Tesla, Inc. · TSLA · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Tesla pairs robotaxi expansion with ambitious AI and energy plans

The supplied analysis supports a constructive long-term growth case built on autonomous mobility, energy storage and AI-related products, but it does not remove significant regulatory, policy and execution risks.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $1492.18B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.40 Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $22.50B Consensus $22.28B
Revenue surprise +1.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.2% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -8.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.9% Up to 20 sessions
TSLASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied analysis says robotaxi service had launched in Austin and points to planned expansion across additional U.S. regions. It also emphasizes record Powerwall deployments, expanding Megapack capacity and a more detailed roadmap for Optimus, Dojo and AI5, while the EV-credit repeal and tariff exposure add near-term challenges.

Guidance delta

Maintained, according to the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Management said robotaxi service launched in Austin and is intended to expand to additional U.S. regions.
  • The supplied analysis highlights continued Model Y demand and momentum in Powerwall and Megapack storage.
  • Longer-term plans center on Optimus, Dojo and the AI5 chip, but execution and regulatory hurdles remain.

Management priorities

  • Expand robotaxi coverage and pursue supervised FSD approvals in Europe and China.
  • Ramp the lower-cost vehicle and scale Optimus production.
  • Increase energy-storage capacity and develop Dojo and AI5 hardware.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TSLA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.51 Q1 '24 actual $0.45, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.62 Q2 '24 actual $0.52, miss Q3 '24 estimate $0.58 Q3 '24 actual $0.72, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.40 Q2 '25 actual $0.40, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.56 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.45 Q4 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.35 Q1 '26 actual $0.41, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.50 Q2 '26 actual $0.33, miss Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q4 '26 estimate $0.47 Q1 '27 estimate $0.49 Q2 '27 estimate $0.58
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold80 ratings
Bullish3442.5%
Neutral3138.8%
Bearish1518.7%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$382.7Current
$85Low
$322.17Average
$840High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 7, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 28, 2026
StoneX Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 16, 2026
GLJ Research Sell SellMaintainSep 4, 2026
Show 76 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $382.7. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSJoseph Spak$391$380.68 +2.2%Oct 7, 2026
HSBCMichael Tyndall$157$370.59 -59.0%Oct 5, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$360$356.58 -5.9%Sep 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyAndrew Percoco$840$365.44 +119.5%Sep 12, 2026
Stifel NicolausStephen Gengaro$491$311.21 +28.3%Aug 3, 2026
See 262 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T00:30:44.865555+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T00:30:44.862820+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.