, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $530 | $495.64 | +22.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $475 | $495.3 | +10.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $495.82 | +29.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $492.54 | +28.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $585 | $492.54 | +35.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $477.24 | +21.8% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Andrew Buscaglia | $550 | $472.94 | +27.6% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $468 | $426.07 | +8.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $426.07 | +4.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $470 | $426.07 | +9.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $507 | $426.07 | +17.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $460 | $389.53 | +6.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $381.7 | +3.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Scott Davis | $490 | $381.1 | +13.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $505 | $381.1 | +17.1% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $399.28 | +20.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $398 | -14.2% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $390.84 | +16.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $506 | $409.07 | +17.4% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $449.42 | +16.0% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $485 | $401.28 | +12.5% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $433.97 | +16.0% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $460 | $431.44 | +6.7% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $344.65 | +10.2% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $380 | $379.96 | -11.9% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $405 | $375.52 | -6.1% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $425 | $397.5 | -1.4% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $408 | $399.86 | -5.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $425 | $342.91 | -1.4% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $350 | $334.28 | -18.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $380 | $321.5 | -11.9% | Jun 4, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $320 | $317.34 | -25.8% | May 1, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $325 | $312.71 | -24.6% | May 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $330 | $313.64 | -23.5% | May 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $354 | $317.34 | -17.9% | May 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $185.73 | -52.9% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $185.12 | -57.1% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $185.39 | -58.9% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $185.14 | -59.2% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $187.08 | -49.4% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | John Joyner | $180 | $168.75 | -58.2% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $155 | $138.44 | -64.0% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole Deblase | $184 | $167.18 | -57.3% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $195 | $175.49 | -54.8% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $214 | $194.01 | -50.4% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $206 | $198.94 | -52.2% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $205 | $179.55 | -52.4% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $210 | $179.55 | -51.3% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $200 | $177 | -53.6% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $200 | $195.81 | -53.6% | Sep 1, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $160 | $191.87 | -62.9% | Aug 9, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $220 | $193.39 | -49.0% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $207 | $199.35 | -52.0% | Jul 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTrane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration. It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; air sourced heat pumps; chillers; coils and condensers; auxiliary power, cold storage, and condensing units; controls contracting and commissioning, decarbonization programs, and gensets; dehumidifiers; energy and water efficiency programs; energy recovery ventilators and power solutions; energy storage; furnaces; home automation; humidifiers; HVAC performance-monitoring products; and indoor air quality assessments and related products for HVAC and transport solutions.…
Historical context
All TT earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +5.5% | Howmet Q3: Strong Demand, Higher Guidance, and Capacity Risk |
| EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +1.6% | EMCOR raises 2026 outlook as data-center demand lifts RPO |
| LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +6.8% | L3Harris lifts guidance as backlog and cash flow accelerate |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.9% | A. O. Smith refocuses on North America as boilers lead growth |
| STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.3% | -0.4% | Sterling raises 2026 outlook as E-Infrastructure demand accelerates |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -3.6% | XPO pairs strong Q3 growth with AI-led efficiency gains |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- EHCFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+11.8% EPS+7.7% move
- AGIFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 20260.0% EPS-9.0% move
- ARFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+22.3% EPS-2.2% move
- INVHFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+49.5% EPS-0.4% move
- AEMFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+5.7% EPS-3.9% move
- ORLYFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+4.3% EPS-2.7% move
Get the TT recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T19:05:27.780913+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-29T01:23:20.584741+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-29T23:50:43.216723+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-29T23:50:43.214071+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.