Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1848.6%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
TransDigm Group Incorporated · TDG · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q1 2025
TransDigm maintains guidance as aftermarket and defense demand lead
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: strong commercial aftermarket and defense demand, high profitability, and maintained guidance provide evidence of resilience. The thesis remains exposed to Boeing's production recovery, uneven refurbishment demand, supply-chain conditions, and possible margin pressure.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$61.07B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $7.83
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $2.03B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.2%
Up to 20 sessions
TDGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TDG FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TDG's -3.3% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in TDG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for TDG after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasizes continued aftermarket and defense strength alongside a decline in commercial OEM revenue. Guidance was maintained rather than raised, while management continued to highlight M&A, share repurchases, aftermarket investment, and Boeing-related execution risks.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, according to the transcript analysis.
Key takeaways
- Commercial aftermarket revenue grew 9% and defense revenue grew 11%, while commercial OEM revenue declined 4%.
- The transcript analysis highlights a 52.9% EBITDA margin and $800 million of free cash flow.
- Management maintained full-year revenue guidance of $8.85 billion and EBITDA guidance of $4.685 billion.
- Capital allocation priorities include reinvestment, disciplined M&A, and continued share repurchases.
Management priorities
- Pursue additional small- and mid-size acquisitions aligned with the company's return model.
- Continue disciplined share repurchases and potentially explore dividends.
- Invest in engine and freight aftermarket capabilities.
- Monitor OEM production rates and supply-chain dynamics.
- Continue collaboration with DOGE and DoD to streamline government procurement.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,104.84Current
$660Low
$1,367.83Average
$1,871High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2026 | |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2024 |
| Alembic Global | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 16, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 22, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 4, 2019 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2019 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2015 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 13, 2014 |
| Great Lakes | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 9, 2012 |
| Auriga | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 30, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,104.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $1,134.24 | +17.7% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,200 | $1,114.25 | +8.6% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,745 | $1,107.99 | +57.9% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,116.2 | +26.7% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $1,331 | $1,140.32 | +20.5% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Strauss | $1,450 | $1,225.25 | +31.2% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,625 | $1,225.25 | +47.1% | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,256.65 | +26.7% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,695 | $1,244.39 | +53.4% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,405 | $1,275.05 | +27.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,345 | $1,215.34 | +21.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,575 | $1,215.08 | +42.6% | May 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,645 | $1,240.1 | +48.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,350 | $1,191.33 | +22.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,680 | $1,191.33 | +52.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,525 | $1,191.33 | +38.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,565 | $1,285.53 | +41.6% | Feb 8, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,400 | $1,251.75 | +26.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,301.93 | +40.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,800 | $1,301.93 | +62.9% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,301.93 | +26.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $1,871 | $1,450 | +69.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,428.44 | +35.8% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $1,804 | $1,428.39 | +63.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,697 | $1,377.42 | +53.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,660 | $1,330.3 | +50.2% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,647 | $1,270.08 | +49.1% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,600 | $1,306.32 | +44.8% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,450 | $1,285.85 | +31.2% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,284.38 | +24.0% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $1,420 | $1,289.29 | +28.5% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $1,490 | $1,275.96 | +34.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,600 | $1,574.85 | +44.8% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,545 | $1,524.23 | +39.8% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,710 | $1,470.68 | +54.8% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,553 | $1,391.86 | +40.6% | May 7, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,300 | $1,399.57 | +17.7% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $1,580 | $1,394.11 | +43.0% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,348 | $1,254.11 | +22.0% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,575 | $1,237.37 | +42.6% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,500 | $1,321.83 | +35.8% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,524 | $1,339.48 | +37.9% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bert Subin | $1,325 | $1,325.75 | +19.9% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $1,440 | $1,338 | +30.3% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $793 | $742.5 | -28.2% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $765 | $611.3 | -30.8% | Dec 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $636.54 | -40.3% | Nov 28, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $735 | $640.02 | -33.5% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ronald Epstein | $790 | $625.25 | -28.5% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Barclays | David E. Strauss | $710 | $629.63 | -35.7% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $695 | $660.61 | -37.1% | Nov 18, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $708 | $658.93 | -35.9% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $732 | $599.56 | -33.7% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Spingarn | $712 | $629.11 | -35.6% | Aug 6, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $718 | $578.24 | -35.0% | May 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TDG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTransDigm Group Incorporated is a global aerospace enterprise specializing in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide array of aircraft components. Operating across the United States and internationally, its business is structured around three distinct divisions. The Power & Control division focuses on critical systems, providing solutions such as electromechanical actuators and control mechanisms, engine ignition and related technologies, precision pumps and valves, power regulation equipment, specialized electric motors and generators, energy storage units, data communication and power management systems, diverse sensors, switching gear, and material handling equipment including hoists and cargo systems. This segment caters to a broad clientele, including engine and power system manufacturers, airlines, independent maintenance providers, governmental defense agencies, and aircraft repair facilities. The Airframe segment delivers structural and interior components.…
Historical context
All TDG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.2% | -8.5% | Comfort Systems USA: Strong Growth, Record Backlog, Margin Watchpoints |
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| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -5.9% | -3.4% | Snap-on: C&I strength offsets organic sales pressure in Q3 |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | +1.7% | Honeywell Raises 2026 Outlook as Backlog and Forge Support Growth |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.0% | +7.0% | Lockheed Martin: backlog and guidance rise, with execution risks |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | +3.1% | Norfolk Southern posts strong Q3 as capex outlook rises |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the TDG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-28T12:09:40.218226+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T17:30:41.059015+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T17:30:41.056061+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.