Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish1763.0%
Neutral933.3%
Bearish13.7%
Trimble Inc. · TRMB · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Trimble Beats Estimates and Raises Guidance, but Shares Fall Sharply Post-Print
Trimble delivered a convincing Q1 FY2026 beat — revenue of $939.9M (up 12% YoY) exceeded estimates by 3.8% and EPS of $0.79 topped consensus by 9.7%. ARR grew 13% to $2.435B, and management raised full-year guidance to $3.875B revenue and $3.55 EPS. The call emphasized AI-driven product extensions (SketchUp-Claude integration, Document Crunch acquisition), consumption-based licensing with high token utilization, and continued cross-selling through the Connect & Scale platform. Yet the market reaction was decisively negative: shares fell 7.2% on the event session on 2.8x normal volume and drifted another 12% lower subsequently. The stock now trades at $57.06, well below the $70.50 analyst consensus target. The disconnect between strong fundamentals and a bearish market verdict is the central tension for investors to weigh.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$13.30B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationTrimble Inc. develops and supplies technology solutions globally, empowering professionals and field workers to significantly improve or revolutionize their operational workflows. Through its Buildings and Infrastructure segment, the company delivers a comprehensive array of digital tools for the construction sector. This includes software for route planning, 3D design, and data exchange, along with systems for guiding construction machinery and for monitoring and managing assets, personnel, and equipment. The segment also offers advanced Building Information Modeling (BIM), Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), and project management platforms. Furthermore, it provides integrated solutions for site layout, measurement, cost estimation, scheduling, and project control, alongside specialized applications tailored for subcontractors and various trades. The Geospatial segment focuses on advanced surveying products, geographic information systems (GIS), and related geospatial technologies.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.79
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+9.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$939.9M
Consensus $905.6M
Revenue surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$56.29Current
$61Low
$85.09Average
$101High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 2, 2023 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 5, 2023 |
| Northcoast Research | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 11, 2021 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 17, 2018 |
| Dougherty & Co. | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 30, 2017 |
| Dougherty | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 30, 2017 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 11, 2016 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 1, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2015 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2015 |
| Boenning & Scattergood | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2014 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2014 |
| Lazard | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 27, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $56.29. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $52.29 | +8.4% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $63.42 | +42.1% | May 7, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $86 | $68.88 | +52.8% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $80.61 | +79.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $80.13 | +75.9% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $77.02 | +67.0% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $102 | $79.72 | +81.2% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Guy Hardwick | $100 | $79.3 | +77.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $80.21 | +68.8% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $88 | $73.96 | +56.3% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Clarke Jeffries | $84 | $61.3 | +49.2% | Nov 7, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Clarke Jeffries | $73 | $63.42 | +29.7% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Clarke Jeffries | $68 | $54.69 | +20.8% | Feb 12, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Brian Gesuale | $65 | $53.93 | +15.5% | Sep 29, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Clarke Jeffries | $65 | $55.04 | +15.5% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $55.18 | +15.5% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Weston Twigg | $100 | $65.23 | +77.7% | May 20, 2022 |
Track every rating change on TRMB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.2%
Event window
SPY move
+1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-12.2%
Up to 20 sessions
TRMBSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
From Q4 FY2025 to Q1 FY2026: Revenue growth accelerated from 9% to 12% YoY, while ARR growth decelerated modestly from 14% to 13%. Guidance sentiment shifted from 'maintained' to 'raised.' New developments include the Document Crunch acquisition (AI-powered construction risk management), SketchUp integration with Anthropic's Claude LLM for AI-driven 3D modeling, and reported high utilization of AI token credits signaling early traction in consumption-based monetization. The bullish score increased from 78 to 85, reflecting management's increased confidence.
Guidance delta
FY2026 guidance was raised modestly. Updated targets: $3.875B revenue, $3.55 EPS, 13% ARR growth, and 29.7% EBITDA margin. Prior quarter guidance projected approximately 7.5% revenue growth and targeted EBITDA margin expansion. The raise reflects Q1 outperformance and continued recurring revenue momentum, though management acknowledged reduced visibility on hardware timing and potential second-half demand normalization in Field Systems.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue of $940M (up 12% YoY) and EPS of $0.79 beat estimates by 3.8% and 9.7% respectively, driving a modest FY2026 guidance raise.
- AI strategy is expanding the addressable market through platform integration, consumption-based licensing, and the Document Crunch acquisition.
- Document Crunch acquisition creates an AI-powered construction risk-management category within Trimble Construction One.
- Double-digit ARR growth ($2.435B, up 13%) and margin expansion across AECO, Field Systems, and Transportation segments.
- High utilization of AI token credits signals strong early adoption of consumption-based AI monetization.
Management priorities
- Scale hybrid licensing models combining named-user seats with consumption credits.
- Roll out Document Crunch functionality across Trimble Construction One and ERP workflows.
- Deepen AI integration across product lines, including autonomous workflow initiatives.
- Continue geographic expansion of Trimble Construction One into APAC and Europe.
- Host developer conference and user event (Trimble Dimensions) to stimulate ecosystem growth.
Related earnings events
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Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.