T-Mobile US, Inc. · TMUS · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

T-Mobile pairs record Q1 growth with new fiber and satellite plans

The current analysis supports a constructive operating trajectory: record postpaid growth, strong service revenue, raised guidance, and new connectivity products. The evidence is balanced by unresolved questions around churn, handset tariffs, competitive spending, and fiber execution.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $164.90B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $2.47
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $20.65B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -11.2% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -11.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.3% Up to 20 sessions
TMUSSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shifts from planned launches and acquisitions toward initial execution: T-Mobile reported record Q1 operating momentum, introduced 5G Advanced and T Satellite details, and outlined the T Fiber launch. Guidance was raised again, while churn, tariffs, and fiber-venture execution remain the key watchpoints.

Guidance delta

Management raised expectations for postpaid ARPA growth to at least 3.5% and core adjusted EBITDA to $33.2-$33.7 billion; capex remained around $9.5 billion.

Key takeaways

  • The current analysis describes record Q1 postpaid additions across total, phone, and broadband categories.
  • Management highlighted 8% service-revenue growth, 8% core adjusted EBITDA growth, and record Q1 adjusted free cash flow of $4.4 billion.
  • New initiatives include nationwide 5G Advanced, T Fiber, $10-per-month T Satellite, and expanded TLIFE capabilities.
  • The main test is whether pricing, promotions, tariffs, and fiber execution affect churn and growth.

Management priorities

  • Scale 5G Advanced, T Fiber, and T Satellite
  • Use TLIFE and AI-driven customer experience tools
  • Expand T Priority and network-slicing offerings
  • Execute the Lumos and MetroNet fiber ventures

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TMUS REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $20B Q4 '23 actual $20B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $20B Q1 '24 actual $20B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $20B Q2 '24 actual $20B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $20B Q3 '24 actual $20B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $21B Q2 '25 actual $21B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $22B Q3 '25 actual $22B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $24B Q4 '25 actual $24B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $23B Q1 '26 actual $23B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $23B Q2 '26 actual $23B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $23B Q4 '26 estimate $25B Q1 '27 estimate $24B Q2 '27 estimate $24B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish4280.8%
Neutral917.3%
Bearish11.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$153.73Current
$100Low
$214.22Average
$310High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Raymond James Outperform Market PerformUpgradeOct 12, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainOct 9, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeAug 14, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $153.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinLaurent Yoon$180$151.87 +17.1%Oct 13, 2026
Raymond JamesFrank Louthan$170$148.58 +10.6%Oct 12, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$212$171.31 +37.9%Oct 9, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$217$163.44 +41.2%Oct 2, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$232$178.92 +50.9%Jul 24, 2026
See 94 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Catering to approximately 108.7 million subscribers, the company delivers essential voice, messaging, and data connectivity to customers in postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale segments. Beyond services, T-Mobile also supplies a broad array of wireless devices, such as smartphones, wearables, tablets, and other mobile communication gadgets, along with associated accessories.…

Historical context

All TMUS earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-10T00:01:43.729046+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T01:40:43.310798+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T01:40:43.307755+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.