T-Mobile US, Inc. · TMUS · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

T-Mobile raises growth outlook as network expansion accelerates

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: raised growth guidance, strong postpaid additions, premium-plan uptake, and network, fiber, and satellite expansion provide multiple growth drivers. The thesis remains dependent on controlling churn and executing the UScellular and fiber initiatives without excessive capital strain.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $179.83B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.84 Consensus $2.67
EPS surprise +6.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $21.13B Consensus $21.04B
Revenue surprise +0.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +5.8% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +5.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.3% Up to 20 sessions
TMUSSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the supplied prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shows a higher bullish score, raised guidance for postpaid net additions and service revenue growth, a broader network build tied to UScellular, and more explicit near-term execution around fiber and satellite expansion.

Guidance delta

Management raised guidance for total postpaid net additions to 6.1–6.4 million and service revenue growth to at least 6%.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes a record Q2 with double-digit postpaid net additions and the highest ARPA growth in eight years.
  • Management highlighted Experience Beyond, T-Satellite, T-Fiber, 5G Advanced broadband, and Business 5G broadband as growth areas.
  • Network plans include approximately 4,000 new sites, while the UScellular transaction is expected to increase site count by one-third.
  • Fiber initiatives through Lumos and Metronet target 100,000 net adds.
  • The central debate is whether growth and network expansion can offset churn, integration, competitive, and capital-allocation risks.

Management priorities

  • Complete the UScellular acquisition by August 1.
  • Close the Metronet joint venture and launch T-Fiber commercially.
  • Deploy the remaining 3,000 of 4,000 planned greenfield sites.
  • Expand T-Satellite coverage.
  • Explore additional fiber acquisitions or partnerships.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TMUS REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $20B Q4 '23 actual $20B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $20B Q1 '24 actual $20B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $20B Q2 '24 actual $20B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $20B Q3 '24 actual $20B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $21B Q2 '25 actual $21B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $22B Q3 '25 actual $22B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $24B Q4 '25 actual $24B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $23B Q1 '26 actual $23B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $23B Q2 '26 actual $23B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $23B Q4 '26 estimate $25B Q1 '27 estimate $24B Q2 '27 estimate $24B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish4178.9%
Neutral1019.2%
Bearish11.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$149.83Current
$100Low
$215.47Average
$310High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainOct 2, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeAug 14, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 24, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $149.83. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$217$163.44 +44.8%Oct 2, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$232$178.92 +54.8%Jul 24, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$250$178.6 +66.9%Jul 24, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$235$177.29 +56.8%Jul 24, 2026
Williams TradingGreg Williams$260$176.92 +73.5%Jul 24, 2026
See 91 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Catering to approximately 108.7 million subscribers, the company delivers essential voice, messaging, and data connectivity to customers in postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale segments. Beyond services, T-Mobile also supplies a broad array of wireless devices, such as smartphones, wearables, tablets, and other mobile communication gadgets, along with associated accessories.…

Historical context

All TMUS earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T14:00:47.741832+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T14:00:47.739309+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.