Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold26 ratings
Bullish1246.2%
Neutral1350.0%
Bearish13.8%
Trane Technologies plc · TT · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Trane Technologies: Strong Q1, Guidance Maintained
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: strong commercial HVAC and service demand, record bookings, and backlog provide support for management’s maintained outlook. The thesis is not without challenge, as tariff execution, transport refrigeration weakness, China, and concentration in selected verticals remain key tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$105.17B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.19
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.46B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+8.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+8.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+12.8%
Up to 20 sessions
TTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TT FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TT's +8.5% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in TT's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for TT after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis points to stronger Q1 operating momentum, about $500 million of additional backlog, and a more explicit $250–$275 million tariff exposure. Guidance remained unchanged, while transport refrigeration weakness and China competition stayed important risks.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2025 guidance for 7–8% organic revenue growth and $12.70–$12.90 adjusted EPS, with confidence in reaching the high end.
Key takeaways
- Management analysis described 11% organic revenue growth and 26% adjusted EPS growth in Q1.
- Record commercial HVAC bookings added about $500 million to backlog.
- Management said expected tariff costs of $250–$275 million would be addressed through pricing and cost actions.
- Residential demand was supported by the 454B refrigerant transition, while transport refrigeration remained weak.
Management priorities
- Continue commercial HVAC, service, liquid-cooling, and thermal-management innovation.
- Pursue selective bolt-on acquisitions, particularly in EMEA.
- Use excess cash for dividends, repurchases, and targeted reinvestment.
- Expand the direct-sales model in applied HVAC projects.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$478.01Previous close
$155Low
$372.71Average
$585High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2022 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $478.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $536 | $438.54 | +12.1% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $471.95 | +16.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $470.76 | +15.1% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $565 | $484.6 | +18.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $530 | $495.64 | +10.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $475 | $495.3 | -0.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $495.82 | +17.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $492.54 | +16.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $585 | $492.54 | +22.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $477.24 | +9.8% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Andrew Buscaglia | $550 | $472.94 | +15.1% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $468 | $426.07 | -2.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $426.07 | -5.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $470 | $426.07 | -1.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $507 | $426.07 | +6.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $460 | $389.53 | -3.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $381.7 | -6.9% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Scott Davis | $490 | $381.1 | +2.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $505 | $381.1 | +5.6% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $399.28 | +8.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $398 | -22.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $390.84 | +4.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $506 | $409.07 | +5.9% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $449.42 | +4.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $485 | $401.28 | +1.5% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $433.97 | +4.6% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $460 | $431.44 | -3.8% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $344.65 | -0.6% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $380 | $379.96 | -20.5% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $405 | $375.52 | -15.3% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $425 | $397.5 | -11.1% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $408 | $399.86 | -14.6% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $425 | $342.91 | -11.1% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $350 | $334.28 | -26.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $380 | $321.5 | -20.5% | Jun 4, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $320 | $317.34 | -33.1% | May 1, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $325 | $312.71 | -32.0% | May 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $330 | $313.64 | -31.0% | May 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $354 | $317.34 | -25.9% | May 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $185.73 | -57.5% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $185.12 | -61.3% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $185.39 | -63.0% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $185.14 | -63.2% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $187.08 | -54.4% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | John Joyner | $180 | $168.75 | -62.3% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $155 | $138.44 | -67.6% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole Deblase | $184 | $167.18 | -61.5% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $195 | $175.49 | -59.2% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $214 | $194.01 | -55.2% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $206 | $198.94 | -56.9% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $205 | $179.55 | -57.1% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $210 | $179.55 | -56.1% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $200 | $177 | -58.2% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $200 | $195.81 | -58.2% | Sep 1, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $160 | $191.87 | -66.5% | Aug 9, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $220 | $193.39 | -54.0% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $207 | $199.35 | -56.7% | Jul 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTrane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration. It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; air sourced heat pumps; chillers; coils and condensers; auxiliary power, cold storage, and condensing units; controls contracting and commissioning, decarbonization programs, and gensets; dehumidifiers; energy and water efficiency programs; energy recovery ventilators and power solutions; energy storage; furnaces; home automation; humidifiers; HVAC performance-monitoring products; and indoor air quality assessments and related products for HVAC and transport solutions.…
Historical context
All TT earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-16T00:02:45.914612+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T07:30:42.800034+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T07:30:42.797335+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.