Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1875.0%
Neutral625.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · TSM · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
TSMC: AI demand supports expansion, with ramp and policy risks
The transcript analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of TSMC’s growth trajectory: resilient AI and HPC demand, advanced-node adoption and packaging expansion provide support, but the thesis remains dependent on execution, capacity discipline and manageable margin and policy headwinds.
Reported Session unavailableNYSETechnology
$2189.99B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.92
Consensus $2.63
EPS surprise
+11.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$32.36B
Consensus $32.07B
Revenue surprise
+0.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move
-1.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.9%
Up to 20 sessions
TSMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TSM FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TSM fall 1.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TSM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TSM after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter, the analysis shifts to a maintained-guidance outlook with stronger reported execution: Q3 revenue and margins exceeded guidance, capex was narrowed to $40–42 billion, and management added detail on Arizona capacity expansion while continuing N2, A16 and advanced-packaging ramps.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance: Q4 revenue is expected to dip modestly sequentially while margins remain around 60%; 2025 capex is $40–42 billion.
Key takeaways
- Management described AI demand as a primary growth engine and cited a mid-40% CAGR target through 2029.
- Q3 revenue and margins exceeded guidance, according to the transcript analysis.
- Capacity expansion continues across advanced nodes, packaging, Arizona, Japan and Germany.
- The investment case depends on AI demand, CoWoS execution and successful 2-nm and A16 ramps.
- FX, overseas-fab dilution, export controls and possible AI over-capacity remain important risks.
Management priorities
- Ramp N2 volume production and launch N2P.
- Begin A16 volume production in H2 2026.
- Expand Arizona capacity and complete specialty fabs in Japan and Germany.
- Direct capex toward advanced nodes, specialty technology and advanced packaging.
Follow TSM with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$422.25Current
$125Low
$517.83Average
$700High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 11, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2021 |
| New Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| China Renaissance | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Sep 5, 2019 |
| CLSA | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2019 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 19, 2018 |
| Pacific Crest | Underweight | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2016 | |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $422.25. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Charles Shi | $560 | $430 | +32.6% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $414 | +22.0% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $554 | $423.66 | +31.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $530 | $403.41 | +25.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $409.74 | +18.4% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $409.74 | +53.9% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $419.48 | +42.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $625 | $432.35 | +48.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $575 | $468.86 | +36.2% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $441.4 | +65.8% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $368.13 | +13.7% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $368.1 | +6.6% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $341.64 | +6.6% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $349.35 | -2.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $294.72 | -21.8% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $355 | $299.84 | -15.9% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $303.26 | -14.7% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $299.88 | -5.3% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $304.52 | -21.8% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $262.06 | -23.0% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $265 | $228.67 | -37.2% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $215 | $147.86 | -49.1% | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $210 | $165.77 | -50.3% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $200 | $179.69 | -52.6% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $200 | $172.51 | -52.6% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $168 | $145.4 | -60.2% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $180 | $141.49 | -57.4% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $135 | $98.07 | -68.0% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $118 | $99.82 | -72.1% | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $110 | $79.4 | -73.9% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $88 | $86.3 | -79.2% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $100 | $87.11 | -76.3% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Krish Sankar | $125 | $140.66 | -70.4% | Jan 16, 2022 |
Track every rating change on TSM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the United States. The company is renowned for its diverse array of wafer fabrication processes.…
Historical context
All TSM earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +28.6% | +11.8% | Ericsson Q3: 7% organic growth, resilient margins and AI-led demand |
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.8% | Wipro keeps AI strategy central as margins improve |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.4% | -3.9% | ASML: Record Q3, strong AI demand and broader capacity plans |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SCHW-PJFY2026 Q3 · October 15, 2026+2.4% EPS— move
- SCHW-PDFY2026 Q3 · October 15, 2026+2.4% EPS— move
- SCHWFY2026 Q3 · October 15, 2026+2.4% EPS-2.7% move
- TSMFY2026 Q3 · October 15, 2026+3.4% EPS-1.8% move
- MRSHFY2026 Q3 · October 15, 2026+3.0% EPS+4.6% move
- ERICFY2026 Q3 · October 15, 2026+28.6% EPS+11.8% move
Get the TSM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T02:00:44.056867+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T02:00:44.053987+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.