Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy46 ratings
Bullish2554.3%
Neutral2043.5%
Bearish12.2%
Constellation Brands, Inc. · STZ · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2026
STZ: Margin Beat Meets Q4 Cost and Demand Headwinds
The transcript supports a balanced view: pricing, cost savings, Pacifico momentum, distribution gains and planned capacity expansion provide evidence for durable growth, while volume declines, Q4 cost pressure and macro softness argue against treating demand resilience as established.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Defensive
$19.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.06
Consensus $2.63
EPS surprise
+16.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.22B
Consensus $2.15B
Revenue surprise
+3.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+5.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.1%
Up to 20 sessions
STZSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about STZ FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did STZ rise 5.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in STZ's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for STZ after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Q3 beer margins exceeded expectations despite volume decline. Management now highlights greater near-term pressure from aluminum tariffs, depreciation timing and seasonal volume, while emphasizing Pacifico momentum, broader distribution and capacity expansion through FY28.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management expects Q4 margin pressure from lower seasonal volume, aluminum tariffs and depreciation timing.
Key takeaways
- Q3 beer margins beat expectations despite volume decline, supported by pricing and cost savings.
- Pacifico is gaining share and distribution remains a central growth lever.
- Q4 margins face pressure from lower volume, aluminum tariffs and depreciation timing.
- Macro softness, particularly among Hispanic consumers, remains a demand risk.
Management priorities
- Expand capacity by 7 million hectoliters through FY28
- Invest in Pacifico and other growth brands
- Continue pricing and new packaging initiatives
- Use distribution expansion and event-driven promotion to support demand
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$112.99Current
$122Low
$224.3Average
$335High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 3, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 1, 2021 |
| OTR Global | Mixed | Positive | Downgrade | Jun 18, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 13, 2021 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 25, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 3, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 1, 2019 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Negative | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 17, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 2, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 2, 2018 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2015 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 1, 2015 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 20, 2014 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 8, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | May 16, 2013 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 22, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $112.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Nadine Sarwat | $180 | $112.92 | +59.3% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $117.59 | +28.3% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $122 | $118.39 | +8.0% | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $117.44 | +41.6% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $123.03 | +32.8% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $136 | $122.74 | +20.4% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $134.36 | +16.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $150 | $138.34 | +32.8% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $158 | $136.88 | +39.8% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $136.88 | +23.0% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $136.88 | +30.1% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $137.49 | +54.0% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $143.36 | +39.0% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $167.96 | +54.9% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $167.96 | +50.5% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $167.96 | +37.2% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $185 | $167.96 | +63.7% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $167.96 | +64.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $167.96 | +41.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $185 | $167.96 | +63.7% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $147 | +31.0% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $190 | $147.51 | +68.2% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $168 | $147.89 | +48.7% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $197 | $147.96 | +74.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $140.49 | +46.0% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Bonnie Herzog | $160 | $141.17 | +41.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $142.59 | +36.3% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $142.02 | +41.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $135 | $130.45 | +19.5% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $142.76 | +30.1% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $180 | $140.14 | +59.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $138.71 | +41.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $140.51 | +54.9% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $145.88 | +72.6% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | William Kirk | $209 | $147.28 | +85.0% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $170 | $146.49 | +50.5% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $151.26 | +73.5% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Boonie Herzog | $225 | $161.32 | +99.1% | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $202 | $161.53 | +78.8% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $195 | $161.53 | +72.6% | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Bill Chappell | $215 | $187.07 | +90.3% | May 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $181.59 | +81.4% | Mar 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $186.25 | +155.8% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $202 | $178.35 | +78.8% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $305 | $245.71 | +169.9% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $300 | $246.67 | +165.5% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| HSBC | Sorabh Daga | $285 | $246.67 | +152.2% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | William Kirk | $298 | $246.36 | +163.7% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $300 | $246 | +165.5% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Bill Chappell | $255 | $243.65 | +125.7% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $309 | $246.67 | +173.5% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $309 | $255.67 | +173.5% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $256 | $246.78 | +126.6% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Filippo Falorni | $305 | $246.78 | +169.9% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $280 | $244.5 | +147.8% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $295 | $248.26 | +161.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Bonnie Herzog | $300 | $259.14 | +165.5% | Jul 5, 2024 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $335 | $250.37 | +196.5% | Jul 3, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $288 | $245.49 | +154.9% | May 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $311 | $258.77 | +175.2% | May 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $306 | $262.24 | +170.8% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Bill Chappell | $265 | $262.24 | +134.5% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $308 | $268.34 | +172.6% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $314 | $268.34 | +177.9% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $315 | $268.34 | +178.8% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $264 | $268.34 | +133.6% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $300 | $268.34 | +165.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $310 | $268.34 | +174.4% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $270 | $267.4 | +139.0% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $295 | $266 | +161.1% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $295 | $264.31 | +161.1% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $262 | $268.14 | +131.9% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $300 | $269.35 | +165.5% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | William Kirk | $311 | $238.7 | +175.2% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $305 | $249.36 | +169.9% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Gerald Pascarelli | $300 | $248.33 | +165.5% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $231 | $246.85 | +104.4% | Jun 30, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $231.52 | +130.1% | Jan 31, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $214.23 | +121.3% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $277 | $215 | +145.2% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $212.89 | +136.3% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $208.68 | +134.5% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $208.68 | +121.3% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $208.68 | +77.0% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $227.79 | +139.0% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $232.77 | +116.8% | Dec 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $247.38 | +120.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $281 | $235.43 | +148.7% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $230.03 | +139.0% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Kevin Grundy | $305 | $230.03 | +169.9% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $275 | $230.34 | +143.4% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $294 | $229.71 | +160.2% | Apr 4, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Kevin Grundy | $310 | $229.71 | +174.4% | Apr 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $278 | $233.71 | +146.0% | Apr 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Christopher Carey | $275 | $225.85 | +143.4% | Mar 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $277 | $248.64 | +145.2% | Jan 15, 2022 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $290 | $245.39 | +156.7% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| UBS | Sean King | $285 | $245.39 | +152.2% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Wendy Nicholson | $265 | $245.39 | +134.5% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Laurent Grandet | $242 | $244.01 | +114.2% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Vivien Azer | $275 | $233.93 | +143.4% | Dec 8, 2021 |
| HSBC | Carlos Laboy | $262 | $217.68 | +131.9% | Oct 13, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Trevor Stirling | $305 | $234.1 | +169.9% | May 24, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Greg Badishkanian | $265 | $223.32 | +134.5% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on STZ the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationConstellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Rochester, New York.
Historical context
All STZ earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -3.5% | McCormick Maintains 2026 Outlook Despite Consumer Volume Risks |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the STZ recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T20:56:11.491300+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T20:56:11.488446+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.