Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish1129.7%
Neutral2054.1%
Bearish616.2%
Molson Coors Beverage Company · TAP · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Molson Coors cuts FY2026 outlook as costs and category softness weigh
The quarter presents a mixed operating picture: management cited improving U.S. share trends and portfolio initiatives, but category softness, promotional pressure and elevated costs were significant enough to prompt a lower full-year outlook. The supplied analysis supports tracking whether the initiatives and savings can offset those pressures; it does not yet establish that they will.
Why did TAP fall 2.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$7.89B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.46
Consensus $1.44
EPS surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.40B
Consensus $2.94B
Revenue surprise
+16.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.1%
Event window
SPY move
-4.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
TAPSPY benchmark
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Why did TAP fall 2.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in TAP's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TAP after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with Q2, when FY2026 guidance was maintained, Q3 brought a downward revision to full-year guidance. Management also highlighted Coors 0.0, a Carling Black Label launch and refresh, and Monaco's highest-ever net sales revenue quarter.
Guidance delta
FY2026 guidance for net sales, pretax income, EPS and free cash flow was lowered. The supplied analysis does not specify revised ranges or amounts.
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue and earnings declined year over year, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
- Category softness, promotional pressure, freight, fuel and Midwest Premium costs weighed on results.
- Management cited improving U.S. share trends across most regions, while lowering its full-year outlook.
- The company highlighted Coors 0.0, Carling Black Label and continued investment in above-premium and beyond-beer portfolios.
- A $450 million cost-savings program is intended to offset some inflationary pressure; management also plans to continue dividends and share repurchases.
Management priorities
- Continue Horizon 2030 execution, with emphasis on local execution.
- Roll out Coors 0.0 nationally and pursue Carling brand initiatives.
- Expand above-premium and beyond-beer portfolios, including Peroni, Fever-Tree and Monaco.
- Build supply-chain resilience, including vertical integration of aluminum can supply.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$40.46Current
$36Low
$53.68Average
$75High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 6, 2023 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 4, 2023 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 2, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Feb 22, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Bryan Garnier | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 6, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 26, 2019 |
| Redburn | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Oct 11, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2019 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Aug 2, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 4, 2017 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 23, 2015 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 9, 2014 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 9, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 16, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $40.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $39.03 | -11.0% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $43.04 | +11.2% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $41.18 | +1.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $40.86 | -1.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $39.27 | +1.3% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $46 | $41.46 | +13.7% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $42.14 | +1.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $42 | $42.74 | +3.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $44.54 | +6.3% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.21 | +28.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $48.17 | +11.2% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $50.81 | +11.2% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $50.81 | +43.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $53.22 | +33.5% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $49.05 | +21.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $50.64 | -1.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $49.64 | +23.6% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.47 | +23.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.45 | +23.6% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $50 | $44.67 | +23.6% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $44.83 | +60.7% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $48 | $43.67 | +18.6% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $43.31 | +33.5% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $49 | $45.85 | +21.1% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $52 | $45.76 | +28.5% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | William Kirk | $71 | $56.95 | +75.5% | May 20, 2025 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $61 | $60.96 | +50.8% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $74 | $60.03 | +82.9% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $59 | $52.1 | +45.8% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $57 | $53.07 | +40.9% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $47 | $53.98 | +16.2% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Trevor Stirling | $61 | $51.24 | +50.8% | Jul 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $68 | $57.26 | +68.1% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $67 | $67.81 | +65.6% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $75 | $66.63 | +85.4% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $69 | $67.24 | +70.5% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.58 | +48.3% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $50 | $54.5 | +23.6% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Bryan Garnier & Co Ltd | Nikolaas Faes | $54 | $51.67 | +33.5% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $54 | $55.38 | +33.5% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Vivien Azer | $55 | $55.86 | +35.9% | Jun 24, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $54.25 | +26.1% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | William Kirk | $64 | $49.05 | +58.2% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Vivien Azer | $50 | $44.5 | +23.6% | Nov 1, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $42 | $43.42 | +3.8% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $55 | $43.42 | +35.9% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Guggenheim | Laurent Grandet | $75 | $48.31 | +85.4% | Jul 29, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Trevor Stirling | $74 | $56.47 | +82.9% | May 24, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMolson Coors Beverage Company is a global entity engaged in the production, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of beer and other malt-based beverages. Its extensive operations span the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's product lineup also features flavored malt beverages, craft beers, and convenient ready-to-drink selections. Founded in 1774, the firm, headquartered in Golden, Colorado, was previously known as Molson Coors Brewing Company before officially adopting its current name, Molson Coors Beverage Company, in January 2020.
Historical context
All TAP earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.8% | -2.8% | US Foods lifts FY2026 outlook as share gains and AI support growth |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | -1.9% | Monster’s international growth remains strong, while mix and input costs weigh on margins |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FNFFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 20260.0% EPS+6.6% move
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
- STEFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026+9.7% EPS+2.5% move
- IRMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+4.6% EPS-11.1% move
Missed on EPS
- WPMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-1.1% EPS+2.2% move
- CPTFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-27.2% EPS-3.1% move
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
- UHALFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026-15.4% EPS-3.2% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T20:20:04.349659+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T09:10:42.999259+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T09:10:42.996512+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.