T-Mobile US, Inc. · TMUS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

T-Mobile raises service-revenue outlook as network and broadband plans expand

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: resilient demand, network positioning and broadband expansion are supporting growth, while execution and capital intensity will determine how durable that growth is.

Reported Before market openNASDAQCommunication Services $173.48B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.88 Consensus $2.05
EPS surprise -8.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $24.33B Consensus $24.17B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.1% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +5.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.3% Up to 20 sessions
TMUSSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about TMUS FY2025 Q4

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Why did TMUS rise 5.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TMUS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TMUS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shifts emphasis toward account-based reporting, a larger 2026-2027 service-revenue framework, accelerated capital returns and a broader product roadmap spanning broadband, AI RAN, 6G, financial services and advertising.

Guidance delta

Management raised 2026 and 2027 service-revenue guidance, with the supplied analysis citing $77 billion for 2026 and $80.5-$81.5 billion for 2027, including a $3-$4 billion M&A contribution.

Key takeaways

  • Management emphasized network quality, value, customer experience and improving NPS as core growth drivers.
  • The supplied analysis highlights raised service-revenue guidance, accelerated repurchases and a $10 billion capex plan.
  • Fixed wireless, fiber, AI RAN, 6G and new financial-services and advertising products broaden the growth agenda.

Management priorities

  • Scale fixed wireless and fiber broadband while moving toward account-based customer metrics.
  • Deploy AI RAN, pursue 6G field trials and expand AI-enabled customer experiences.
  • Continue UScellular integration, capital returns and development of financial-services and advertising businesses.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TMUS EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.90 Q4 '23 actual $1.67, miss Q1 '24 estimate $1.87 Q1 '24 actual $2.00, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.28 Q2 '24 actual $2.49, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.42 Q3 '24 actual $2.61, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.67 Q2 '25 actual $2.84, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.40 Q3 '25 actual $2.59, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.05 Q4 '25 actual $1.88, miss Q1 '26 estimate $2.01 Q1 '26 actual $2.27, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.59 Q2 '26 actual $2.99, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.89 Q4 '26 estimate $2.75 Q1 '27 estimate $3.34 Q2 '27 estimate $3.64
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish4178.9%
Neutral1019.2%
Bearish11.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$161.73Current
$100Low
$215.79Average
$310High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeAug 14, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 24, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJul 24, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $161.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$232$178.92 +43.4%Jul 24, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$250$178.6 +54.6%Jul 24, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$235$177.29 +45.3%Jul 24, 2026
Williams TradingGreg Williams$260$176.92 +60.8%Jul 24, 2026
KeyBancBrandon Nispel$250$170.42 +54.6%Jul 24, 2026
See 90 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Catering to approximately 108.7 million subscribers, the company delivers essential voice, messaging, and data connectivity to customers in postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale segments. Beyond services, T-Mobile also supplies a broad array of wireless devices, such as smartphones, wearables, tablets, and other mobile communication gadgets, along with associated accessories.…

Historical context

All TMUS earnings
-10.7%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+6.1%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T02:16:12.685508+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T02:16:12.682722+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.