Toast, Inc. · TOST · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Toast lifts FY2026 outlook as AI and expansion initiatives gain traction

The quarter adds evidence that Toast is combining growth in its core restaurant base with broader monetization and new-market opportunities. Whether AI and adjacent-market expansion can scale while preserving margins remains unresolved.

Why did TOST rise 2.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?

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Reported After market closeNYSETechnology $18.25B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.34 Consensus $0.32
EPS surprise +5.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.91B Consensus $1.87B
Revenue surprise +1.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.9% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +3.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -2.2% Up to 20 sessions
TOSTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Toast raised its full-year outlook, reported recurring gross profit growth of 28% and GAAP operating margin of 26%, and recorded 9,500 net location adds. Management also highlighted Toast IQ Grow, new hospitality and international wins, and the start of fuel-payment processing.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY2026 recurring gross profit growth guidance from 21–23% to 23–25% and adjusted EBITDA guidance from $790–810 million to $805–825 million.

Key takeaways

  • Toast IQ Grow was described as its fastest-growing product and was on track to reach $10 million ARR; management said it is contributing to higher ARPU.
  • Core activity remained strong in the reported quarter, with 28% recurring gross profit growth and a record 9,500 net location adds.
  • The company is extending beyond its core restaurant footprint through hospitality, international, grocery and fuel-payment initiatives.
  • The raised outlook supports the growth case, but hardware costs and the economics of newer offerings remain important execution tests.

Management priorities

  • Expand Toast IQ with additional agentic modules for payroll, tax, scheduling, inventory and bookkeeping.
  • Scale fuel payments and pursue further grocery and convenience-store locations.
  • Deepen enterprise hotel relationships and continue Tier 1 international expansion.
  • Use internal AI tools to improve operational efficiency while managing hardware costs.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TOST EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.01 Q2 '24 actual $0.02, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.02 Q3 '24 actual $0.07, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.23 Q2 '25 actual $0.24, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.24 Q3 '25 actual $0.25, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.24 Q4 '25 actual $0.23, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.27 Q1 '26 actual $0.29, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.32 Q2 '26 actual $0.34, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.37 Q3 '26 actual $0.29, miss Q4 '26 estimate $0.34 Q1 '27 estimate $0.37 Q2 '27 estimate $0.42 Q3 '27 estimate $0.47
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish2161.8%
Neutral1338.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$35.37Current
$17Low
$39.04Average
$140High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainNov 4, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 19, 2026
BNP Paribas Neutral OutperformDowngradeSep 2, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 31, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 10, 2026
Show 29 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $35.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Piper SandlerBilly Fitzsimmons$39$35.45 +10.3%Nov 4, 2026
NeedhamMayank Tandon$45$33.53 +27.2%Nov 4, 2026
Morgan StanleyJosh Baer$42$33.53 +18.7%Nov 4, 2026
Truist FinancialMatthew Coad$38$31.62 +7.4%Oct 19, 2026
BNP ParibasThomas Poutrieux$35$33.59 -1.0%Sep 2, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Toast, Inc. delivers a comprehensive cloud-based digital technology platform tailored specifically for the restaurant sector, serving businesses across the United States and Ireland. Its extensive product suite features an array of hardware solutions, including the foundational Toast Point of Sale (POS) system. Toast Flex offers versatile functionality, adaptable as an on-counter order and payment terminal, a server workstation, a guest kiosk, a kitchen display system, or an order fulfillment hub. For enhanced tableside service and expedited table turnover, the company provides Toast Go, a handheld POS device facilitating ordering and payment acceptance directly at the table, alongside Toast Tap, a compact card reader. Beyond hardware, Toast supplies robust software solutions. Toast Order & Pay empowers guests to place orders and settle bills conveniently from their mobile devices. The platform integrates specialized kitchen display system software, streamlining communication between front-of-house staff and the kitchen team.…

Historical context

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-05T18:18:45.076297+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-05T05:00:45.895868+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-05T05:00:45.893109+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.