Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish2083.3%
Neutral416.7%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Sempra · SRE · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Sempra raises Oncor investment outlook as California regulatory risk persists
Sempra’s Q3 discussion supports a growth case led by Texas transmission demand and a larger Oncor investment plan, balanced by California regulatory uncertainty and execution risks on incremental projects.
Why did SRE fall 3.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$52.20B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.40
Consensus $1.22
EPS surprise
+14.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.19B
Consensus $3.31B
Revenue surprise
-3.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.7%
Event window
SPY move
-4.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
SRESPY benchmark
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Why did SRE fall 3.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in SRE's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for SRE after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management said Texas transmission business growth reached double digits, with a 33 GW peak, and described an approximately 20% increase to Oncor’s capital plan. The company now expects to discuss its 2027–2031 base capital plan in February. It also said a California regulatory issue could push 2027 earnings to the low end of guidance if the GRC petition is not corrected.
Guidance delta
Management guided to the high end of its 2026 EPS range and affirmed 2027 guidance. The Q3 analysis describes guidance sentiment as maintained; the transcript supplied no new numeric EPS range.
Key takeaways
- Texas transmission demand and data-center load growth remain central growth drivers in management’s account.
- Oncor’s capital plan is expected to increase by approximately 20%, with incremental opportunities outside the base plan.
- Management expects to complete the SI Partners transaction and use proceeds to reduce debt.
- California GRC uncertainty could weigh on 2027 earnings guidance.
Management priorities
- Advance Oncor transmission investment and projects including Golden State Power Link.
- Complete the SI Partners transaction and reduce debt with proceeds.
- Progress California regulatory matters and Texas transmission approvals.
- Present the 2027–2031 base capital plan in February.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$78.57Current
$36.25Low
$86.2Average
$118High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 31, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2025 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 6, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 28, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2022 | |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2021 |
| CFRA | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 11, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 21, 2018 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $78.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $97.5 | $83.5 | +24.1% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $81.74 | +27.3% | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $94 | $82.37 | +19.6% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $90 | $81.34 | +14.5% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $76.9 | +5.6% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $96 | $83.8 | +22.2% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $81.7 | +23.5% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $84.32 | +6.9% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $86.53 | +27.3% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $108 | $92.88 | +37.5% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $92.79 | +29.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $92.78 | +28.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $95.15 | +31.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $91.9 | +33.6% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $90.43 | +32.4% | May 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $93.27 | +32.4% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $93.38 | +50.2% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $108 | $93.38 | +37.5% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $96.16 | +33.6% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $93.34 | +28.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $95 | $86.22 | +20.9% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $97 | $86.8 | +23.5% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $85.98 | +27.3% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $85.98 | +17.1% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $97 | $85.98 | +23.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $84.89 | +20.9% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $112 | $92.55 | +42.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $96 | $87.91 | +22.2% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $88.57 | +15.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $91.12 | +24.7% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $93.17 | +46.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $99 | $91.88 | +26.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $99 | $92.29 | +26.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $92.29 | +13.3% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $92.29 | +34.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $91.29 | +28.5% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $92.46 | +33.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $81.72 | +1.8% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $71 | $74.9 | -9.6% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $87 | $76.75 | +10.7% | May 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $89 | $73.31 | +13.3% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $75 | $69.73 | -4.5% | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $70 | +9.5% | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julian Dumoulin-Smith | $98 | $85.96 | +24.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $96 | $84.83 | +22.2% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $93 | $84.83 | +18.4% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $89 | $83.63 | +13.3% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $85 | $83.02 | +8.2% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $93 | $81.37 | +18.4% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $80 | $81.67 | +1.8% | Aug 23, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $88 | $79.96 | +12.0% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $87 | $78.99 | +10.7% | Aug 13, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $90 | $77.57 | +14.5% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $86 | $77.67 | +9.5% | May 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $79 | $70.97 | +0.5% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $77 | $71.96 | -2.0% | Feb 22, 2024 |
| Raymond James | James Thalacker | $84 | $74.8 | +6.9% | Jan 11, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $84 | $74.84 | +6.9% | Jan 11, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Christopher Turnure | $86 | $76.01 | +9.5% | Jan 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $76 | $70.12 | -3.3% | Nov 1, 2023 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $156 | $70.3 | +98.5% | Oct 19, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $42.75 | $41.21 | -45.6% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $41.34 | -42.7% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $43.12 | -46.5% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $39.5 | $32.68 | -49.7% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jonathan Arnold | $39.5 | $34.18 | -49.7% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Sarah Akers | $36.25 | $30.9 | -53.9% | Nov 8, 2021 |
Track every rating change on SRE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSempra, an energy holding company founded in 1998 and headquartered in San Diego, California, conducts its operations both domestically and internationally. The firm adopted its current name in July 2021, having previously been known as Sempra Energy. Through its San Diego Gas & Electric Company division, Sempra delivers electricity to approximately 3.6 million individuals and natural gas to roughly 3.3 million individuals across a 4,100 square mile service area.…
Historical context
All SRE earningsUtilities peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +3.8% | BIP reports 10% per-unit FFO growth as AI infrastructure expands |
| BIP-PA Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | Brookfield Infrastructure’s FFO growth meets rising AI execution demands |
| SREA Sempra | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +14.8% | -0.1% | Sempra sees Texas transmission growth offset California regulatory risk |
| SOJD Southern Company (The) Series 2 | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | -1.2% | Southern Company sees stronger load growth, alongside investment and regulatory risks |
| SOJE Southern Company (The) Series 2 | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | -1.3% | Southern Company Q3: Large-load pipeline and capex plans expand |
| SO The Southern Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.5% | +0.2% | Southern Company beats Q3 estimates as large-load demand accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- EOGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+8.9% EPS+2.2% move
- PBAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+13.5% EPS+1.0% move
- FNFFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 20260.0% EPS+6.6% move
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
Missed on EPS
- DKNGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-29.2% EPS-23.4% move
- WPMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-1.1% EPS+2.2% move
- CPTFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-27.2% EPS-3.1% move
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T21:18:07.811890+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T11:10:43.480881+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T11:10:43.478218+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.