Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish2784.4%
Neutral515.6%
Bearish00.0%
Semtech Corporation · SMTC · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Semtech Q3: Data-Center Growth and ACC/LPO Ramp Lead Outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional outlook: data-center demand, ACC/LPO adoption and Force Sensing broaden Semtech's growth drivers, while adoption timing, product mix, capacity and execution risks remain material.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$17.96B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.48
Consensus $0.44
EPS surprise
+7.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$267.0M
Consensus $266.4M
Revenue surprise
+0.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.9%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.3%
Up to 20 sessions
SMTCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SMTC FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SMTC rise 2.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in SMTC's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for SMTC after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds record data-center sales, the Force Sensing acquisition, Gen 4 LoRa Plus transceivers and convertible-note refinancing to the prior narrative. It also shifts the near-term focus toward ACC/LPO adoption, foundry capacity and divestiture execution.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance; the Q4 outlook calls for 9% year-over-year sales growth, with data-center margin expansion and modest low-margin IoT mix headwinds.
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue grew 13% year over year to $267 million, according to the supplied analysis.
- Record data-center sales of $56.2 million increased 30% year over year.
- ACC and LPO are positioned as lower-power alternatives for hyperscaler data-center designs.
- The Force Sensing acquisition expands the sensing portfolio and cross-selling opportunity.
- A convertible note refinancing reduced annualized interest expense to under $3 million.
Management priorities
- Ramp ACC shipments for hyperscalers starting in 2026.
- Build LPO revenue contribution and sample 1.6 Tb drivers and TIAs.
- Integrate and cross-sell Force Sensing products.
- Expand wafer-capacity partnerships to mitigate geopolitical risks.
- Continue R&D investment in 1.6 Tb transceiver and driver technologies.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$198.99Current
$40Low
$161.52Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Summit Insights Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 17, 2022 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 3, 2021 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 18, 2021 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 28, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 27, 2019 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 29, 2019 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 4, 2018 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 20, 2017 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 1, 2016 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2015 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 27, 2015 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 20, 2014 |
| Williams Financial | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Williams Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2013 |
| Lazard | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Morgan Keegan | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $198.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $220 | $194.88 | +10.6% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $174.33 | +0.5% | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $140.8 | +50.8% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Gus Richard | $182 | $140.8 | -8.5% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $140.88 | -2.0% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $142.62 | +10.6% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $127.52 | +15.6% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $124.88 | -22.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $126.6 | +15.6% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $168.26 | +8.0% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $205 | $159.28 | +3.0% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $164.46 | -12.1% | May 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Searle | $190 | $164.46 | -4.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $164.46 | +0.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Tristan Gerra | $225 | $164.46 | +13.1% | May 27, 2026 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $200 | $164.46 | +0.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $200 | $164.46 | +0.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $225 | $164.46 | +13.1% | May 27, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Tristan Gerra | $225 | $164.46 | +13.1% | May 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $188 | $164.46 | -5.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $156.78 | -22.1% | May 26, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Rick Schafer | $150 | $146.53 | -24.6% | May 22, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $157 | $141.85 | -21.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $134.79 | -14.6% | May 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $132.51 | -17.1% | May 18, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $105 | $81.23 | -47.2% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Rick Schafer | $110 | $81.25 | -44.7% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $100 | $85.14 | -49.7% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $79 | -54.8% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $64.98 | -61.3% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $70.01 | -66.3% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $70.01 | -55.8% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $70 | $70.01 | -64.8% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $80 | $70.01 | -59.8% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $67.93 | -67.8% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $80 | $62.71 | -59.8% | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $80 | $71.45 | -59.8% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Rick Schafer | $81 | $61.98 | -59.3% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.66 | -68.8% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Gus Richard | $53 | $56.84 | -73.4% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $65 | $51 | -67.3% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joseph Moore | $43 | $37.01 | -78.4% | May 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joseph Moore | $30 | $27.75 | -84.9% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $39.6 | -69.8% | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $60 | $31.44 | -69.8% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $75 | $67.16 | -62.3% | Jan 6, 2025 |
| B.Riley Financial | Craig Ellis | $61 | $41.28 | -69.3% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $45 | $31.18 | -77.4% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| CFRA | Angelo Zino | $46 | $37.86 | -76.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $48 | $38.68 | -75.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $50 | $45.62 | -74.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Searle | $50 | $38.68 | -74.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Craig Ellis | $58 | $38.68 | -70.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $55 | $38.68 | -72.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $50 | $38.68 | -74.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $60 | $41.84 | -69.8% | May 29, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $36 | $27.49 | -81.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $45 | $27.49 | -77.4% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| CFRA | Angelo Zino | $32 | $27.49 | -83.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Northland Securities | Gus Richard | $36.5 | $27.49 | -81.7% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Tristan Gerra | $50 | $27.49 | -74.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $40 | $27.49 | -79.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $31 | $27.49 | -84.4% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $38 | $27.49 | -80.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $26 | $27.97 | -86.9% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $30 | $24.5 | -84.9% | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $32 | $22.6 | -83.9% | Sep 13, 2023 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $35 | $25.48 | -82.4% | Sep 6, 2023 |
| Robert W. Baird | Baird Ratings | $40 | $21.4 | -79.9% | Jun 12, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $25 | $22.34 | -87.4% | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $45 | $30.74 | -77.4% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $31.79 | -75.9% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $46.19 | -78.4% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $46.19 | -69.8% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $64.38 | -62.3% | Jun 2, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $64.08 | -63.8% | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $95 | $60.91 | -52.3% | May 5, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSemtech Corporation is a technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and global distribution of advanced analog and mixed-signal semiconductor components, complemented by sophisticated algorithms. The company's extensive product portfolio begins with signal integrity solutions. These encompass crucial optical data communication and video transport products utilized in various infrastructure and industrial environments. It also provides integrated circuits specifically engineered for data centers, corporate networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and high-speed interface applications. Furthermore, Semtech develops video technologies for broadcast purposes and professional audio-visual (AV) needs, including innovative video-over-IP technology. Another significant offering involves protection products, which integrate filter and termination devices with transient voltage suppressors. These components are designed to shield electronic systems from harmful voltage spikes.…
Historical context
All SMTC earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the SMTC recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T15:50:44.900154+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T15:50:44.897366+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.