Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1875.0%
Neutral625.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · TSM · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
TSMC: AI demand supports expansion, while overseas costs weigh
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: resilient AI and HPC demand can support growth, but the benefits depend on execution across advanced packaging and leading-edge capacity while overseas expansion, tariffs, and geopolitics pressure margins and demand.
Reported Before market openNYSETechnology
$2170.59B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.02
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $834.33B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+28.0%
Up to 20 sessions
TSMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TSM FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TSM's +0.0% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in TSM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for TSM after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis placed greater emphasis on the additional U.S. investment, Arizona’s role in 2-nanometer capacity, tariff risk, and expected margin dilution from overseas expansion; the growth case remained centered on AI, HPC, and advanced packaging.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis highlighted strong sequential Q2 revenue growth and an operating-margin outlook of 47%–49%.
Key takeaways
- AI and HPC demand remained the central growth drivers in the supplied analysis.
- Management planned to expand CoWoS capacity and advance 2-nanometer and related technology ramps.
- The analysis highlighted a $100 billion additional U.S. investment and a larger Arizona footprint.
- Overseas expansion and inflation were identified as sources of margin dilution.
- Tariffs, trade restrictions, geopolitics, and China exposure remained material risks.
Management priorities
- Expand advanced packaging capacity
- Ramp 2-nanometer production and related process extensions
- Build out Arizona capacity, packaging, and research facilities
- Continue specialty-fab projects in Japan and Germany
- Support AI-accelerator and high-performance-computing demand
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$418.51Previous close
$125Low
$521.58Average
$700High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 11, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2021 |
| New Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| China Renaissance | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Sep 5, 2019 |
| CLSA | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2019 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 19, 2018 |
| Pacific Crest | Underweight | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2016 | |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $418.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $670 | $422.25 | +60.1% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $560 | $430 | +33.8% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $414 | +23.1% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $554 | $423.66 | +32.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $530 | $403.41 | +26.6% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $409.74 | +19.5% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $409.74 | +55.3% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $419.48 | +43.4% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $625 | $432.35 | +49.3% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $575 | $468.86 | +37.4% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $441.4 | +67.3% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $368.13 | +14.7% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $368.1 | +7.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $341.64 | +7.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $349.35 | -2.0% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $294.72 | -21.1% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $355 | $299.84 | -15.2% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $303.26 | -14.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $299.88 | -4.4% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $304.52 | -21.1% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $262.06 | -22.3% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $265 | $228.67 | -36.7% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $215 | $147.86 | -48.6% | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $210 | $165.77 | -49.8% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $200 | $179.69 | -52.2% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $200 | $172.51 | -52.2% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $168 | $145.4 | -59.9% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $180 | $141.49 | -57.0% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $135 | $98.07 | -67.7% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $118 | $99.82 | -71.8% | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $110 | $79.4 | -73.7% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $88 | $86.3 | -79.0% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $100 | $87.11 | -76.1% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Krish Sankar | $125 | $140.66 | -70.1% | Jan 16, 2022 |
Track every rating change on TSM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the United States. The company is renowned for its diverse array of wafer fabrication processes.…
Historical context
All TSM earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFY Infosys Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -4.8% | -6.6% | Infosys trims growth outlook as AI revenue and deal wins accelerate |
| SSNC SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | +2.8% | SS&C raises 2026 outlook as AI and tokenization support growth |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.7% | +9.7% | Roper raises DEPS outlook as AI adoption expands across portfolio |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -2.0% | -0.9% | VeriSign reports record registrations as renewal mix becomes a key watchpoint |
| TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.8% | -27.7% | TTM Technologies Q3: Record Growth, Higher Investment, More Deal Risk |
| NOK Nokia Oyj | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +25.0% | -14.8% | Nokia Q3: AI and cloud growth lifts margins as cash flow stays negative |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the TSM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-03T00:02:43.581688+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T08:50:41.243491+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T08:50:41.240699+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.