Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy19 ratings
Bullish1789.5%
Neutral210.5%
Bearish00.0%
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. · TKO · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
TKO Q1 2026: Revenue and EBITDA Beat Estimates, Guidance Reaffirmed, $1B Buyback Added
TKO's Q1 2026 results confirm the company is executing on its transformational media rights strategy. Revenue of $1.597B edged consensus ($1.592B) and EPS of $1.12 beat by a penny, driven by new and higher-value media rights agreements across Paramount+, ESPN, Netflix, and CW, robust live-event demand with multiple sell-outs, and expanding financial incentive packages. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance ($5.675–$5.775B revenue, $2.24–$2.29B adjusted EBITDA) and authorized an incremental $1B share repurchase on top of the existing $2B program. The stock's initial reaction was modestly negative (abnormal move of −1.25% versus a −0.31% benchmark move), but subsequent drift of +8.52% suggests the market warmed to the results. With analyst consensus at $227.50 against a current price of $183.81, meaningful upside remains if execution continues.
Reported After market closeNYSECommunication Services
$13.78B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationTKO Group Holdings, Inc. stands as a significant enterprise within the sports and entertainment industries. Its business activities are primarily organized into four core divisions: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company is responsible for creating a diverse range of content, including live spectacles, television programs, and both lengthy and concise video productions.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.12
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+0.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.60B
Consensus $1.59B
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$182.56Current
$98Low
$204.33Average
$251High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $182.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Ian Moore | $235 | $186.08 | +28.7% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $184.56 | +26.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | David Joyce | $210 | $180.96 | +15.0% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $186.25 | +24.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $186.09 | +23.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Ian Moore | $240 | $186.5 | +31.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $213.28 | +36.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $237 | $213.28 | +29.8% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $210.38 | +31.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $251 | $203.27 | +37.5% | Jan 19, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $214.17 | +36.9% | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $211.62 | +15.0% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $205.22 | +24.3% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $197 | +26.0% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $229 | $178.97 | +25.4% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $191.21 | +17.2% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $198.15 | +28.7% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $197.35 | +26.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $198 | +23.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $205 | $195.79 | +12.3% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $201.38 | +28.7% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Vikram Kesavabhotla | $250 | $203.14 | +36.9% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Vikram Kesavabhotla | $225 | $194 | +23.2% | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $210 | $179.82 | +15.0% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $180 | $160.43 | -1.4% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $152.3 | -10.2% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Pivotal Research | Jeffrey Wlodarczak | $195 | $159.55 | +6.8% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Laszczyk | $165 | $151.97 | -9.6% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $128 | $142.14 | -29.9% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $148 | $125.36 | -18.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | David Joyce | $137 | $127.17 | -25.0% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Pivotal Research | Jeffrey Wlodarczak | $170 | $114.99 | -6.9% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Brent Navon | $140 | $117.98 | -23.3% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $118 | $116.92 | -35.4% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Randal Konik | $150 | $119.54 | -17.8% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $115 | $111.06 | -37.0% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $121 | $100.41 | -33.7% | May 9, 2024 |
| MoffettNathanson | Robert Fishman | $98 | $97.06 | -46.3% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $112 | $97.66 | -38.7% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Randal Konik | $131 | $97.66 | -28.2% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Laszczyk | $102 | $94.9 | -44.1% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peter Supino | $106 | $86.42 | -41.9% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peter Supino | $107 | $79.79 | -41.4% | Mar 15, 2024 |
Track every rating change on TKO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+8.5%
Up to 20 sessions
TKOSPY benchmark
Follow TKO with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
The prior quarter (Q4 2025) introduced initial FY2026 guidance and the FIPs concept; Q1 reaffirmed both with results tracking in line. New this quarter: an incremental $1B share-repurchase authorization layered on the existing $2B program; disclosure of an expected $30M loss on the UFC Freedom 250 White House event; an IMG long-term partnership with World Rugby for the 2031 and 2033 Rugby World Cups; and new sponsorship partners bet365, FRE Nicotine, and Supersure added to the roster. The competitor reference shifted from Warner Bros Discovery to Live Nation.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment: maintained. FY2026 revenue range of $5.675–$5.775B and adjusted EBITDA range of $2.24–$2.29B were reaffirmed, matching the targets introduced with initial guidance in the prior quarter (~21% revenue growth, ~43% EBITDA growth, margin expansion toward ~40%). Q1 results are tracking in line with those full-year targets.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue of $1.597B and adjusted EBITDA of $550M both up year over year, slightly ahead of consensus estimates.
- Media rights deals with Paramount+, CBS, ESPN, Netflix, and CW are delivering higher fees and expanding audience reach.
- Live-event demand remains robust with multiple sell-outs and record-setting gates across UFC, WWE, and PBR.
- Financial incentive packages (FIPs) are on track for the full-year outlook and remain a major incremental high-margin revenue source.
- An incremental $1B share-repurchase authorization was added on top of the existing $2B program.
- FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed: revenue $5.675–$5.775B, adjusted EBITDA $2.24–$2.29B.
Management priorities
- Execute UFC Freedom 250 at the White House in June (expected $30M loss)
- Stage upcoming UFC Fight Nights in Baku, Azerbaijan and Abu Dhabi, UAE
- Launch Zuffa Boxing events in the UK/Ireland and 15+ additional territories
- Execute IMG strategic partnership with World Rugby for 2031 and 2033 Rugby World Cups
- Continue FIFA World Cup 2026 hospitality program and LA28 sales efforts
- Complete the $800M ASR share repurchase and subsequent $200M 10b5-1 plan
Related earnings events
Communication ServicesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T11:02:49.856579+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T11:02:49.853850+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.