Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1453.9%
Neutral1142.3%
Bearish13.8%
Steel Dynamics, Inc. · STLD · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
STLD: Aluminum Progress Offsets Outage and Execution Risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: record shipments, cash generation and aluminum progress are positives, while outages, commissioning, energy and tariff dependence remain material risks.
Reported Before market openNASDAQBasic Materials
$33.02B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.82
Consensus $1.70
EPS surprise
+7.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.41B
Consensus $4.55B
Revenue surprise
-3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+10.1%
Up to 20 sessions
STLDSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about STLD FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did STLD fall 4.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in STLD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for STLD after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the supplied prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis describes aluminum as EBITDA-positive in December with a 90% utilization target by year-end 2026, while planned capex is described as about $600 million and the capex outlook as decreasing.
Guidance delta
No guidance delta was provided in the supplied current analysis.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes record 2025 steel shipments and $1.4 billion of operating cash flow.
- Management highlighted an aluminum mill that was EBITDA-positive in December and is targeted to reach 90% utilization by year-end 2026.
- The supplied analysis describes 2026 capex of about $600 million, focused on Sinton, aluminum and value-added lines.
- Planned mill outages, commissioning risk, energy costs and tariff dependence remain key watch items.
Management priorities
- Commission and ramp the aluminum flat-rolled operation.
- Complete the second tandem cold mill and first cash line.
- Focus planned 2026 capex on Sinton, aluminum and value-added lines.
- Continue dividend growth and variable share repurchases.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$230.39Previous close
$112Low
$206.4Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 15, 2021 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Rosenblatt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 9, 2016 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $230.39. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $245.35 | +11.5% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $276 | $263.72 | +19.8% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $259.74 | +30.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $260 | $239.1 | +12.9% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $275 | $233.52 | +19.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $272 | $233.52 | +18.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $243.69 | +13.7% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $249.91 | +17.2% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $270.13 | +26.3% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $275.13 | +27.2% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $231.84 | +17.2% | May 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $195.3 | -10.2% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $190 | $173.24 | -17.5% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $172.16 | -15.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Philip Gibbs | $190 | $172.74 | -17.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $165.43 | -17.5% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $165 | $155.97 | -28.4% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $156.57 | -25.3% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Phillip Gibbs | $165 | $152.95 | -28.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $153.82 | -27.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $153.82 | -21.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $158 | $147.62 | -31.4% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $140 | $126.46 | -39.2% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Alexander Hacking | $160 | $129.86 | -30.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $130 | $130.18 | -43.6% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $155 | $129.41 | -32.7% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $127 | $115.12 | -44.9% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $140 | $115.16 | -39.2% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $145 | $114.28 | -37.1% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $138 | $115.05 | -40.1% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $135 | $127.28 | -41.4% | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $112 | $126.55 | -51.4% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $135 | $121.81 | -41.4% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $150 | $133.93 | -34.9% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $120 | $139.97 | -47.9% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $94.53 | -50.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Glick | $117 | $91.49 | -49.2% | Apr 21, 2022 |
Track every rating change on STLD the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSteel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing).…
Historical context
All STLD earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
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Get the STLD recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T09:31:01.743534+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T09:31:01.740788+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.