Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish533.4%
Neutral853.3%
Bearish213.3%
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. · SQM · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
SQM: Record lithium volumes and expansion projects remain on track
The current analysis supports a constructive operating thesis for SQM: record lithium volumes, improved pricing, strong iodine margins and capacity expansion provide evidence of demand and execution progress. The thesis remains conditional because lithium-price volatility, project timing, costs, regulation and possible sodium-ion substitution are unresolved.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$18.32B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.64
Consensus $0.75
EPS surprise
-14.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.32B
Consensus $1.25B
Revenue surprise
+5.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.0%
Up to 20 sessions
SQMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SQM FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SQM fall 0.9% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in SQM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for SQM after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management was characterized as more confident. The current analysis added a first commercial Kwinana lithium-hydroxide shipment, reported record lithium volumes and a 14% price increase, highlighted iodine's contribution to gross margin, and described major expansion projects as on track.
Guidance delta
Raised: management targeted approximately 260,000 LCE of lithium production in 2026, higher iodine capacity, and continued demand growth.
Key takeaways
- Record lithium sales volumes and a 14% price increase supported higher revenue.
- Iodine contributed approximately 42% of gross margin amid record prices and tight supply.
- Nova Andino, Mount Holland, Kwinana and the seawater pipeline were described as on track.
- Management cited continued demand growth from electric vehicles, energy storage and specialty agriculture.
- The first commercial shipment of lithium hydroxide from Kwinana was a new milestone.
Management priorities
- Target approximately 260,000 LCE of lithium production in 2026.
- Ramp Kwinana toward full production, anticipated by 2027.
- Increase iodine capacity and complete the Tarapacá seawater pipeline.
- Advance Nova Andino, Mount Holland and exploration activities.
- Maintain ESG initiatives and sustainability performance.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$64.44Current
$35Low
$71.86Average
$104High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2022 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 8, 2019 |
| Miller Tabak | Hold | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 2, 2013 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 21, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $64.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $104 | $81.96 | +61.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $77.36 | +45.9% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $67.16 | +44.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $82 | $72.95 | +27.3% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $71.94 | +52.1% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $83.42 | +55.2% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $105 | $84.18 | +62.9% | May 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $89.75 | +64.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $71.86 | -17.8% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $91 | $81.88 | +41.2% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $77.76 | +36.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $77.71 | +39.7% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $64.17 | +22.6% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $63.06 | -2.2% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $80 | $58.26 | +24.1% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.62 | +19.5% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $46 | $44.44 | -28.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $50 | $43.11 | -22.4% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $55 | $37.12 | -14.6% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $55 | $38.64 | -14.6% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Isabella Simonato | $38 | $37.7 | -41.0% | Aug 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $46.5 | $35.98 | -27.8% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Andres Castanos-Mollor | $35 | $37.73 | -45.7% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $65 | $46.52 | +0.9% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $45 | $49.84 | -30.2% | May 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $42 | $49.72 | -34.8% | May 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $62.8 | $47.61 | -2.5% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $115 | $90.07 | +78.5% | Aug 22, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A., commonly known as SQM, is a major global producer and distributor of a diverse array of chemical and mineral products. Its extensive offerings include specialized plant nutrition solutions, iodine and its various chemical compounds, lithium and its derivatives, potassium chloride and sulfate, and a range of industrial chemicals, alongside other related products and services. Among its key agricultural products are specialty plant nutrients like potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, and sodium potassium nitrate, as well as customized blends and advanced fertilizers. The company also manufactures iodine and its derivatives, which are widely utilized across medical, pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial sectors. These applications encompass crucial ingredients for x-ray contrast agents, polarizing films essential for LCD and LED displays, various antiseptics, biocides, and disinfectants, components for pharmaceutical synthesis, electronic materials, and elements vital for pigments and dyes.…
Historical context
All SQM earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
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- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the SQM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T16:26:11.063014+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T16:26:11.060192+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.