Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1848.6%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
TransDigm Group Incorporated · TDG · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2025
TransDigm raises EBITDA outlook as OEM weakness weighs on sales
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: aftermarket and defense demand, acquisitions, and cash generation strengthen the operating case, while OEM weakness, supply constraints, and margin mix create material counterweights.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$61.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$9.60
Consensus $9.89
EPS surprise
-2.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.24B
Consensus $2.30B
Revenue surprise
-2.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-11.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-11.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
6.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.8%
Up to 20 sessions
TDGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TDG FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TDG fall 11.9% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TDG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TDG after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis shows a raised guidance sentiment, completed and announced acquisitions, stronger defense growth, and a clearer offset between lower OEM sales expectations and higher EBITDA expectations.
Guidance delta
Sales guidance was reduced by $60 million, while EBITDA guidance was increased by $40 million, according to the supplied earnings analysis.
Key takeaways
- Commercial aftermarket growth remained positive, while defense revenue increased.
- Management characterized OEM weakness as temporary, tied to the Boeing strike and Airbus ramp challenges.
- Completed and announced acquisitions expand the proprietary component portfolio.
- Liquidity and cash generation support continued M&A and shareholder returns, subject to leverage discipline.
Management priorities
- Protect high-margin aftermarket and defense growth.
- Integrate Servotronics and Simmonds Precision while pursuing disciplined M&A.
- Manage leverage and continue shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,096.21Current
$660Low
$1,363.93Average
$1,871High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2026 | |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2024 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2024 |
| Alembic Global | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 16, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 22, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 4, 2019 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2019 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2015 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 13, 2014 |
| Great Lakes | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 9, 2012 |
| Auriga | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 30, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,096.21. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,116.2 | +27.7% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $1,331 | $1,140.32 | +21.4% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Strauss | $1,450 | $1,225.25 | +32.3% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,625 | $1,225.25 | +48.2% | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,256.65 | +27.7% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,695 | $1,244.39 | +54.6% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,405 | $1,275.05 | +28.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,345 | $1,215.34 | +22.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,575 | $1,215.08 | +43.7% | May 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,645 | $1,240.1 | +50.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,350 | $1,191.33 | +23.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,680 | $1,191.33 | +53.3% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,525 | $1,191.33 | +39.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,565 | $1,285.53 | +42.8% | Feb 8, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,400 | $1,251.75 | +27.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,301.93 | +41.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,800 | $1,301.93 | +64.2% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,301.93 | +27.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $1,871 | $1,450 | +70.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,428.44 | +36.8% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $1,804 | $1,428.39 | +64.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,697 | $1,377.42 | +54.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,660 | $1,330.3 | +51.4% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,647 | $1,270.08 | +50.2% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,600 | $1,306.32 | +46.0% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,450 | $1,285.85 | +32.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,284.38 | +25.0% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $1,420 | $1,289.29 | +29.5% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $1,490 | $1,275.96 | +35.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,600 | $1,574.85 | +46.0% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,545 | $1,524.23 | +40.9% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,710 | $1,470.68 | +56.0% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,553 | $1,391.86 | +41.7% | May 7, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,300 | $1,399.57 | +18.6% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $1,580 | $1,394.11 | +44.1% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,348 | $1,254.11 | +23.0% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,575 | $1,237.37 | +43.7% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,500 | $1,321.83 | +36.8% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,524 | $1,339.48 | +39.0% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bert Subin | $1,325 | $1,325.75 | +20.9% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $1,440 | $1,338 | +31.4% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $793 | $742.5 | -27.7% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $765 | $611.3 | -30.2% | Dec 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $636.54 | -39.8% | Nov 28, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $735 | $640.02 | -33.0% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ronald Epstein | $790 | $625.25 | -27.9% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Barclays | David E. Strauss | $710 | $629.63 | -35.2% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $695 | $660.61 | -36.6% | Nov 18, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $708 | $658.93 | -35.4% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $732 | $599.56 | -33.2% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Spingarn | $712 | $629.11 | -35.0% | Aug 6, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $718 | $578.24 | -34.5% | May 12, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTransDigm Group Incorporated is a global aerospace enterprise specializing in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide array of aircraft components. Operating across the United States and internationally, its business is structured around three distinct divisions. The Power & Control division focuses on critical systems, providing solutions such as electromechanical actuators and control mechanisms, engine ignition and related technologies, precision pumps and valves, power regulation equipment, specialized electric motors and generators, energy storage units, data communication and power management systems, diverse sensors, switching gear, and material handling equipment including hoists and cargo systems. This segment caters to a broad clientele, including engine and power system manufacturers, airlines, independent maintenance providers, governmental defense agencies, and aircraft repair facilities. The Airframe segment delivers structural and interior components.…
Historical context
All TDG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T04:40:41.928333+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T04:40:41.925438+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.