Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1453.9%
Neutral1142.3%
Bearish13.8%
Steel Dynamics, Inc. · STLD · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Steel Dynamics: Record Shipments, Aluminum Ramp Progress
Steel Dynamics' Q3 analysis supports a constructive operating narrative: record shipments, resilient steel demand and progress in aluminum provide support, but the next phase depends on execution, yields, scrap utilization and substantial capital investment.
Reported After market closeNASDAQBasic Materials
$35.14B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$5.26
Consensus $5.48
EPS surprise
-4.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.51B
Consensus $6.43B
Revenue surprise
+1.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
STLDSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about STLD FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did STLD fall 0.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in STLD's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for STLD after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis adds evidence that a coolant-related yield issue was resolved, identifies a second recycled slab center under construction and raises the projected 2027 capex plan to more than $600 million.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook while highlighting a $600 million-plus projected 2027 capex program and continued aluminum ramp-up.
Key takeaways
- Q3 results showed record steel shipments and strong cash generation, according to management's analysis.
- The aluminum flat-rolled ramp is progressing after a coolant-related yield issue was resolved.
- Management sees demand support from construction, reshoring and automotive qualification.
- Capital investment remains a central part of the growth plan, with a second recycled slab center under construction.
Management priorities
- Complete the aluminum mill ramp and improve yields and scrap content.
- Expand recycled slab capacity and automotive product qualifications.
- Invest in Sinton, structural facilities and other growth projects while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$244.37Current
$112Low
$207.05Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 19, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 15, 2021 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Rosenblatt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 9, 2016 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $244.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $285 | $240.54 | +16.6% | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $245.35 | +5.2% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $276 | $263.72 | +12.9% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $259.74 | +22.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $260 | $239.1 | +6.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $275 | $233.52 | +12.5% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $272 | $233.52 | +11.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $243.69 | +7.2% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $249.91 | +10.5% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $270.13 | +19.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $275.13 | +19.9% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $231.84 | +10.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $195.3 | -15.3% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $190 | $173.24 | -22.2% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $172.16 | -20.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Philip Gibbs | $190 | $172.74 | -22.2% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $165.43 | -22.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $165 | $155.97 | -32.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $156.57 | -29.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Phillip Gibbs | $165 | $152.95 | -32.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $153.82 | -31.7% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $153.82 | -26.3% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $158 | $147.62 | -35.3% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $140 | $126.46 | -42.7% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Alexander Hacking | $160 | $129.86 | -34.5% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $130 | $130.18 | -46.8% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $155 | $129.41 | -36.6% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $127 | $115.12 | -48.0% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $140 | $115.16 | -42.7% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $145 | $114.28 | -40.7% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $138 | $115.05 | -43.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $135 | $127.28 | -44.8% | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $112 | $126.55 | -54.2% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $135 | $121.81 | -44.8% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $150 | $133.93 | -38.6% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $120 | $139.97 | -50.9% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $94.53 | -53.3% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Glick | $117 | $91.49 | -52.1% | Apr 21, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSteel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing).…
Historical context
All STLD earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA Alcoa Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.5% | +7.2% | Alcoa: Strong Q3 execution, with safety and transaction risks ahead |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-20T21:05:27.239245+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-20T01:23:14.154112+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-20T21:10:40.531034+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-20T21:10:40.528251+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-20. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.